2021年1月25日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
李傲然 - 前油尖旺區議員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
網上評論嘉賓：
潘麒智 - 獨立評論人
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,021和1,001名香港居民。調查顯示，特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負39個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差，信任淨值則為負13個百分點，與一個月前分別不大。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負29、負37及負45個百分點。民生及經濟狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前顯著下跌，後者的跌幅更高達21個百分點。民情指數方面，最新數字為78.7，比一月上旬下跌7.2點。另外，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對香港和美國政府的好感淨值錄得負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對各地人民和政府的好感淨值均沒有顯著變化。歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對中國人民和政府的好感淨值分別創2008年和2010年以來新高，而對澳洲政府、法國人民、法國政府和日本人民的好感淨值則分別創2000年、2011年、2012年和2016年以來新低。調查的實效回應比率分別為52.7%和48.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 最認識的國家或地區調查 (提名) | 其他調查系列 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 3-6/1/2022 | 17-20/1/2022 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,021 (包括510個固網及511個手機樣本) |
1,001 (包括494個固網及507個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特區政府民望
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | 589-616 | 561-602 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[3] | 21% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 20+/-3% | -5% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[3] | 59% | 54% | 55% | 56% | 56% | 60+/-4% | +4% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -38% | -30% | -29% | -30% | -31% | -39+/-7% | -8% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[3] | 34% | 35% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 36+/-4% | -3% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[3] | 50% | 48% | 44% | 44% | 50%[4] | 49+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -16% | -13% | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13+/-7% | -1% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[3] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,017 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[5] | 24% | 28%[6] | 25% | 29% | 27% | 24+/-3% | -3% |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[5] | 58% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 53% | 53+/-3% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -34% | -25%[6] | -28% | -23% | -27% | -29+/-5% | -2% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.3 | 2.4[6] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[5] | 20% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 24% | 21+/-3% | -3% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[5] | 54% | 52% | 52% | 55% | 52% | 57+/-3% | +5%[6] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -34% | -29% | -27% | -28% | -28% | -37+/-5% | -9%[6] |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -0.1[6] |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[5] | 23% | 21% | 25%[6] | 27% | 23%[6] | 17+/-2% | -6%[6] |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[5] | 51% | 53% | 51% | 51% | 47% | 61+/-3% | +14%[6] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -28% | -32% | -26% | -24% | -24% | -45+/-5% | -21%[6] |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -0.3[6] |
[5] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特區政府方面的最新滿意率為20%，不滿率為60%，滿意率淨值為負39個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。而平均量值為2.2分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為36%，不信任比率49%，信任淨值為負13個百分點，與一個月前分別不大。而平均量值為2.6分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。
至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為24%、21%及17%，而滿意淨值就分別為負29、負37及負45個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.3至2.4，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。民生及經濟狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前顯著下跌，後者的跌幅更高達21個百分點。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：78.7 (-7.2) | 政評數值：74.0 (-2.4) | 社評數值：80.7 (-10.5) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 3/11/21 | 18/11/21 | 3/12/21 | 14/12/21 | 6/1/22 | 20/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 86.1 | 88.4 | 87.1 | 86.8 | 85.9 | 78.7 | -7.2 |
| 政評數值 | 79.8 | 81.8 | 79.5 | 78.0 | 76.4 | 74.0 | -2.4 |
| 特首評分 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 33.8[7] | -- |
