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香港民研發放市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜以及限聚指數 (2022-03-08)

HKPORI releases people’s most familiar political figures along with GGPI (2022-03-08)

2022年3月8日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

發佈會直播

講者:
鍾庭耀 - 香港民意研究所主席及行政總裁
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
網上評論嘉賓:
章彤輝 - 復興經濟民生大聯盟發言人

 

特別宣佈

香港民意研究所(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「香港民研」指的可以是香港民意研究所或其前身港大民研。

公報簡要

香港民研於二月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,002名香港居民。調查顯示,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、葉劉淑儀、梁振英、李家超、董建華、曾蔭權、鄧炳強、陳肇始和唐英年,然後第十一至二十名分別為李慧琼、曾鈺成、李柱銘、田北辰、麥美娟、譚耀宗、何君堯、陳方安生、曾俊華和黃之鋒。當中林鄭月娥、李家超、鄧炳強、陳肇始和麥美娟的提名比率創個人紀錄新高,而李柱銘和陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低。對比半年前,8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,李慧琼和李柱銘跌出榜外,由陳肇始和唐英年取代。總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首,然後是梁振英、董建華和曾蔭權,排名與半年前沒有分別。調查的實效回應比率為49.7%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%。

樣本資料

調查日期 21-24/2/2022
調查方法 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目[1] 1,002 (包括505個固網及497個手機樣本)
實效回應比率 49.7%
抽樣誤差[2] 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-4%
加權方法 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2020年版)。
  • 數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
  • 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

市民最熟悉政治人物方面,調查中,被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的香港在世政治人物。以下是最新調查中前二十名的結果[3]

調查日期 3-6/2/20 3-6/8/2020 24-26/2/21 20-26/8/21 21-24/2/22
樣本數目 1,001 647 500 633 587
回應比率 77.6% 64.4% 57.2% 52.9% 49.7%
最新結果 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名 比率 排名
林鄭月娥 31% 1 61% 1 61% 1 59% 1 66+/-4% 1
陳茂波 9% 14 11% 11 32% 2 18% 4 29+/-4% 2
葉劉淑儀 14% 5 17% 6 18% 4 17% 6 24+/-4% 3
梁振英 21% 4 22% 3 23% 3 24% 3 23+/-4% 4
李家超 5% 26 6% 21 2% -- 14% 7 21+/-4% 5
董建華 25% 3 18% 5 17% 5 24% 2 21+/-4% 6
曾蔭權 27% 2 13% 8 17% 6 18% 5 17+/-3% 7
鄧炳強 3% 39 8% 17 5% 21 11% 9 13+/-3% 8
陳肇始 7% 19 7% 19 9% 12 4% 22 12+/-3% 9
唐英年 8% 15 5% 31 6% 19 7% 14 11+/-3% 10
李慧琼 9% 13 12% 9 11% 10 10% 10 9+/-2% 11
曾鈺成 12% 9 9% 14 8% 15 10% 11 7+/-2% 12
李柱銘 13% 6 12% 10 14% 9 12% 8 6+/-2% 13
田北辰 6% 22 4% 37 3% 32 5% 20 6+/-2% 14
麥美娟 1% -- 2% -- 3% 37 1% -- 5+/-2% 15
譚耀宗 1% -- 10% 13 9% 13 6% 19 5+/-2% 16
何君堯 3% 34 8% 18 5% 26 4% 23 5+/-2% 17
陳方安生 12% 7 9% 15 6% 18 9% 13 5+/-2% 18
曾俊華 12% 8 5% 29 7% 17 6% 18 5+/-2% 19
黃之鋒 8% 18 19% 4 10% 11 6% 17 5+/-2% 20
  • 如四捨五入後的數字相同,則會再考慮小數點後的數字。每次調查中,排名第50位以後則視作沒有上榜。

調查結果發現,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、葉劉淑儀、梁振英、李家超、董建華、曾蔭權、鄧炳強、陳肇始和唐英年,然後第十一至二十名分別為李慧琼、曾鈺成、李柱銘、田北辰、麥美娟、譚耀宗、何君堯、陳方安生、曾俊華和黃之鋒。當中林鄭月娥、李家超、鄧炳強、陳肇始和麥美娟的提名比率創個人紀錄新高,而李柱銘和陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低。

