2022年02月15日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾庭耀 - 香港民意研究所主席及行政總裁
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
袁彌昌 - 時事評論員
網上評論嘉賓:
章彤輝 - 民生大聯盟發言人
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於二月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,012名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為31.9分，有34%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，兩者均與一個月前分別不大。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「法治」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」，得分分別為5.13、5.09、4.97、4.94和4.25分。相比一個月前，「法治」和「自由」指標均錄得顯著升幅，而「法治」則創2019年5月以來新高。七項非核心指標中，「治安」獲得較高分，「社會福利」、「文明」、「廉潔」、「效率」、「平等」和「公平」的得分則相對較低。相比半年前，「效率」指標錄得顯著跌幅。而「社會福利」、「文明」、「效率」及「平等」指標則同創1997年有記錄以來新低，「治安」及「廉潔 」指標就創2019年5月以來新高。十項自由次指標中，「言論自由」、「罷工自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」、「出版自由」和「遊行示威自由」全部得分低於5分。相比上次調查，「出入境自由」錄得顯著跌幅，並同時創1997年有記錄以來新低。法治方面，「司法制度公平程度」創2019年5月以來新高，但仍低於5分。終審法院首席法官張舉能的最新支持度評分為46.5分。調查的實效回應比率為58.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.6。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 7-10/2/2022 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,012 (包括507個固網及505個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.1% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.6 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,017 | 1,021 | 1,012 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | 58.0% | 52.7% | 58.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 31.9+/-1.9 | -1.9 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 23% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 19% | 18+/-2% | -1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 66% | 60%[3] | 66%[3] | 63% | 67% | 70+/-3% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -42% | -36% | -45%[3] | -42% | -48% | -53+/-5% | -4% |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為31.9分，有34%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為18%，反對率為70%，民望淨值為負53個百分點，評分和民望淨值與一個月前分別不大。
社會及自由指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | 548-677 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | 58.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 法治指標 | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 5.13+/-0.24 | +0.79[4] |
| 自由指標 | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82[4] | 4.57 | 5.09+/-0.27 | +0.52[4] |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77[4] | 4.89 | 4.97+/-0.21 | +0.07 |
| 安定指標 | 5.48[4] | 5.42 | 5.03[4] | 4.89 | 4.94+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| 民主指標 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93 | 4.25+/-0.27 | +0.32 |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是七項非核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 627-663 | 616-665 | 650-656 | 633-642 | 548-554 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 治安指標 | 5.13[5] | 5.14 | 5.70[5] | 5.99 | 6.10+/-0.21 | +0.11 |
| 社會福利指標 | 5.56 | 5.63 | 5.43 | 5.54 | 5.36+/-0.21 | -0.18 |
| 文明指標 | 6.00[5] | 5.42[5] | 5.58 | 5.57 | 5.32+/-0.23 | -0.25 |
| 廉潔指標 | 4.98 | 4.98 | 5.00 | 5.04 | 5.25+/-0.25 | +0.21 |
| 效率指標 | 5.25[5] | 5.34 | 5.08 | 5.14 | 4.56+/-0.22 | -0.58[5] |
| 平等指標 | 4.87 | 4.62 | 4.50 | 4.39 | 4.31+/-0.23 | -0.08 |
| 公平指標 | 4.79[5] | 4.15[5] | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.31+/-0.23 | -0.01 |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是十項自由次指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 579-643 | 583-664 | 605-656 | 595-639 | 549-612 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 (重複顯示) | 5.58[6] | 4.84[6] | 5.02 | 5.11 | 5.09+/-0.27 | -0.02 |
| 信仰自由 | 7.24[6] | 6.71[6] | 6.76 | 6.83 | 6.94+/-0.22 | +0.11 |
| 出入境自由 | 7.02 | 6.50[6] | 6.08[6] | 6.37 | 5.66+/-0.28 | -0.71[6] |
| 學術研究自由 | 5.59[6] | 4.98[6] | 4.88 | 5.12 | 5.44+/-0.26 | +0.32 |
| 文藝創作自由 | 5.63[6] | 4.96[6] | 5.21 | 4.95 | 5.29+/-0.26 | +0.34 |
| 言論自由 | 5.24[6] | 4.39[6] | 4.63 | 4.51 | 4.57+/-0.28 | +0.07 |
| 罷工自由 | 4.67[6] | 4.08[6] | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.53+/-0.27 | +0.11 |
| 結社自由 | 4.88 | 4.35[6] | 4.17 | 4.07 | 4.35+/-0.28 | +0.28 |
| 新聞自由 | 4.94[6] | 4.27[6] | 4.38 | 4.13 | 4.34+/-0.28 | +0.21 |
| 出版自由 | 5.10[6] | 4.40[6] | 4.57 | 3.97[6] | 4.23+/-0.27 | +0.26 |
| 遊行示威自由 | 4.13[6] | 3.31[6] | 3.31 | 3.45 | 3.63+/-0.29 | +0.17 |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是兩項法治次指標及終審法院首席法官評分的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 641-658 | 584-643 | 538-657 | 568-670 | 668-678 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 法治指標 (重複顯示) | 4.45 | 4.14 | 4.50[8] | 5.06[8] | 5.13+/-0.24 | +0.07 |