| 特首民望淨值 | -42% | -36% | -45% | -42% | -48% | -48%[7] | -- |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.7[7] | 2.8 | 2.8[7] | 2.7 | 2.7[7] | 2.6 | -0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 88.1[7] | 90.2 | 90.2[7] | 91.2 | 91.2[7] | 80.7 | -10.5 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | -- |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31 | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.5[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34 | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35 | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | -- |
[7] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較一月上旬下跌7.2點至78.7，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的8個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌2.4點至74.0，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則下跌10.5點至80.7。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的4個和10個百分比。
對各地人民及政府觀感
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個除了香港、中國大陸、台灣和澳門以外最熟悉的國家或地區政府，首5位最多被訪者提及的則被納入評價調查。在評價調查中，被訪者就香港、中國大陸、台灣和澳門以及該五個國家或地區的人民及政府分別作出評價。以下是香港市民對兩岸四地人民及政府的觀感：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 17-20/1/22 | ||
| 樣本數目 | 655-672 | 821-834 | 659-670 | 552-566 | ||
| 回應比率 | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | 48.4% | ||
| 最新結果[8] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 香港 | 人民好感 | 55% | 44%[9] | 51%[9] | 51+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 6%[9] | 10%[9] | 10% | 11+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 49% | 34%[9] | 41% | 40+/-6% | -1% | |
| 政府好感 | 23%[9] | 20% | 30%[9] | 28+/-4% | -1% | |
| 政府反感 | 61%[9] | 54%[9] | 50% | 45+/-4% | -5% | |
| 淨值 | -39%[9] | -34% | -20%[9] | -16+/-7% | +4% | |
| 中國大陸 | 人民好感 | 32% | 36% | 40% | 46+/-4% | +6%[9] |
| 人民反感 | 32% | 22%[9] | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | <1% | 14%[9] | 20% | 26+/-6% | +6% | |
| 政府好感 | 27% | 33%[9] | 37% | 39+/-4% | +2% | |
| 政府反感 | 52%[9] | 41%[9] | 39% | 33+/-4% | -6%[9] | |
| 淨值 | -26%[9] | -9%[9] | -2% | 6+/-7% | +8% | |
| 台灣 | 人民好感 | 68%[9] | 55%[9] | 54% | 56+/-4% | +2% |
| 人民反感 | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6+/-2% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 64% | 50%[9] | 48% | 50+/-5% | +2% | |
| 政府好感 | 51% | 42%[9] | 35%[9] | 34+/-4% | -1% | |
| 政府反感 | 21% | 23% | 27%[9] | 27+/-4% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 31% | 20%[9] | 8%[9] | 7+/-7% | -- | |
| 澳門 | 人民好感 | 50% | 50% | 53% | 51+/-4% | -1% |
| 人民反感 | 5%[9] | 2%[9] | 4%[9] | 3+/-2% | -1% | |
| 淨值 | 45% | 48% | 48% | 48+/-5% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 45%[9] | 53%[9] | 46%[9] | 49+/-4% | +3% | |
| 政府反感 | 20%[9] | 8%[9] | 15%[9] | 13+/-3% | -2% | |
| 淨值 | 25%[9] | 46%[9] | 31%[9] | 36+/-6% | +5% | |
[8] 數字採自五等量尺。
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是香港市民對部分其他國家或地區的人民及政府的觀感，按對人民好感淨值由高至低排列：
| 調查日期 | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 17-20/1/22 | ||
| 樣本數目 | 667-700 | 820-826 | 665-671 | 554-556 | ||
| 回應比率 | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | 48.4% | ||
| 最新結果[10] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 最新變化 | |
| 日本 | 人民好感 | 59%[11] | 52%[11] | 55% | 56+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 6% | 5% | 7%[11] | 9+/-2% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 53%[11] | 48% | 48% | 47+/-6% | -1% | |
| 政府好感 | 35%[11] | 30%[11] | 33% | 29+/-4% | -4% | |
| 政府反感 | 17% | 15% | 24%[11] | 27+/-4% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 18%[11] | 16% | 8%[11] | 1+/-6% | -7% | |
| 澳洲 | 人民好感 | 43%[11] | 34%[11] | 40%[11] | 41+/-4% | +1% |
| 人民反感 | 6% | 4% | 6% | 8+/-2% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 37%[11] | 30%[11] | 34% | 34+/-5% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 38% | 30%[11] | 34% | 32+/-4% | -2% | |
| 政府反感 | 15% | 16% | 18% | 19+/-3% | +1% | |
| 淨值 | 22% | 15%[11] | 16% | 13+/-6% | -3% | |
| 英國 | 人民好感 | 42%[11] | 29%[11] | 41%[11] | 39+/-4% | -2% |
| 人民反感 | 10%[11] | 11% | 12% | 10+/-3% | -3% | |
| 淨值 | 32%[11] | 19%[11] | 29%[11] | 29+/-5% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 37% | 24%[11] | 37%[11] | 33+/-4% | -4% | |
| 政府反感 | 25% | 28% | 25% | 28+/-4% | +3% | |
| 淨值 | 12% | -3%[11] | 12%[11] | 5+/-7% | -7% | |
| 法國 | 人民好感 | 33%[11] | -- | -- | 28+/-4% | -- |
| 人民反感 | 5% | -- | -- | 9+/-2% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 28%[11] | -- | -- | 19+/-5% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 22%[11] | -- | -- | 21+/-3% | -- | |
| 政府反感 | 11% | -- | -- | 14+/-3% | -- | |
| 淨值 | 11%[11] | -- | -- | 7+/-5% | -- | |
| 美國 | 人民好感 | 38%[11] | 21%[11] | 30%[11] | 32+/-4% | +2% |
| 人民反感 | 14% | 20%[11] | 19% | 21+/-3% | +2% | |
| 淨值 | 24%[11] | 2%[11] | 10%[11] | 11+/-6% | -- | |
| 政府好感 | 28% | 14%[11] | 21%[11] | 20+/-3% | -1% | |
