2022年06月14日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
特別宣佈
香港民意研究所（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民意研究所或其前身港大民研。
香港民研每半年檢視和調整工作一次，部份改變已在五月四日（即民研三周年）之後啟動，包括下調新聞發佈會的次數和啟動網上公民教育工作。我們上星期已正式啟動「一國兩制25周年中期民情總結」，暫時以兩個月為第一階段，逐個星期以不同形式發佈各個項目總結。上星期首先以官員民望打頭陣，本星期再總結六四民情，然後是身份認同和回歸周年，詳情容後公佈。另外，七月開始，我們打算下調定期民意調查的次數，由每月兩次減至每月一次，以便爭取資源進行公民教育和民情總結。同時，民研亦希望教育大眾，數字歸數字，評論歸評論。所有由民調數字引發的個人評論，責任由論者自負，與民研無關。
公報簡要
香港民研於五月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,003名香港居民。最新調查顯示，香港巿民的主流意見繼續認為中國政府當年處理不當、同情北京學生及支持平反六四，但全部數字較一年前大幅下跌，當中認為中國政府當年處理不當以及同情北京學生的比率創歷史新低。同時，不支持平反六四的比率則創歷史新高。另方面，認為中國現時人權狀況較1989年惡劣及估計三年後中國人權狀況會比現時惡劣的比率亦較一年前顯著下跌。較多巿民認為香港人有責任推動中國經濟發展。而認為香港人有責任推動中國民主發展者顯著下跌，並創歷史新低。民主與經濟相比，較多巿民認為香港人應該偏向推動中國經濟發展多於民主發展，同時有較多香港市民認為中國現時應該較著重經濟發展。調查的實效回應比率為40.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 12-20/5/2022 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,003 (包括503個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 40.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-3% |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二一年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2021年版）。 |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
六四事件的最新週年調查結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 12-20/5/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | 1,004 | 1,003 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | 52.5% | 40.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 認為北京學生做法正確比率 | 50%[3] | 52% | 52% | 42%[3] | 36+/-3% | -6%[3] |
| 認為北京學生做法錯誤比率 | 17%[3] | 21% | 20% | 22% | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| 認為中國政府處理正確比率 | 11% | 13% | 15% | 19%[3] | 23+/-3% | +4%[3] |
| 認為中國政府處理錯誤比率 | 68% | 68% | 66% | 54%[3] | 45+/-3% | -9%[3] |
| 支持平反六四比率 | 54% | 59% | 59% | 47%[3] | 40+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| 不支持平反六四比率 | 24% | 23% | 23% | 28%[3] | 30+/-3% | +2% |
| 認為中國現時人權狀況 較1989年有改善比率 |
47%[3] | 44% | 38%[3] | 43%[3] | 50+/-3% | +6%[3] |
| 認為中國現時人權狀況 較1989年惡劣比率 |
28%[3] | 33%[3] | 43%[3] | 34%[3] | 23+/-3% | -11%[3] |
| 估計三年後中國的人權狀況 將較現時有改善比率 |
34%[3] | 32% | 29% | 37%[3] | 37+/-3% | -- |
| 估計三年後中國的人權狀況 將較現時惡劣比率 |
31%[3] | 37%[3] | 44%[3] | 33%[3] | 26+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| 認為香港人有責任推動中國 民主發展比率 |
56% | 62%[3] | 51%[3] | 51% | 45+/-3% | -6%[3] |
| 認為香港人沒有責任推動中國 民主發展比率 |
31% | 28% | 36%[3] | 34% | 36+/-3% | +2% |
