2022年1月11日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
任偉豪 - 復興經濟民生大聯盟成員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字
以及五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,021名香港居民。調查顯示，調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為33.8分，有35%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負48個百分點，兩者均與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長李家超的支持度評分為36.9分，民望淨值為負10個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為42.3分，民望淨值為正3個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分顯著回落至24.9分，民望淨值為負38個百分點。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「繁榮」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.89、4.89、4.57、4.34和3.93分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。調查的實效回應比率為52.7%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.8。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 3-6/1/2022 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,021 (包括510個固網及511個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 52.7% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.8 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及司長民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,017 | 1,021 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | 58.0% | 52.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8+/-2.0 | -2.0 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 22% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 19+/-2% | -2% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 64%[3] | 66% | 60%[3] | 66%[3] | 63% | 67+/-3% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -42% | -42% | -36% | -45%[3] | -42% | -48+/-5% | -6% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | 589-668 | 529-589 | 582-628 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 50.1% | 52.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長李家超評分 | -- | 38.0 | 35.3 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 36.9+/-2.8 | +0.4 |
| 李家超出任政務司司長支持率 | -- | 32% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 28+/-4% | -1% |
| 李家超出任政務司司長反對率 | -- | 37% | 40% | 38% | 35% | 38+/-4% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -5% | -11% | -11% | -6% | -10+/-7% | -4% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3 | 41.9 | 44.2 | 42.3+/-2.5 | -1.9 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 25% | 32%[4] | 33% | 31% | 31% | 34+/-4% | +2% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 43% | 32%[4] | 29% | 35%[4] | 29%[4] | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -18% | 1%[4] | 4% | -5% | 2% | 3+/-7% | +1% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7 | 28.3 | 28.8 | 24.9+/-2.4 | -3.9[4] |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 61% | 53%[4] | 53% | 50% | 53% | 52+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -47% | -37%[4] | -39% | -35% | -39% | -38+/-6% | +1% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為33.8分，有35%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為19%，反對率為67%，民望淨值為負48個百分點，評分和民望淨值與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超的支持度評分為36.9分，支持率為28%，反對率為38%，民望淨值為負10個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為42.3分，支持率為34%，反對率為31%，民望淨值為正3個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分顯著回落至24.9分，支持率為14%，反對率為52%，民望淨值為負38個百分點。除鄭若驊的支持度評分外，以上各項評分和民望淨值相比兩個月前沒有顯著變化。
核心社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 593-605 | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 44.2% | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 安定指標 | 5.07 | 5.48[5] | 5.42 | 5.03[5] | 4.89+/-0.24 | -0.14 |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.02[5] | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77[5] | 4.89+/-0.21 | +0.12 |
| 自由指標 | 4.95 | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82[5] | 4.57+/-0.27 | -0.24 |
| 法治指標 | 4.64[5] | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34+/-0.25 | -0.24 |
| 民主指標 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93+/-0.26 | -- |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「繁榮」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.89、4.89、4.57、4.34和3.93分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為29/10-3/11/2021，而今次調查日期則為3-6/1/2022，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 5/1/22 | 政府宣布進一步收緊防疫措施 |
| 4/1/22 | 香港出現首宗源頭不明Omicron本地初步確診個案 |
| 31/12/21 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施 |
| 29/12/21 | 7名立場新聞高層被捕，立場新聞隨即停運 |
| 28/12/21 | 政府收緊機組人員檢疫要求 |
| 22/12/21 | 林鄭月娥赴京述職 |
| 20/12/21 | 90人當選立法會議員 |
| 14/12/21 | 李家超率團到深圳與廣東省官員商討通關安排 |
| 8/12/21 | 政府公佈《長遠房屋策略》周年進度報告 |
| 2/12/21 | 政府將於12月10日推出「香港健康碼」 |
| 29/11/21 | 政府因應Omicron疫情禁止多個國家非港人入境 |
| 25/11/21 | 政府指中港通關進展良好，「香港健康碼」將於十二月推出 |
| 23/11/21 | 政府宣布12月9日起擴大強制使用「安心出行」應用程式範圍 |
| 19/11/21 | 候選人資格審查委員會公布立法會選舉候選人審查結果 |
| 12/11/21 | 立法會選舉提名期結束，154人報名競逐90個席位 |
| 5/11/21 | 林鄭月娥表示希望明年二月中港兩地有規模通關 |
| 4/11/21 | 政府正推動中港兩地恢復通關 |
| 3/11/21 | 政府公布第三劑新冠疫苗接種安排 |
| 31/10/21 | 明天起進入政府處所須強制使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 29/10/21 | 立法會選舉提名期即將開始 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為33.8分，有35%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負48個百分點，兩者均與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超的支持度評分為36.9分，民望淨值為負10個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為42.3分，民望淨值為正3個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分顯著回落至24.9分，民望淨值為負38個百分點。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「繁榮」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.89、4.89、4.57、4.34和3.93分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。
Jan 11, 2022
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Yam Wai Ho - Member of Alliance of Revitalizing Economy and Livelihood observed
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,021 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.8 marks, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 48 percentage points. Both have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 10 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.3 marks. His net popularity is positive 3 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating drops significantly to 24.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 38 percentage points. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.89, 4.89, 4.57, 4.34 and 3.93 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 3-6/1/2022 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,021 (including 510 landline and 511 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 52.7% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 9-14/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,017 | 1,021 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | 58.0% | 52.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6 | 35.8 | 33.8+/-2.0 | -2.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
22% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 21% | 19+/-2% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
64%[3] | 66% | 60%[3] | 66%[3] | 63% | 67+/-3% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -42% | -36% | -45%[3] | -42% | -48+/-5% | -6% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 3-6/1/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | 589-668 | 529-589 | 582-628 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 50.1% | 52.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS John Lee | -- | 38.0 | 35.3 | 37.5 | 36.5 | 36.9+/-2.8 | +0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | -- | 32% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 28+/-4% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | -- | 37% | 40% | 38% | 35% | 38+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -5% | -11% | -11% | -6% | -10+/-7% | -4% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3 | 41.9 | 44.2 | 42.3+/-2.5 | -1.9 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 25% | 32%[4] | 33% | 31% | 31% | 34+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 43% | 32%[4] | 29% | 35%[4] | 29%[4] | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -18% | 1%[4] | 4% | -5% | 2% | 3+/-7% | +1% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7 | 28.3 | 28.8 | 24.9+/-2.4 | -3.9[4] |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 61% | 53%[4] | 53% | 50% | 53% | 52+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -47% | -37%[4] | -39% | -35% | -39% | -38+/-6% | +1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.8 marks, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.9 marks. His approval rate is 28%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.3 marks. His approval rate stands at 34%, disapproval rate 31%, thus a net popularity of positive 3 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating drops significantly to 24.9 marks. Her approval rate stands at 14%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 38 percentage points. Apart from the support rating of Teresa Cheng, no significant changes have been registered for all the above ratings and net approval rates compared to two months ago.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 3-6/1/22 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 593-605 | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | 606-618 | -- |
| Response rate | 44.2% | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | 52.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of stability | 5.07 | 5.48[5] | 5.42 | 5.03[5] | 4.89+/-0.24 | -0.14 |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.02[5] | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77[5] | 4.89+/-0.21 | +0.12 |
| Degree of freedom | 4.95 | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82[5] | 4.57+/-0.27 | -0.24 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.64[5] | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59 | 4.34+/-0.25 | -0.24 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94 | 3.93+/-0.26 | -- |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.89, 4.89, 4.57, 4.34 and 3.93 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 29 October to 3 November, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 January, 2022. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 5/1/22 | The government announces the further tightening of anti-epidemic measures. |
| 4/1/22 | Hong Kong reports the first suspected local Omicron case with unknown origin. |
| 31/12/21 | The government announces the tightening of anti-epidemic measures. |
| 29/12/21 | Stand News closes after seven senior staff members are arrested. |
| 28/12/21 | The government tightens quarantine requirements for air crew. |
| 22/12/21 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 20/12/21 | 90 members of the Legislative Council are elected. |
| 14/12/21 | John Lee leads a delegation to Shenzhen to discuss details of border reopening with officials from Guangdong. |
| 8/12/21 | The government publishes the “Long Term Housing Strategy” annual progress report. |
| 2/12/21 | The government will launch “Hong Kong Health Code” on December 10. |
| 29/11/21 | The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant. |
| 25/11/21 | The government says the progress of border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong is promising, and that “Hong Kong Health Code” will be launched in December. |
| 23/11/21 | The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9. |
| 19/11/21 | The Candidate Eligibility Review Committee announces the review results of candidates for the Legislative Council election. |
| 12/11/21 | Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats. |
| 5/11/21 | Carrie Lam hopes that border between mainland China and Hong Kong can be largely reopened in February next year. |
| 4/11/21 | The government is pushing for border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong. |
| 3/11/21 | The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination. |
| 31/10/21 | Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 29/10/21 | Nomination period for Legislative Council election will start soon. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.8 marks, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 48 percentage points. Both have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 10 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.3 marks. His net popularity is positive 3 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating drops significantly to 24.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 38 percentage points.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.89, 4.89, 4.57, 4.34 and 3.93 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago.