| 政府反感 | 41%[11] | 44% | 41% | 43+/-4% | +2% | |
| 淨值 | -13%[11] | -30%[11] | -20%[11] | -23+/-6% | -4% | |
[10] 數字採自五等量尺。
[11] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值。對各地人民觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是台灣、澳門、日本、香港、澳洲、英國、中國、法國和美國。對各地政府觀感方面，按好感淨值由高至低排列，分別是澳門、澳洲、台灣、法國、中國、英國、日本、香港和美國，當中對香港和美國政府的好感淨值為負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對各地人民和政府的好感淨值均沒有顯著變化。
歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對中國人民和政府的好感淨值分別創2008年和2010年以來新高，而對澳洲政府、法國人民、法國政府和日本人民的好感淨值則分別創2000年、2011年、2012年和2016年以來新低。
須要說明，躋身是次調查範圍的國家和地區，先決條件是香港巿民的熟悉程度。調查範圍以外的國家或地區，在香港巿民心目中的好感程度可以很高或很低，但由於並非香港巿民最熟悉的國家或地區，所以不在調查之列。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為19-22/7/2021，而今次調查日期則為17-20/1/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 18/1/22 | 政府因有倉鼠感染新冠肺炎而人道毀滅2,000隻動物 |
| 17/1/22 | 國家統計局公布中國2021年GDP按年增長8.1% |
| 14/1/22 | 政府延長防疫措施至2月3日及公布第五輪防疫抗疫基金詳情 |
| 10/1/22 | 政府宣佈緊密接觸者檢疫期縮短至14日 |
| 6/1/22 | 政府多名高官出席洪為民生日派對 |
| 29/12/21 | 7名立場新聞高層被捕，立場新聞隨即停運 |
| 20/12/21 | 90人當選立法會議員 |
| 14/12/21 | 李家超率團到深圳與廣東省官員商討通關安排 |
| 3/12/21 | 東京奧運中國代表團到訪香港 |
| 29/11/21 | 政府因應Omicron疫情禁止多個國家非港人入境 |
| 25/11/21 | 政府指中港通關進展良好，「香港健康碼」將於十二月推出 |
| 16/11/21 | 習近平及拜登舉行視像會議 |
| 3/11/21 | 政府公布第三劑新冠疫苗接種安排 |
| 30/10/21 | 進入政府處所即將強制使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 26/10/21 | 政府將取消大部分豁免檢疫群組以促成中港通關 |
| 7/10/21 | 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」 |
| 25/9/21 | 孟晚舟獲釋返回中國 |
| 24/9/21 | 中國外交部發表《美國干預香港事務、支持反中亂港勢力事實清單》 |
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 31/8/21 | 政府提出修例，放寬引入非本地培訓醫生條件 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
| 16/8/21 | 塔利班重奪阿富汗政權 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 1/8/21 | 政府派發首期2,000元電子消費券 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 30/7/21 | 唐英傑就煽動分裂國家罪及恐怖活動罪被判囚9年 |
| 23/7/21 | 東京奧運開幕 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負39個百分點，較一個月前下跌8個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差，信任淨值則為負13個百分點，與一個月前分別不大。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負29、負37及負45個百分點。民生及經濟狀況的滿意淨值相比一個月前顯著下跌，後者的跌幅更高達21個百分點。
民情指數方面，最新數字為78.7，比一月上旬下跌7.2點。
另外，香港巿民對各地人民的好感淨值，全部都高於對當地政府的好感淨值，當中對香港和美國政府的好感淨值錄得負數。相比半年前，香港巿民對各地人民和政府的好感淨值均沒有顯著變化。歷史紀錄方面，香港巿民對中國人民和政府的好感淨值分別創2008年和2010年以來新高，而對澳洲政府、法國人民、法國政府和日本人民的好感淨值則分別創2000年、2011年、2012年和2016年以來新低。
Jan 25, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li - Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Online Commentator:
KC Poon - Independent Commentator
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,021 and 1,001 Hong Kong residents in a two-stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 39 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago, yet within sampling error, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points, which has not changed much from a month ago. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 29, negative 37 and negative 45 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of livelihood and economic conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago, where the drop registered for the latter was as much as 21 percentage points. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 78.7, down by 7.2 points from early January. Meanwhile, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong and the United States registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards different peoples and governments have not changed significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2008 and 2010 respectively, while that towards the government of Australia, the people of France, the government of France and the people of Japan are at historical lows since 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2016 respectively. The effective response rates of the surveys are 52.7% and 48.4% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Survey on most familiar countries or regions (nomination) | Other survey series | ||
| Date of survey | : | 3-6/1/2022 | 17-20/1/2022 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,021 (including 510 landline and 511 mobile samples) | 1,001 (including 494 landline and 507 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | 589-616 | 561-602 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] | 21% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 20+/-3% | -5% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[3] | 59% | 54% | 55% | 56% | 56% | 60+/-4% | +4% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -38% | -30% | -29% | -30% | -31% | -39+/-7% | -8% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[3] | 34% | 35% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 36+/-4% | -3% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] | 50% | 48% | 44% | 44% | 50%[4] | 49+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -16% | -13% | -6% | -2% | -11% | -13+/-7% | -1% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 17-20/1/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,017 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | 58.0% | 48.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
