2021年12月07日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
陳家洛 - 選舉觀察計劃成員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
網上評論嘉賓:
潘麒智 - 獨立評論人
民研計劃發放特首及局長民望數字
以及五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十一月底至十二月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.6分，與半個月前分別不大，有35%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負45個百分點，比半個月前顯著下跌9個百分點。局長方面，十三位局長之中有三位的民望淨值錄得正數，分別是聶德權、黃錦星和鄧炳強。對比約三個月前，全部局長的民望淨值均告下跌，當中羅致光、陳帆、黃錦星、許正宇、邱騰華和黃偉綸的民望淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為5.03、4.82、4.77、4.59和3.94分，當中「安定」、「自由」和「繁榮」指標相比一個月前錄得顯著跌幅。調查的實效回應比率為44.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.0。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 29/11-3/12/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括500個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 44.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.0 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及局長民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6+/-2.0 | -2.8 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22% | 23% | 24% | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 66% | 59%[4] | 64%[4] | 66% | 60%[4] | 66+/-3% | +6%[4] |
| 支持率淨值 | -46% | -35%[4] | -42% | -42% | -36% | -45+/-5% | -9%[4] |
[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在6/10/2021進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分5分，特首支持率淨值負48個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字較適宜與上次於16-23/9/2021進行的定期調查比較。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值排列[5]：
| 調查日期 | 3-7/5/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 614-647 | 606-626 | 604-631 | 601-636 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.5% | 46.4% | 44.2% | 44.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 24% | 32%[6] | 30% | 31+/-4% | +1% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 39% | 32%[6] | 27% | 29+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -15% | 1%[6] | 3% | 2+/-6% | -1% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 29%[6] | 29% | 33% | 27+/-4% | -6%[6] |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 27% | 22%[6] | 18% | 26+/-4% | +7%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | 2% | 7% | 14% | 1+/-6% | -13%[6] |
| 鄧炳強出任保安局局長支持率 | -- | 43% | 43% | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| 鄧炳強出任保安局局長反對率 | -- | 41% | 40% | 39+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | 2% | 2% | 1+/-7% | -1% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 21% | 26%[6] | 27% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 25% | 20%[6] | 20% | 23+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -5% | 6%[6] | 7% | -<1+/-6% | -7% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 26% | 33%[6] | 33% | 27+/-4% | -5%[6] |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 35% | 30% | 27% | 31+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | 3%[6] | 6% | -3+/-6% | -9%[6] |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 18% | 24%[6] | 22% | 19+/-3% | -4% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 25% | 16%[6] | 17% | 23+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -7% | 8%[6] | 5% | -4+/-5% | -9%[6] |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 18% | 22%[6] | 22% | 17+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 24%[6] | 18%[6] | 16% | 22+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -6% | 5%[6] | 7% | -5+/-5% | -12%[6] |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 19% | 28%[6] | 25% | 27+/-4% | +2% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 41% | 30%[6] | 27% | 34+/-4% | +6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -22% | -2%[6] | -2% | -7+/-6% | -5% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 22% | 26% | 18+/-3% | -8%[6] |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 30% | 26% | 26% | 26+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | -4% | <1% | -8+/-5% | -8% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 24%[6] | 26% | 29% | 22+/-3% | -7%[6] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 35% | 29%[6] | 23%[6] | 31+/-4% | +8%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -11%[6] | -4% | 5%[6] | -9+/-6% | -15%[6] |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 26% | 32%[6] | 32% | 25+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 37% | 30%[6] | 24%[6] | 37+/-4% | +12%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -12% | 3%[6] | 8% | -12+/-6% | -20%[6] |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 24% | 28% | 25% | 24+/-4% | -1% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 45% | 36%[6] | 38% | 40+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -8%[6] | -13% | -16+/-6% | -2% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 14% | 22%[6] | 21% | 17+/-3% | -5%[6] |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 58% | 51%[6] | 48% | 48+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -44% | -29%[6] | -27% | -31+/-6% | -4% |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.6分，與半個月前分別不大，有35%受訪者給予她0分。其最新支持率為21%，反對率為66%，民望淨值為負45個百分點，比半個月前顯著下跌9個百分點。
局長方面，十三位局長之中有三位的民望淨值錄得正數，排名由高至低分別是公務員事務局局長聶德權、環境局局長黃錦星和保安局局長鄧炳強。而排名第四至第十三，民望淨值錄得負值的則有創新及科技局局長薛永恒、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、發展局局長黃偉綸、財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、民政事務局局長徐英偉、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始和教育局局長楊潤雄。對比約三個月前，全部局長的民望淨值均告下跌，當中羅致光、陳帆、黃錦星、許正宇、邱騰華和黃偉綸的民望淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，鄧炳強、聶德權、邱騰華、黃錦星、曾國衞、羅致光、陳肇始、陳帆及楊潤雄屬於「表現一般」，薛永恒、黃偉綸、徐英偉及許正宇屬於「表現不彰」，林鄭月娥屬於「表現失敗」，沒有官員屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各局長民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 保安局局長鄧炳強（40%）
公務員事務局局長聶德權（31%） 商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（27%） 環境局局長黃錦星（27%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（27%） 勞工及福利局局長羅致光（25%） 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（24%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（22%） 教育局局長楊潤雄（17%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[7]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（23%，46%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（19%，41%） 民政事務局局長徐英偉（18%，44%） 財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（17%，38%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（66%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