| 認為香港人有責任推動中國 經濟發展比率 |
59% | 59% | 45%[3] | 53%[3] | 56+/-3% | +2% |
| 認為香港人沒有責任推動中國 經濟發展比率 |
33% | 35% | 45%[3] | 37%[3] | 33+/-3% | -4% |
| 認為香港人應該偏向推動中國 經濟發展多於民主發展比率 |
35% | 31%[3] | 28% | 34%[3] | 36+/-3% | +2% |
| 認為香港人應該偏向推動中國 民主發展多於經濟發展比率 |
36% | 44%[3] | 44% | 32%[3] | 25+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| 認為中國現時應該較著重 發展經濟比率 |
32% | 31% | 29% | 33% | 35+/-3% | +2% |
| 認為中國現時應該較著重 發展民主比率 |
45% | 50%[3] | 49% | 39%[3] | 30+/-3% | -9%[3] |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
本年度的調查發現，36%被訪市民認為當年北京學生的做法正確，比率顯著下跌，並創歷史新低；認為錯誤的則佔21%。至於當年中國政府處理事件的手法方面，認為正確的比率今年顯著上升至23%，並再創歷史新高；45%則認為不當，比率顯著下跌，並創歷史新低。調查亦發現，支持平反六四的市民顯著下跌，佔40%，創2002年以來新低；不支持平反者佔30%，創歷史新高。
就中國的人權狀況方面，50%被訪市民認為中國現時的人權狀況較1989年時有所改善，較一年前顯著上升，37%則估計三年後中國的人權狀況將較現時有改善。相反，23%被訪市民認為中國現時的人權狀況較1989年時惡劣，26%則估計三年後中國的人權狀況將較現時惡劣，兩者均較一年前顯著下跌。
此外，45%被訪市民認為香港人有責任推動中國的民主發展，比率顯著下跌，並創歷史新低，36%則認為沒有責任。認為香港人有責任推動中國經濟發展者佔56%，認為沒有責任者則佔33%，兩者與一年前比較均變化不大。
民主與經濟相比，36%認為港人應該偏向推動中國的經濟發展多於民主發展，創2010年以來新高。25%則比較重視中國的民主步伐，比率顯著下跌，並創2008年以來新低。另一方面，35%認為中國現時應該較著重發展經濟，創2010年以來新高。30%則傾向民主發展，比率顯著下跌，並創2008年以來新低。
下次新聞公報／發佈會 (暫定)
- [發佈會] 6月17日（星期五）下午二時三十分
我們香港人之青年事務調查
客席評論：黃偉國、李敏剛 - [發佈會] 6月21日（星期二）下午二時三十分
巿民身分認同感總結
客席評論：袁彌昌 - [發佈會] 6月24日（星期五）下午二時三十分
我們香港人之自願醫保
客席評論：鍾劍華 - [新聞公報] 6月28日（星期二）下午二時三十分
特區週年調查總結、政府民望、民情指數及五項核心社會指標
June 14, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.
PORI reviews and adjusts its work once every six months. Some changes have already been started after May 4 (i.e., PORI’s 3rd Anniversary), including reducing the frequency of press conferences and developing online civic education. Last week, we have officially kickstarted the “One Country Two Systems 25-year Mid-term Review”. The first phase of the review will take two months, in different forms of releases each week. We kickstarted with the popularity of officials last week, then June Fourth wrap-up this week, followed by ethnic identity and then handover anniversaries, more details to be announced. Meanwhile, starting from July, we plan to reduce the frequency of our tracking surveys from twice a month to once a month, in order to conserve resources for civic education and mid-term review. Meanwhile, PORI would also like to stress the separation of comments from figures, so that the responsibility of all personal comments arising from our scientific research lies entirely on the commentators concerned, not PORI.