市民最熟悉政治人物調查的作用,在於以該等人物在巿民心目中熟悉程度的起跌,顯示政治生態的改變。對比半年前,不分民望高低,8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,李慧琼和李柱銘跌出榜外,由陳肇始和唐英年取代。

須要註明,「巿民最熟悉政治人物」的排名方法是以被訪者在沒有提示下說出的政治人物計,是量度知名度的方法之一,與支持度無關。換言之,知名度排名很高的政治人物並不一定是最受歡迎的政治人物,而知名度排名偏低的政治人物,亦可能會在有提示的知名度調查中得到不同的排名。但無論如何,能夠在沒有提示的調查中脫穎而出者,肯定是巿民最熟悉的政治人物。

以下是累積過去10次大約跨越5年「巿民最熟悉政治人物」調查的部分結果:

總結排名 15-18/5/17──20-26/8/21 16-19/10/17──21-24/2/22
政治人物 10次調查平均排名[4] 政治人物 10次調查平均排名[4]
1 林鄭月娥 1.1 林鄭月娥 1.0
2 梁振英 2.9 梁振英 3.2
3 曾蔭權 3.7 董建華 4.0
4 董建華 3.8 曾蔭權 4.1
5 葉劉淑儀 6.1 葉劉淑儀 5.8
6 李柱銘 8.0 李柱銘 8.4
7 梁國雄 9.9 陳茂波 9.5
8 曾鈺成 10.5 曾鈺成 10.9
9 陳茂波 10.8 梁國雄 11.5
10 陳方安生 12.0[7] 李慧琼 12.5
11 曾俊華 12.0[7] 陳方安生 12.8
12 李慧琼 12.6 曾俊華 13.2
13 張建宗 15.5 張建宗 15.6
14 唐英年 17.9 唐英年 16.9
15 黃之鋒 18.2 黃之鋒 17.7
16 楊岳橋 18.7 楊岳橋 20.9
17 田北辰 22.0 田北辰 22.0
18 黃毓民 25.3 黃毓民 26.8
19 陳淑莊 27.3 鄭若驊 27.3
20 李卓人 27.8 李卓人 27.8
  • 每次調查中,排名第50位以後或者沒有上榜者,在計算平均排名時,皆作第50名論。

總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首,然後是梁振英、董建華和曾蔭權,排名與半年前沒有分別。總結排名第五至第十位依次為葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、陳茂波、曾鈺成、梁國雄及李慧琼。

民意日誌

香港民研於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作,由慧科訊業按照香港民研設計的分析方法,將每日大事紀錄傳送至香港民研,經香港民研核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目,上次調查日期為20-26/8/2021,而今次調查日期則為21-24/2/2022,因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸,讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計,在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件,讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字:

23/2/22 政府發表財政預算案,推出超過1,700億逆周期措施
22/2/22 政府宣佈將於三月推行全民強檢
21/2/22 政府宣佈2月24日開始實施「疫苗通行證」
18/2/22 林鄭月娥宣佈引用《緊急情況規例條款》押後特首選舉至5月8日
11/2/22 新冠肺炎疫情惡化,政務司司長李家超率團赴深圳商討抗疫
1/2/22 醫管局憂慮香港新冠肺炎疫情將海嘯式大爆發
31/1/22 民政事務局局長徐英偉宣布辭職
26/1/22 香港保護兒童會公布童樂居虐兒案首階段獨立檢討報告
21/1/22 葵涌邨逸葵樓疫情爆發,政府宣布圍封五天進行強檢
18/1/22 政府因有倉鼠感染新冠肺炎而人道毀滅2,000隻動物
14/1/22 政府延長防疫措施至2月3日及公布第五輪防疫抗疫基金詳情
12/1/22 香港第七屆立法會舉行首次會議
6/1/22 政府多名高官出席洪為民生日派對
29/12/21 7名立場新聞高層被捕,立場新聞停運
22/12/21 林鄭月娥赴京述職
20/12/21 90人當選立法會議員
14/12/21 李家超率團到深圳與廣東省官員商討通關安排
10/12/21 「香港健康碼」系統開放首日有18.7萬人註冊
8/12/21 政府公佈《長遠房屋策略》周年進度報告
19/11/21 候選人資格審查委員會公布立法會選舉候選人審查結果
31/10/21 明天起進入政府處所須強制使用「安心出行」應用程式
7/10/21 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」
6/10/21 林鄭月娥發表任內最後一份施政報告
27/9/21 政府發布香港營商環境報告
27/9/21 高級督察林婉儀於追截走私快艇期間墮海死亡
20/9/21 364人當選選舉委員會委員
26/8/21 立法會通過垃圾徵費條例草案
24/8/21 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》,禁止不利國家安全電影上映