24% | 28%[6] | 25% | 29% | 27% | 24+/-3% | -3% |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
58% | 54% | 53% | 52% | 53% | 53+/-3% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -34% | -25%[6] | -28% | -23% | -27% | -29+/-5% | -2% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.3 | 2.4[6] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
20% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 24% | 21+/-3% | -3% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
54% | 52% | 52% | 55% | 52% | 57+/-3% | +5%[6] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -34% | -29% | -27% | -28% | -28% | -37+/-5% | -9%[6] |
| Mean value[5] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -0.1[6] |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[5] |
23% | 21% | 25%[6] | 27% | 23%[6] | 17+/-2% | -6%[6] |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[5] |
51% | 53% | 51% | 51% | 47% | 61+/-3% | +14%[6] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -28% | -32% | -26% | -24% | -24% | -45+/-5% | -21%[6] |
| Mean value[5] | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -0.3[6] |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the latest satisfaction rate of the HKSAR Government is 20%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 60%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 39 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago, yet within sampling error. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 36% of the respondents expressed trust, 49% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 13 percentage points, which has not changed much from a month ago. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 24%, 21% and 17% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 29, negative 37 and negative 45 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall between 2.3 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. The net satisfaction rates of livelihood and economic conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago, where the drop registered for the latter was as much as 21 percentage points.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|||
| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 78.7 (-7.2) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 74.0 (-2.4) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 80.7 (-10.5) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 3/11/21 | 18/11/21 | 3/12/21 | 14/12/21 | 6/1/22 | 20/1/22 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 86.1 | 88.4 | 87.1 | 86.8 | 85.9 | 78.7 | -7.2 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 79.8 | 81.8 | 79.5 | 78.0 | 76.4 | 74.0 | -2.4 |
| Rating of CE | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8 | 33.8[7] | -- |
| Net approval rate of CE | -42% | -36% | -45% | -42% | -48% | -48%[7] | -- |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.7[7] | 2.8 | 2.8[7] | 2.7 | 2.7[7] | 2.6 | -0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 88.1[7] | 90.2 | 90.2[7] | 91.2 | 91.2[7] | 80.7 | -10.5 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | -- |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | 0.31 | 0.31[7] | 0.31[7] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.5[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.6 | 2.6[7] | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | 0.34 | 0.34[7] | 0.34[7] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.4[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.5 | 2.5[7] | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | 0.35 | 0.35[7] | 0.35[7] | -- |
[7] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 78.7, down by 7.2 points from early January. It can be considered as among the worst 8% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 2.4 points to 74.0, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 10.5 points to 80.7. They can be considered as among the worst 4% and 10% across the past 20 years or so respectively.