[7] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
核心社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 635-666 | 593-605 | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 49.4% | 44.2% | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 安定指標 | 4.99 | 5.07 | 5.48[8] | 5.42 | 5.03+/-0.23 | -0.39[8] |
| 自由指標 | 5.11[8] | 4.95 | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82+/-0.26 | -0.36[8] |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.52[8] | 5.02[8] | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77+/-0.20 | -0.58[8] |
| 法治指標 | 5.06[8] | 4.64[8] | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59+/-0.25 | -0.28 |
| 民主指標 | 4.02 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94+/-0.26 | -0.23 |
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為5.03、4.82、4.77、4.59和3.94分，當中「安定」、「自由」和「繁榮」指標相比一個月前錄得顯著跌幅。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為6-10/9/2021，而今次調查日期則為29/11-3/12/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 2/12/21 | 政府將於12月10日推出「香港健康碼」 |
| 29/11/21 | 政府因應Omicron疫情禁止多個國家非港人入境 |
| 26/11/21 | 新冠肺炎新變種病毒於非洲蔓延，政府禁止非洲八國非港人入境 |
| 25/11/21 | 政府指中港通關進展良好，「香港健康碼」將於十二月推出 |
| 23/11/21 | 政府宣布12月9日起擴大強制使用「安心出行」應用程式範圍 |
| 19/11/21 | 候選人資格審查委員會公布立法會選舉候選人審查結果 |
| 12/11/21 | 立法會選舉提名期結束，154人報名競逐90個席位 |
| 10/11/21 | 兩名機師獲豁免檢疫後確診 |
| 9/11/21 | 中電和港燈明年將分別加價5.8%和7% |
| 3/11/21 | 政府公布第三劑新冠疫苗接種安排 |
| 1/11/21 | 五人涉使用假「安心出行」應用程式被捕 |
| 31/10/21 | 明天起進入政府處所須強制使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 26/10/21 | 政府將取消大部分豁免檢疫群組以促成中港通關 |
| 8/10/21 | 政府公布《香港2030+》策略規劃最終報告 |
| 7/10/21 | 施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」 |
| 6/10/21 | 林鄭月娥發表任內最後一份施政報告 |
| 1/10/21 | 政府舉行國慶升旗儀式和酒會 |
| 27/9/21 | 政府發布香港營商環境報告 |
| 27/9/21 | 高級督察林婉儀於追截走私快艇期間墮海死亡 |
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 7/9/21 | 政府恢復「回港易」計劃，並將推出「來港易」計劃 |
| 6/9/21 | 中央政府公布前海發展方案 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.6分，與半個月前分別不大，有35%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負45個百分點，比半個月前顯著下跌9個百分點。
局長方面，十三位局長之中有三位的民望淨值錄得正數，分別是聶德權、黃錦星和鄧炳強。對比約三個月前，全部局長的民望淨值均告下跌，當中羅致光、陳帆、黃錦星、許正宇、邱騰華和黃偉綸的民望淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為5.03、4.82、4.77、4.59和3.94分，當中「安定」、「自由」和「繁榮」指標相比一個月前錄得顯著跌幅。
Dec 7, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Kenneth Chan - Member, Election Observation Project
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Online Commentator:
KC Poon - Independent Commentator
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Directors of Bureaux
along with five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late November to early December. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. They are Patrick Nip, Wong Kam-sing and Chris Tang. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 44.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 29/11-3/12/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 44.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Directors of Bureaux
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | 44.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | 34.6+/-2.0 | -2.8 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22% | 23% | 24% | 21+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
66% | 59%[4] | 64%[4] | 66% | 60%[4] | 66+/-3% | +6%[4] |
| Net approval rate | -46% | -35%[4] | -42% | -42% | -36% | -45+/-5% | -9%[4] |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux sorted by net approval rates[5] are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 3-7/5/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 614-647 | 606-626 | 604-631 | 601-636 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.5% | 46.4% | 44.2% | 44.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 24% | 32%[6] | 30% | 31+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 39% | 32%[6] | 27% | 29+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -15% | 1%[6] | 3% | 2+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 29%[6] | 29% | 33% | 27+/-4% | -6%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 27% | 22%[6] | 18% | 26+/-4% | +7%[6] |
| Net approval rate | 2% | 7% | 14% | 1+/-6% | -13%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | -- | 43% | 43% | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | -- | 41% | 40% | 39+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | 2% | 2% | 1+/-7% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 21% | 26%[6] | 27% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 25% | 20%[6] | 20% | 23+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -5% | 6%[6] | 7% | -<1+/-6% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 26% | 33%[6] | 33% | 27+/-4% | -5%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 35% | 30% | 27% | 31+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -9% | 3%[6] | 6% | -3+/-6% | -9%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 18% | 24%[6] | 22% | 19+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 25% | 16%[6] | 17% | 23+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -7% | 8%[6] | 5% | -4+/-5% | -9%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 18% | 22%[6] | 22% | 17+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 24%[6] | 18%[6] | 16% | 22+/-3% | +6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -6% | 5%[6] | 7% | -5+/-5% | -12%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 19% | 28%[6] | 25% | 27+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 41% | 30%[6] | 27% | 34+/-4% | +6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -22% | -2%[6] | -2% | -7+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 21% | 22% | 26% | 18+/-3% | -8%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 30% | 26% | 26% | 26+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -9% | -4% | <1% | -8+/-5% | -8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 