Abstract
PORI successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of May. Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth, but all these figures have registered significant drops from last year, of which the percentages of people holding that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989 and supporting the Beijing students have registered historical lows. Meanwhile, the number of those who did not support a reversion of the official stand has reached a historical high. On the other hand, the percentages of people who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have decreased significantly compared to a year ago. More Hong Kong people think that they have a responsibility to promote economic development in China while the number of respondents who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China decreased significantly and registered a historical low. When comparing democratic and economic development, more respondents think that Hong Kong people should give more weight to the economic development in China, while more Hong Kong people think China should emphasize more on the development of economy now. The effective response rate of the survey is 40.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 12-20/5/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 40.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2021”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2021 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Figures of the latest June Fourth anniversary survey are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | 17-21/5/21 | 12-20/5/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | 1,004 | 1,003 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | 52.5% | 40.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Proportion of respondents believing: | ||||||
| The Beijing students did the right thing | 50%[3] | 52% | 52% | 42%[3] | 36+/-3% | -6%[3] |
| The Beijing students did the wrong thing | 17%[3] | 21% | 20% | 22% | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| The Chinese Government did the right thing | 11% | 13% | 15% | 19%[3] | 23+/-3% | +4%[3] |
| The Chinese Government did the wrong thing | 68% | 68% | 66% | 54%[3] | 45+/-3% | -9%[3] |
| There should be a reversion of the official stand on the incident | 54% | 59% | 59% | 47%[3] | 40+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| There should not be a reversion of the official stand on the incident | 24% | 23% | 23% | 28%[3] | 30+/-3% | +2% |
| China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989 | 47%[3] | 44% | 38%[3] | 43%[3] | 50+/-3% | +6%[3] |
| China’s human rights condition has worsened since 1989 | 28%[3] | 33%[3] | 43%[3] | 34%[3] | 23+/-3% | -11%[3] |
| China’s human rights condition would improve after 3 years | 34%[3] | 32% | 29% | 37%[3] | 37+/-3% | -- |
| China’s human rights condition would worsen after 3 years | 31%[3] | 37%[3] | 44%[3] | 33%[3] | 26+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| HK people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China | 56% | 62%[3] | 51%[3] | 51% | 45+/-3% | -6%[3] |
| HK people have no responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China | 31% | 28% | 36%[3] | 34% | 36+/-3% | +2% |
| HK people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China | 59% | 59% | 45%[3] | 53%[3] | 56+/-3% | +2% |
| HK people have no responsibility to instigate economic development in China | 33% | 35% | 45%[3] | 37%[3] | 33+/-3% | -4% |
| HK people should put more effort on instigating economic than democratic development in China | 35% | 31%[3] | 28% | 34%[3] | 36+/-3% | +2% |
| HK people should put more effort on instigating democratic than economic development in China | 36% | 44%[3] | 44% | 32%[3] | 25+/-3% | -7%[3] |
| China should emphasize economic development more | 32% | 31% | 29% | 33% | 35+/-3% | +2% |
| China should emphasize democratic development more | 45% | 50%[3] | 49% | 39%[3] | 30+/-3% | -9%[3] |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
This year’s survey findings revealed that 36% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, which decreased significantly from last year and registered a historical low, while 21% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, the proportion of respondents regarded it as correct increased significantly to 23%, setting a historical high again, whereas 45% regarded it as wrong, representing a significant drop and registering a historical low. The findings also showed that the number of respondents who supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident decreased significantly to 40%, setting a new record low since 2002. Meanwhile, 30% did not support a reversion, registering a historical high.
Regarding the human rights condition in China, 50% of the respondents believed that China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989, which has increased significantly compared to a year ago, and 37% anticipated that China’s human rights condition will improve after 3 years. On the contrary, 23% and 26% thought it has worsened since 1989 and will get worse in 3 years’ time respectively. Both figures have decreased significantly compared to a year ago.
Moreover, 45% of the respondents thought that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China, which has decreased significantly compared to a year ago and registered a historical low, whereas 36% thought otherwise. On the other hand, the number of people who thought Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate economic development in China stands at 56%, while the number of people who thought no such responsibility now stands at 33%. Both figures have not changed much compared to a year ago.
When comparing democratic and economic development, 36% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, which registered a new record high since 2010. While 25% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy, representing a significant drop and a new record low since 2008. On the other hand, 35% believed that China should emphasize economic development more, registering a new record high since 2010, while 30% inclined toward democratic development. The proportion dropped significantly and registered a new record low since 2008.
Upcoming Press Releases / Press Conferences (Tentative)
- [Press Conference] June 17 (Friday) at 14:30
We Hongkongers: Youth matters survey
Guest commentators: Benson Wong & Chris Li - [Press Conference] June 21 (Tuesday) at 14:30
Wrap up on people’s ethnic identity
Guest commentator: Derek Yuen - [Press Conference] June 24 (Friday) at 14:30
We Hongkongers: Voluntary Health Insurance
Guest commentator: Kim-wah Chung - [Press Release] June 28 (Tuesday) at 14:30
Wrap up on HKSAR anniversary survey, popularity figures of the government, Public Sentiment Index and five core social indicators