數據分析

調查顯示,最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、葉劉淑儀、梁振英、李家超、董建華、曾蔭權、鄧炳強、陳肇始和唐英年,然後第十一至二十名分別為李慧琼、曾鈺成、李柱銘、田北辰、麥美娟、譚耀宗、何君堯、陳方安生、曾俊華和黃之鋒。當中林鄭月娥、李家超、鄧炳強、陳肇始和麥美娟的提名比率創個人紀錄新高,而李柱銘和陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低。對比半年前,8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大,李慧琼和李柱銘跌出榜外,由陳肇始和唐英年取代。總結過去10次調查的結果,林鄭月娥的平均排名繼續位列榜首,然後是梁振英、董建華和曾蔭權,排名與半年前沒有分別。

Mar 08, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Robert Chung - President and CEO, HKPORI
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Online Commentator:
Tung-Fai Cheung - Spokesman, Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood

 

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “PORI” in this release can refer to Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

PORI successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late February. Our survey shows that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Regina Ip, Leung Chun-ying, John Lee, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Henry Tang, followed by Starry Lee, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, Michael Tien, Alice Mak, Tam Yiu-chung, Junius Ho, Anson Chan, John Tsang and Joshua Wong who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, John Lee, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Alice Mak have registered personal record highs, whereas the naming percentages for Martin Lee and Anson Chan have registered historical lows. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Starry Lee and Martin Lee have fallen out of the list as replaced by Sophia Chan and Henry Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 21-24/2/2022
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,002 (including 505 landline and 497 mobile samples)
Effective response rate : 49.7%
Sampling error[2] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.
  • This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
  • All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[3]:

Date of survey 3-6/2/20 3-6/8/2020 24-26/2/21 20-26/8/21 21-24/2/22
Sample size 1,001 647 500 633 587
Response rate 77.6% 64.4% 57.2% 52.9% 49.7%
Latest findings % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank
Carrie Lam 31% 1 61% 1 61% 1 59% 1 66+/-4% 1
Paul Chan 9% 14 11% 11 32% 2 18% 4 29+/-4% 2
Regina Ip 14% 5 17% 6 18% 4 17% 6 24+/-4% 3
Leung Chun-ying 21% 4 22% 3 23% 3 24% 3 23+/-4% 4
John Lee 5% 26 6% 21 2% -- 14% 7 21+/-4% 5
Tung Chee-hwa 25% 3 18% 5 17% 5 24% 2 21+/-4% 6
Donald Tsang 27% 2 13% 8 17% 6 18% 5 17+/-3% 7
Chris Tang 3% 39 8% 17 5% 21 11% 9 13+/-3% 8
Sophia Chan 7% 19 7% 19 9% 12 4% 22 12+/-3% 9
Henry Tang 8% 15 5% 31 6% 19 7% 14 11+/-3% 10
Starry Lee 9% 13 12% 9 11% 10 10% 10 9+/-2% 11
Jasper Tsang 12% 9 9% 14 8% 15 10% 11 7+/-2% 12
Martin Lee 13% 6 12% 10 14% 9 12% 8 6+/-2% 13
Michael Tien 6% 22 4% 37 3% 32 5% 20 6+/-2% 14
Alice Mak 1% -- 2% -- 3% 37 1% -- 5+/-2% 15
Tam Yiu-chung 1% -- 10% 13 9% 13 6% 19 5+/-2% 16
Junius Ho 3% 34 8% 18 5% 26 4% 23 5+/-2% 17
Anson Chan 12% 7 9% 15 6% 18 9% 13 5+/-2% 18
John Tsang 12% 8 5% 29 7% 17 6% 18 5+/-2% 19
Joshua Wong 8% 18 19% 4 10% 11 6% 17 5+/-2% 20
  • If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.

Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Regina Ip, Leung Chun-ying, John Lee, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Henry Tang, followed by Starry Lee, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, Michael Tien, Alice Mak, Tam Yiu-chung, Junius Ho, Anson Chan, John Tsang and Joshua Wong who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, John Lee, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Alice Mak have registered personal record highs, whereas the naming percentages for Martin Lee and Anson Chan have registered historical lows.

