2021年11月23日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
陳家洛 - 選舉觀察計劃成員
任偉豪 - 香港教育中心商會副主席
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
網上評論嘉賓:
李傲然 - 前油尖旺區議員
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十一月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,004名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為37.4分，有33%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負36個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，信任淨值則為負2個百分點，再創2019年1月以來新高。至於市民對現時政治、經濟及民生狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負23、負24及負28個百分點，當中政治狀況滿意淨值創2011年12月以來新高。民情指數方面，最新數字為88.4，比十一月上旬上升2.3點。調查的實效回應比率為53.7%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.2。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 15-18/11/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,004 (包括504個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 53.7% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.2 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4+/-2.2 | +1.7 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22% | 23% | 24+/-3% | +1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 65% | 66% | 59%[4] | 64%[4] | 66% | 60+/-3% | -5%[4] |
| 支持率淨值 | -41% | -46% | -35%[4] | -42% | -42% | -36+/-5% | +6% |
[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在6/10/2021進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分5分，特首支持率淨值負48個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字較適宜與上次於16-23/9/2021進行的定期調查比較。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[5] | 24%[6] | 24% | 21% | 25% | 26% | 26+/-3% | -- |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[5] | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54% | 55% | 56+/-4% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -36%[6] | -34% | -38% | -30% | -29% | -30+/-7% | -1% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.3[6] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| 信任特區政府比率[5] | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 38% | 42+/-4% | +4% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[5] | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 44+/-4% | -- |
| 信任淨值 | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13% | -6% | -2+/-7% | +4% |
| 平均量值[5] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[7] | 20% | 26%[8] | 24% | 28%[8] | 25% | 29+/-3% | +4% |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[7] | 61% | 57%[8] | 58% | 54% | 53% | 52+/-3% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -41% | -30%[8] | -34% | -25%[8] | -28% | -23+/-5% | +5% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.1 | 2.3[8] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[7] | 18% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 25%[8] | 27+/-3% | +2% |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[7] | 56%[8] | 54% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 51+/-3% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32% | -26% | -24+/-5% | +3% |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[7] | 19% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 25% | 27+/-3% | +3% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[7] | 56%[8] | 57% | 54% | 52% | 52% | 55+/-3% | +3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -36%[8] | -36% | -34% | -29% | -27% | -28+/-5% | -- |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為37.4分，有33%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為24%，反對率為60%，民望淨值為負36個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為26%，不滿率為56%，滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，而平均量值為2.4分，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為42%，不信任比率44%，信任淨值為負2個百分點，再創2019年1月以來新高。而平均量值為2.8分，即整體上接近「一半半」。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
至於市民對現時政治、經濟及民生狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為29%、27%及27%，而滿意淨值就分別為負23、負24及負28個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.4至2.6，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。三者的滿意淨值相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化，但政治狀況滿意淨值就創2011年12月以來新高。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：88.4 (+2.3) | 政評數值：81.8 (+2.0) | 社評數值：90.2 (+2.1) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | 7/10/21 | 22/10/21 | 3/11/21 | 18/11/21 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 81.6 | 83.5 | 85.4 | 86.5 | 86.1 | 88.4 | +2.3 |
| 政評數值 | 75.4 | 76.3 | 79.6 | 80.5 | 79.8 | 81.8 | +2.0 |
| 特首評分 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3 | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | +1.7 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -41% | -46% | -35% | -42% | -42% | -36% | +6% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.3[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | -- |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.6[9] | 2.6 | 2.6[9] | 2.7 | 2.7[9] | 2.8 | +0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 84.5[9] | 87.0 | 87.0[9] | 88.1 | 88.1[9] | 90.2 | +2.1 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.3[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | -- |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.5[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | 2.5[9] | 2.6 | -- |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | 2.5[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | -- |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | -- |
[9] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較十一月上旬上升2.3點至88.4，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的22個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值上升2.0點至81.8，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升2.1點至90.2。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的11個和26個百分比。民情指數和政評數值均再創2019年6月初以來新高，社評數值則創2019年4月以來新高。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為18-22/10/2021，而今次調查日期則為15-18/11/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 15/11/21 | 專家建議接種科興疫苗年齡下限降至3歲 |
| 13/11/21 | 專家建議政府設立「疫苗護照」 |
| 12/11/21 | 立法會選舉提名期結束，154人報名競逐90個席位 |
| 11/11/21 | 中共六中全會通過中共黨史上第三份歷史決議 |
| 10/11/21 | 兩名機師獲豁免檢疫後確診 |
| 9/11/21 | 中電和港燈明年將分別加價5.8%和7% |
| 5/11/21 | 林鄭月娥表示希望明年二月中港兩地有規模通關 |
| 3/11/21 | 政府公布第三劑新冠疫苗接種安排 |