24%[6] | 26% | 29% | 22+/-3% | -7%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 35% | 29%[6] | 23%[6] | 31+/-4% | +8%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -11%[6] | -4% | 5%[6] | -9+/-6% | -15%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 26% | 32%[6] | 32% | 25+/-4% | -7%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 37% | 30%[6] | 24%[6] | 37+/-4% | +12%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -12% | 3%[6] | 8% | -12+/-6% | -20%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 24% | 28% | 25% | 24+/-4% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 45% | 36%[6] | 38% | 40+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -8%[6] | -13% | -16+/-6% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 14% | 22%[6] | 21% | 17+/-3% | -5%[6] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 58% | 51%[6] | 48% | 48+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -44% | -29%[6] | -27% | -31+/-6% | -4% |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her latest approval rate is 21%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Security Chris Tang. The 4th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Patrick Nip, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Law Chi-kwong, Sophia Chan, Frank Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Caspar Tsui and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam falls into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the Directors of Bureaux:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Secretary for Security Chris Tang (40%)
Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (31%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (27%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (27%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (27%) Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (25%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (24%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (22%) Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (17%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[7]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (23%, 46%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong (19%, 41%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (18%, 44%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (17%, 38%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| CE Carrie Lam (66%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 29/11-3/12/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 635-666 | 593-605 | 602-611 | 599-610 | 598-602 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.4% | 44.2% | 62.9% | 50.1% | 44.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of stability | 4.99 | 5.07 | 5.48[8] | 5.42 | 5.03+/-0.23 | -0.39[8] |
| Degree of freedom | 5.11[8] | 4.95 | 5.12 | 5.18 | 4.82+/-0.26 | -0.36[8] |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.52[8] | 5.02[8] | 5.26 | 5.35 | 4.77+/-0.20 | -0.58[8] |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 5.06[8] | 4.64[8] | 4.86 | 4.87 | 4.59+/-0.25 | -0.28 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.02 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.16 | 3.94+/-0.26 | -0.23 |
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 29 November to 3 December, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 2/12/21 | The government will launch “Hong Kong Health Code” on December 10. |
| 29/11/21 | The government bans non-residents arriving from multiple countries in response to the spread of Omicron variant. |
| 26/11/21 | The government bans non-residents arriving from eight African countries due to the spread of new coronavirus variant in Africa. |
| 25/11/21 | The government says the progress of border reopening between mainland China and Hong Kong is promising, and that “Hong Kong Health Code” will be launched in December. |
| 23/11/21 | The government announces the extension of mandatory use of “LeaveHomeSafe” app to more premises starting from December 9. |
| 19/11/21 | The Candidate Eligibility Review Committee announces the review results of candidates for the Legislative Council election. |
| 12/11/21 | Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats. |
| 10/11/21 | Two pilots exempted from quarantine test positive. |
| 9/11/21 | CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will increase their tariffs by 5.8% and 7% respectively. |
| 3/11/21 | The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination. |
| 1/11/21 | Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps. |
| 31/10/21 | Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 26/10/21 | The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China. |
| 8/10/21 | The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 6/10/21 | Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office. |
| 1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
| 27/9/21 | The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment. |
| 27/9/21 | Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
| 6/9/21 | The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 34.6 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago, while 35% of respondents gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 45 percentage points, which has significantly decreased by 9 percentage points compared to half a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, 3 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. They are Patrick Nip, Wong Kam-sing and Chris Tang. Compared to around three months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone down. Among them, those of Law Chi-kwong, Frank Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Christopher Hui, Edward Yau and Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling error.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.03, 4.82, 4.77, 4.59 and 3.94 respectively. Among them, the “stability”, “freedom” and “prosperity” indicators have registered significant drops compared with a month ago.