| 法庭公正程度 | 4.60[8] | 4.24[8] | 4.42 | 4.98[8] | 5.03+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| 司法制度公平程度 | 4.41 | 4.07[8] | 4.27 | 4.40 | 4.67+/-0.23 | +0.28 |
| 終審法院首席法官 支持度評分[7] |
57.3 | 57.1 | 42.5[8] | 46.1 | 46.5+/-2.6 | +0.4 |
- 2021年1月前終審法院首席法官為馬道立，之後為張舉能。
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「法治」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」，得分分別為5.13、5.09、4.97、4.94和4.25分。相比一個月前，「法治」和「自由」指標均錄得顯著升幅，而「法治」則創2019年5月以來新高。
非核心指標方面，獲較高得分的為「治安」，得6.10分；「社會福利」、「文明」、「廉潔」、「效率」、「平等」和「公平」則分別得5.36、5.32、5.25、4.56、4.31和4.31分。相比半年前，「效率」指標錄得顯著跌幅，而「社會福利」、「文明」、「效率」及「平等」指標則創1997年有記錄以來新低，「治安」及「廉潔 」指標就創2019年5月以來新高。
自由次指標方面，獲最高分的首三項依次為「信仰自由」、「出入境自由」和「學術研究自由」，分別得6.94、5.66和5.44分；其次為「文藝創作自由」、「言論自由」、「罷工自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」和「出版自由」，分別得5.29、4.57、4.53、4.35、4.34和4.23分；最低分為「遊行示威自由」，只得3.63分。相比上次調查，「出入境自由」錄得顯著跌幅，並同時創1997年有記錄以來新低。
至於兩項法治次指標，法庭公正程度為5.03分，司法制度公平程度則得4.67分，並創2019年5月以來新高。而終審法院首席法官張舉能的支持度評分，以0至100分評價，則為46.5分。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為9-12/8/2021，而今次調查日期則為7-10/2/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 6/2/22 | 新冠肺炎個案連續兩日破300宗 |
| 31/1/22 | 民政事務局局長徐英偉宣布辭職 |
| 27/1/22 | 政府延長防疫措施至2月17日，疫苗通行證將於2月24日推出 |
| 26/1/22 | 香港保護兒童會公布童樂居虐兒案首階段獨立檢討報告 |
| 21/1/22 | 葵涌邨逸葵樓疫情爆發，政府宣布圍封五天進行強檢 |
| 18/1/22 | 政府因有倉鼠感染新冠肺炎而人道毀滅2,000隻動物 |
| 14/1/22 | 政府延長防疫措施至2月3日及公布第五輪防疫抗疫基金詳情 |
| 7/1/22 | 170名洪為民生日派對賓客送住隔離檢疫 |
| 29/12/21 | 7名立場新聞高層被捕，立場新聞隨即停運 |
| 20/12/21 | 90人當選立法會議員 |
| 23/11/21 | 政府宣布12月9日起擴大強制使用「安心出行」應用程式範圍 |
| 9/10/21 | 天文台屢次更改熱帶氣旋警告信號預測 |
| 8/10/21 | 政府公布《香港2030+》策略規劃最終報告 |
| 7/10/21 | 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」 |
| 24/9/21 | 中國外交部發表《美國干預香港事務、支持反中亂港勢力事實清單》 |
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 22/8/21 | 大埔交通意外釀成1死9傷 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為31.9分，有34%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，兩者均與一個月前分別不大。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「法治」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」，得分分別為5.13、5.09、4.97、4.94和4.25分。相比一個月前，「法治」和「自由」指標均錄得顯著升幅，而「法治」則創2019年5月以來新高。
七項非核心指標中，「治安」獲得較高分，「社會福利」、「文明」、「廉潔」、「效率」、「平等」和「公平」的得分則相對較低。相比半年前，「效率」指標錄得顯著跌幅。而「社會福利」、「文明」、「效率」及「平等」指標則同創1997年有記錄以來新低，「治安」及「廉潔 」指標就創2019年5月以來新高。
十項自由次指標中，「言論自由」、「罷工自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」、「出版自由」和「遊行示威自由」全部得分低於5分。相比上次調查，「出入境自由」錄得顯著跌幅，並同時創1997年有記錄以來新低。
法治方面，「司法制度公平程度」創2019年5月以來新高，但仍低於5分。終審法院首席法官張舉能的最新支持度評分為46.5分。
Feb 15, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Robert Chung - President and CEO, HKPORI
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Derek Yuen - Current Affairs Commentator
Online Commentator:
Tung-Fai Cheung - Spokesman, Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,012 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early February. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 31.9 marks, with 34% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. Both have not changed much from a month ago. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “rule of law”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.13, 5.09, 4.97, 4.94 and 4.25 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “rule of law” and “freedom” indicators have increased significantly, while the rating of “rule of law” has registered a record high since May 2019. As for the seven non-core social indicators, “public order” got relatively higher rating, while those of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “corruption-free practices”, “efficiency”, “equality” and “fairness” are relatively lower. Compared to the last survey, the rating of “efficiency” dropped significantly, while the ratings of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “efficiency” and “equality” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997, while those of “public order” and “corruption-free practice” have registered record highs since May 2019. As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “speech”, “freedom to strike”, “association”, “press”, “publication” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. Freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” has dropped significantly when compared to the last survey and registered a historical low since records began in 1997. In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, the “fairness of the judicial system” has registered a record high since May 2019, but it still scores below 5 marks. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Andrew Cheung stands at 46.5. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 7-10/2/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,012 (including 507 landline and 505 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.1% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,017 | 1,021 | 1,012 | -- |