The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Starry Lee and Martin Lee have fallen out of the list as replaced by Sophia Chan and Henry Tang.

It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.

Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:

Overall rank 15-18/5/17──20-26/8/21 16-19/10/17──21-24/2/22
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys[4]
Political figures Average rank
for 10 surveys
[4]
1 Carrie Lam 1.1 Carrie Lam 1.0
2 Leung Chun-ying 2.9 Leung Chun-ying 3.2
3 Donald Tsang 3.7 Tung Chee-hwa 4.0
4 Tung Chee-hwa 3.8 Donald Tsang 4.1
5 Regina Ip 6.1 Regina Ip 5.8
6 Martin Lee 8.0 Martin Lee 8.4
7 Leung Kwok-hung 9.9 Paul Chan 9.5
8 Jasper Tsang 10.5 Jasper Tsang 10.9
9 Paul Chan 10.8 Leung Kwok-hung 11.5
10 Anson Chan 12.0[7] Starry Lee 12.5
11 John Tsang 12.0[7] Anson Chan 12.8
12 Starry Lee 12.6 John Tsang 13.2
13 Matthew Cheung 15.5 Matthew Cheung 15.6
14 Henry Tang 17.9 Henry Tang 16.9
15 Joshua Wong 18.2 Joshua Wong 17.7
16 Alvin Yeung 18.7 Alvin Yeung 20.9
17 Michael Tien 22.0 Michael Tien 22.0
18 Raymond Wong 25.3 Raymond Wong 26.8
19 Tanya Chan 27.3 Teresa Cheng 27.3
20 Lee Cheuk-yan 27.8 Lee Cheuk-yan 27.8
  • For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.

Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago. Meanwhile, Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Paul Chan, Jasper Tsang, Leung Kwok-hung and Starry Lee occupied the 5th to 10th ranks overall.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, PORI started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to PORI a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by PORI. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by PORI.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 20 to 26 August, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 24 February, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

23/2/22 The government delivers the new Budget, and will spend more than HK$170 billion on counter-cyclical measures.
22/2/22 The government announces the implementation of compulsory mass testing in March.
21/2/22 The government announces the implementation of the Vaccine Pass arrangement starting from February 24.
18/2/22 Carrie Lam announces the postponement of the Chief Executive Election to May 8 by invoking the Emergency Regulations Ordinance.
11/2/22 As COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow, a delegation led by Chief Secretary for Administration John Lee attends the second Mainland-Hong Kong thematic meeting on COVID-19 pandemic in Shenzhen.
1/2/22 Hospital Authority worries that there will be a tsunami of outbreaks of COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.
31/1/22 Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui announces his resignation.
26/1/22 Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children releases the First Interim Independent Review Committee Report on alleged child abuse at the Children’s Residential Home.
21/1/22 The government announces five-day lockdown at Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Estate for mandatory virus testing due to the outbreak of COVID-19.
18/1/22 The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracts COVID-19.
14/1/22 The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 3 and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund.
12/1/22 The seventh Legislative Council holds its first meeting.
6/1/22 Government senior officials attend Witman Hung’s birthday party.
29/12/21 Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested.
22/12/21 Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing.
20/12/21 90 members of Legislative Council are elected.
14/12/21 John Lee leads a delegation to Shenzhen to discuss details of border reopening with officials from Guangdong.
10/12/21 187,000 people have registered on the day the “Hong Kong Health Code” system opens.
8/12/21 The government publishes the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual progress report.
19/11/21 The Candidate Eligibility Review Committee announces the review results of candidates for the Legislative Council election.
31/10/21 Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises.
7/10/21 The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”.
6/10/21 Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office.
27/9/21 The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment.
27/9/21 Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats.
20/9/21 364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
26/8/21 The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill.
24/8/21 The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Regina Ip, Leung Chun-ying, John Lee, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Henry Tang, followed by Starry Lee, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, Michael Tien, Alice Mak, Tam Yiu-chung, Junius Ho, Anson Chan, John Tsang and Joshua Wong who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, John Lee, Chris Tang, Sophia Chan and Alice Mak have registered personal record highs, whereas the naming percentages for Martin Lee and Anson Chan have registered historical lows. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Starry Lee and Martin Lee have fallen out of the list as replaced by Sophia Chan and Henry Tang. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam continued to occupy the highest rank on average, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Tung Chee-hwa and Donald Tsang. These overall rankings remained the same as those registered half a year ago.

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