Feelings towards Different Peoples and Governments
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 governments of countries or regions that they knew best apart from Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau. The top 5 nominees then entered the evaluation survey. In the evaluation survey, respondents were asked to rate their feeling towards the governments and peoples of Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau and the five countries or regions respectively. Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 17-20/1/22 | ||
| Sample size | 655-672 | 821-834 | 659-670 | 552-566 | ||
| Response rate | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | 48.4% | ||
| Latest findings[8] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Hong Kong | People Positive | 55% | 44%[9] | 51%[9] | 51+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 6%[9] | 10%[9] | 10% | 11+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | 49% | 34%[9] | 41% | 40+/-6% | -1% | |
| Government Positive | 23%[9] | 20% | 30%[9] | 28+/-4% | -1% | |
| Government Negative | 61%[9] | 54%[9] | 50% | 45+/-4% | -5% | |
| Net value | -39%[9] | -34% | -20%[9] | -16+/-7% | +4% | |
| Mainland China | People Positive | 32% | 36% | 40% | 46+/-4% | +6%[9] |
| People Negative | 32% | 22%[9] | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | <1% | 14%[9] | 20% | 26+/-6% | +6% | |
| Government Positive | 27% | 33%[9] | 37% | 39+/-4% | +2% | |
| Government Negative | 52%[9] | 41%[9] | 39% | 33+/-4% | -6%[9] | |
| Net value | -26%[9] | -9%[9] | -2% | 6+/-7% | +8% | |
| Taiwan | People Positive | 68%[9] | 55%[9] | 54% | 56+/-4% | +2% |
| People Negative | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6+/-2% | -- | |
| Net value | 64% | 50%[9] | 48% | 50+/-5% | +2% | |
| Government Positive | 51% | 42%[9] | 35%[9] | 34+/-4% | -1% | |
| Government Negative | 21% | 23% | 27%[9] | 27+/-4% | -- | |
| Net value | 31% | 20%[9] | 8%[9] | 7+/-7% | -- | |
| Macau | People Positive | 50% | 50% | 53% | 51+/-4% | -1% |
| People Negative | 5%[9] | 2%[9] | 4%[9] | 3+/-2% | -1% | |
| Net value | 45% | 48% | 48% | 48+/-5% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 45%[9] | 53%[9] | 46%[9] | 49+/-4% | +3% | |
| Government Negative | 20%[9] | 8%[9] | 15%[9] | 13+/-3% | -2% | |
| Net value | 25%[9] | 46%[9] | 31%[9] | 36+/-6% | +5% | |
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Hong Kong people’s feelings towards some other governments and peoples are summarized as follows, in descending order of net values towards the peoples:
| Date of survey | 17-20/8/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 17-20/1/22 | ||
| Sample size | 667-700 | 820-826 | 665-671 | 554-556 | ||
| Response rate | 60.9% | 67.2% | 48.5% | 48.4% | ||
| Latest findings[10] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Japan | People Positive | 59%[11] | 52%[11] | 55% | 56+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 6% | 5% | 7%[11] | 9+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 53%[11] | 48% | 48% | 47+/-6% | -1% | |
| Government Positive | 35%[11] | 30%[11] | 33% | 29+/-4% | -4% | |
| Government Negative | 17% | 15% | 24%[11] | 27+/-4% | +3% | |
| Net value | 18%[11] | 16% | 8%[11] | 1+/-6% | -7% | |
| Australia | People Positive | 43%[11] | 34%[11] | 40%[11] | 41+/-4% | +1% |
| People Negative | 6% | 4% | 6% | 8+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 37%[11] | 30%[11] | 34% | 34+/-5% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 38% | 30%[11] | 34% | 32+/-4% | -2% | |
| Government Negative | 15% | 16% | 18% | 19+/-3% | +1% | |
| Net value | 22% | 15%[11] | 16% | 13+/-6% | -3% | |
| United Kingdom | People Positive | 42%[11] | 29%[11] | 41%[11] | 39+/-4% | -2% |
| People Negative | 10%[11] | 11% | 12% | 10+/-3% | -3% | |
| Net value | 32%[11] | 19%[11] | 29%[11] | 29+/-5% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 37% | 24%[11] | 37%[11] | 33+/-4% | -4% | |
| Government Negative | 25% | 28% | 25% | 28+/-4% | +3% | |
| Net value | 12% | -3%[11] | 12%[11] | 5+/-7% | -7% | |
| France | People Positive | 33%[11] | -- | -- | 28+/-4% | -- |
| People Negative | 5% | -- | -- | 9+/-2% | -- | |
| Net value | 28%[11] | -- | -- | 19+/-5% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 22%[11] | -- | -- | 21+/-3% | -- | |
| Government Negative | 11% | -- | -- | 14+/-3% | -- | |
| Net value | 11%[11] | -- | -- | 7+/-5% | -- | |
| United States | People Positive | 38%[11] | 21%[11] | 30%[11] | 32+/-4% | +2% |