| Response rate | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | 58.0% | 52.7% | 58.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 31.9+/-1.9 | -1.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
23% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 19% | 18+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
66% | 60%[3] | 66%[3] | 63% | 67% | 70+/-3% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -36% | -45%[3] | -42% | -48% | -53+/-5% | -4% |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 31.9 marks, with 34% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from a month ago.
Social and Freedom Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 7-10/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | 548-677 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | 58.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34 | 5.13+/-0.24 | +0.79[4] |
| Degree of freedom | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82[4] | 4.57 | 5.09+/-0.27 | +0.52[4] |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77[4] | 4.89 | 4.97+/-0.21 | +0.07 |
| Degree of stability | 5.48[4] | 5.42 | 5.03[4] | 4.89 | 4.94+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93 | 4.25+/-0.27 | +0.32 |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the seven non-core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 627-663 | 616-665 | 650-656 | 633-642 | 548-554 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of public order | 5.13[5] | 5.14 | 5.70[5] | 5.99 | 6.10+/-0.21 | +0.11 |
| Degree of social welfare sufficiency | 5.56 | 5.63 | 5.43 | 5.54 | 5.36+/-0.21 | -0.18 |
| Degree of civilization | 6.00[5] | 5.42[5] | 5.58 | 5.57 | 5.32+/-0.23 | -0.25 |
| Degree of corruption-free practices | 4.98 | 4.98 | 5.00 | 5.04 | 5.25+/-0.25 | +0.21 |
| Degree of efficiency | 5.25[5] | 5.34 | 5.08 | 5.14 | 4.56+/-0.22 | -0.58[5] |
| Degree of equality | 4.87 | 4.62 | 4.50 | 4.39 | 4.31+/-0.23 | -0.08 |
| Degree of fairness | 4.79[5] | 4.15[5] | 4.23 | 4.32 | 4.31+/-0.23 | -0.01 |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the ten freedom sub-indicators:
| Date of survey | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 579-643 | 583-664 | 605-656 | 595-639 | 549-612 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom (repeated listing) | 5.58[6] | 4.84[6] | 5.02 | 5.11 | 5.09+/-0.27 | -0.02 |
| Freedom of religious belief | 7.24[6] | 6.71[6] | 6.76 | 6.83 | 6.94+/-0.22 | +0.11 |
| Freedom to enter or leave Hong Kong | 7.02 | 6.50[6] | 6.08[6] | 6.37 | 5.66+/-0.28 | -0.71[6] |
| Freedom to engage in academic research |
5.59[6] | 4.98[6] | 4.88 | 5.12 | 5.44+/-0.26 | +0.32 |
| Freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation |
5.63[6] | 4.96[6] | 5.21 | 4.95 | 5.29+/-0.26 | +0.34 |
| Freedom of speech | 5.24[6] | 4.39[6] | 4.63 | 4.51 | 4.57+/-0.28 | +0.07 |
| Freedom to strike | 4.67[6] | 4.08[6] | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.53+/-0.27 | +0.11 |
| Freedom of association | 4.88 | 4.35[6] | 4.17 | 4.07 | 4.35+/-0.28 | +0.28 |
| Freedom of press | 4.94[6] | 4.27[6] | 4.38 | 4.13 | 4.34+/-0.28 | +0.21 |
| Freedom of publication | 5.10[6] | 4.40[6] | 4.57 | 3.97[6] | 4.23+/-0.27 | +0.26 |
| Freedom of procession and demonstration | 4.13[6] | 3.31[6] | 3.31 | 3.45 | 3.63+/-0.29 | +0.17 |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the two rule of law sub-indicators and the rating of the Chief Justice:
| Date of survey | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 2-5/2/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 7-10/2/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 641-658 | 584-643 | 538-657 | 568-670 | 668-678 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 52.4% | 62.9% | 49.4% | 58.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Compliance with the rule of law (repeated listing) | 4.45 | 4.14 | 4.50[8] | 5.06[8] | 5.13+/-0.24 | +0.07 |
| Impartiality of the courts | 4.60[8] | 4.24[8] | 4.42 | 4.98[8] | 5.03+/-0.24 | +0.05 |
| Fairness of the judicial system | 4.41 | 4.07[8] | 4.27 | 4.40 | 4.67+/-0.23 | +0.28 |
| Support rating of Chief Justice of the Court of Final Appeal[7] | 57.3 | 57.1 | 42.5[8] | 46.1 | 46.5+/-2.6 | +0.4 |
- The Chief Justice of the Court of Final Appeal before January 2021 was Geoffrey Ma, after that it was Andrew Cheung.