| People Negative | 14% | 20%[11] | 19% | 21+/-3% | +2% | |
| Net value | 24%[11] | 2%[11] | 10%[11] | 11+/-6% | -- | |
| Government Positive | 28% | 14%[11] | 21%[11] | 20+/-3% | -1% | |
| Government Negative | 41%[11] | 44% | 41% | 43+/-4% | +2% | |
| Net value | -13%[11] | -30%[11] | -20%[11] | -23+/-6% | -4% | |
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[11] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. As regards people’s feeling towards different peoples, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Macau, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, Mainland China, France and the United States. Regarding people’s feeling towards different governments, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Macau, Australia, Taiwan, France, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong and the United States are negative. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards different peoples and governments have not changed significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2008 and 2010 respectively, while that towards the government of Australia, the people of France, the government of France and the people of Japan are at historical lows since 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2016 respectively.
It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 January, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 18/1/22 | The government culls 2,000 animals after a hamster contracted COVID-19. |
| 17/1/22 | National Bureau of Statistics announces that China’s GDP grows 8.1% in 2021. |
| 14/1/22 | The government extends anti-epidemic measures until 3 February and announces details for the fifth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 10/1/22 | The government announces the shortening of quarantine duration for close contacts to 14 days. |
| 6/1/22 | Government senior officials attend Witman Hung’s birthday party. |
| 29/12/21 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 20/12/21 | 90 members of the Legislative Council are elected. |
| 14/12/21 | John Lee leads a delegation to Shenzhen to discuss details of border reopening with officials from Guangdong. |
| 3/12/21 | The Tokyo Olympics Chinese delegation arrives in Hong Kong. |
| 29/11/21 | The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant. |
| 25/11/21 | The government says the progress of border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong is promising, and that “Hong Kong Health Code” will be launched in December. |
| 16/11/21 | Xi Jinping and Biden meet virtually. |
| 3/11/21 | The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination. |
| 30/10/21 | It will soon be mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 26/10/21 | The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 25/9/21 | Meng Wanzhou is freed and returns to China. |
| 24/9/21 | China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 31/8/21 | The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
| 16/8/21 | The Taliban takes control of Afghanistan again. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 23/7/21 | The opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics is held. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 39 percentage points, which has dropped by 8 percentage points from a month ago, yet within sampling error, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points, which has not changed much from a month ago. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 29, negative 37 and negative 45 percentage points respectively. The net satisfaction rates of livelihood and economic conditions have dropped significantly compared to a month ago, where the drop registered for the latter was as much as 21 percentage points.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 78.7, down by 7.2 points from early January.
Meanwhile, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of Hong Kong and the United States registered negative values. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards different peoples and governments have not changed significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people and government of Mainland China are at historical highs since 2008 and 2010 respectively, while that towards the government of Australia, the people of France, the government of France and the people of Japan are at historical lows since 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2016 respectively.