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “rule of law”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.13, 5.09, 4.97, 4.94 and 4.25 respectively. The ratings of “rule of law” and “freedom” have registered significant increases compared with a month ago, while the rating of “rule of law” has registered a record high since May 2019.
As for the non-core indicators, “public order” got relatively higher rating with 6.10 marks. Ratings of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “corruption-free practices”, “efficiency”, “equality” and “fairness” stand at 5.36, 5.32, 5.25, 4.56, 4.31 and 4.31 marks respectively. The rating of “efficiency” dropped significantly compared with half a year ago, while the ratings of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “efficiency” and “equality” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997, while those of “public order” and “corruption-free practice” have registered record highs since May 2019.
As for the freedom sub-indicators, the top 3 go to freedoms of “religious belief”, “entering or leaving Hong Kong” and “academic research”, with 6.94, 5.66 and 5.44 marks respectively, followed by freedom of “artistic and literary creation”, “speech”, “freedom to strike”, “association”, “press” and “publication”, with 5.29, 4.57, 4.53, 4.35, 4.34 and 4.23 marks respectively, while freedom of “procession and demonstration” ranks the last, scoring 3.63 marks only. Compared with the previous survey, freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” has dropped significantly and registered a historical low since records began in 1997.
As for the two rule of law sub-indicators, “impartiality of the courts” got 5.03 marks, while “fairness of the judicial system” got 4.67 marks which has registered a record high since May 2019. As for Chief Justice Andrew Cheung, his support rating is 46.5 on a scale of 0 to 100.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 9 to 12 August, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 February, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/2/22 | Hong Kong reports over 300 cases of COVID-19 for two consecutive days. |
| 31/1/22 | Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui announces his resignation. |
| 27/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 17 and announces the launch of “vaccine pass” on February 24. |
| 26/1/22 | Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children releases the First Interim Independent Review Committee Report on alleged child abuse at the Children’s Residential Home. |
| 21/1/22 | The government announces five-day lockdown at Yat Kwai House in Kwai Chung Estate for mandatory virus testing due to the outbreak of COVID-19. |
| 18/1/22 | The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracts COVID-19. |
| 14/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until February 3 and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 7/1/22 | All 170 guests attending the birthday party of Witman Hung receives COVID-19 testing and are sent to quarantine. |
| 29/12/21 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 20/12/21 | 90 members of Legislative Council are elected. |
| 23/11/21 | The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9. |
| 9/10/21 | The Observatory revises its forecast of tropical cyclone warning signals repeatedly. |
| 8/10/21 | The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 22/8/21 | A traffic accident at Tai Po causes 1 death and 9 injuries. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 31.9 marks, with 34% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. Both have not changed much from a month ago.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “rule of law”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.13, 5.09, 4.97, 4.94 and 4.25 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “rule of law” and “freedom” indicators have increased significantly, while the rating of “rule of law” has registered a record high since May 2019.
As for the seven non-core social indicators, “public order” got relatively higher rating, while those of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “corruption-free practices”, “efficiency”, “equality” and “fairness” are relatively lower. Compared to the last survey, the rating of “efficiency” dropped significantly, while the ratings of “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “efficiency” and “equality” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997, while those of “public order” and “corruption-free practice” have registered record highs since May 2019.
As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “speech”, “freedom to strike”, “association”, “press”, “publication” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. Freedom of “entering or leaving Hong Kong” has dropped significantly when compared to the last survey and registered a historical low since records began in 1997.
In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, the “fairness of the judicial system” has registered a record high since May 2019, but it still scores below 5 marks. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Andrew Cheung stands at 46.5.