| 1/11/21 | 五人涉使用假「安心出行」應用程式被捕 |
| 31/10/21 | 明天起進入政府處所須強制使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 27/10/21 | 專家建議特定群組接種第三劑新冠疫苗 |
| 26/10/21 | 政府將取消大部分豁免檢疫群組以促成中港通關 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為37.4分，有33%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負36個百分點，評分和民望淨值相比半個月前均沒有顯著變化。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，信任淨值則為負2個百分點，再創2019年1月以來新高。至於市民對現時政治、經濟及民生狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負23、負24及負28個百分點，當中政治狀況滿意淨值創2011年12月以來新高。
民情指數方面，最新數字為88.4，比十一月上旬上升2.3點。
Nov 23, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-November. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively, of which the net satisfaction rate of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November. The effective response rate of the survey is 53.7% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 15-18/11/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 504 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 53.7% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | 15-18/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | 1,004 | 1,004 | -- |
| Response rate | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | 50.1% | 53.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4+/-2.2 | +1.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22% | 23% | 24+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
65% | 66% | 59%[4] | 64%[4] | 66% | 60+/-3% | -5%[4] |
| Net approval rate | -41% | -46% | -35%[4] | -42% | -42% | -36+/-5% | +6% |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | 598-622 | 655-677 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 24%[6] | 24% | 21% | 25% | 26% | 26+/-3% | -- |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54% | 55% | 56+/-4% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -36%[6] | -34% | -38% | -30% | -29% | -30+/-7% | -1% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.3[6] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[5] | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35% | 38% | 42+/-4% | +4% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[5] | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 44+/-4% | -- |
| Net trust | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13% | -6% | -2+/-7% | +4% |
| Mean value[5] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 18-22/10/21 | 15-18/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | 1,000 | 1,004 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | 52.2% | 53.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
20% | 26%[8] | 24% | 28%[8] | 25% | 29+/-3% | +4% |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
61% | 57%[8] | 58% | 54% | 53% | 52+/-3% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -41% | -30%[8] | -34% | -25%[8] | -28% | -23+/-5% | +5% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.1 | 2.3[8] | 2.3 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
18% | 20% | 23% | 21% | 25%[8] | 27+/-3% | +2% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
56%[8] | 54% | 51% | 53% | 51% | 51+/-3% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32% | -26% | -24+/-5% | +3% |
| Mean value[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[7] |
19% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 25% | 27+/-3% | +3% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[7] |
56%[8] | 57% | 54% | 52% | 52% | 55+/-3% | +3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -36%[8] | -36% | -34% | -29% | -27% | -28+/-5% | -- |
| Mean value[7] | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | -- |
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 60%, giving a net popularity of negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 26%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 56%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 30 percentage points. The mean score is 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 42% of the respondents expressed trust, 44% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 29%, 27% and 27% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall within 2.4 and 2.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. All three net satisfaction rates have not changed significantly compared to a month ago, but that of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 88.4 (+2.3) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 81.8 (+2.0) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 90.2 (+2.1) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | 7/10/21 | 22/10/21 | 3/11/21 | 18/11/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 81.6 | 83.5 | 85.4 | 86.5 | 86.1 | 88.4 | +2.3 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 75.4 | 76.3 | 79.6 | 80.5 | 79.8 | 81.8 | +2.0 |
| Rating of CE | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3 | 37.0 | 35.7 | 37.4 | +1.7 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -41% | -46% | -35% | -42% | -42% | -36% | +6% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.3[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | -- |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.6[9] | 2.6 | 2.6[9] | 2.7 | 2.7[9] | 2.8 | +0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 84.5[9] | 87.0 | 87.0[9] | 88.1 | 88.1[9] | 90.2 | +2.1 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.3[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.4 | -- |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | 0.31[9] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.5[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | 2.5[9] | 2.6 | -- |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | 0.34[9] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | 2.5[9] | 2.4 | 2.4[9] | 2.5 | -- |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | 0.35[9] | -- |
[9] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November. It can be considered as among the worst 22% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 2.0 points to 81.8, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 2.1 points to 90.2. They can be considered as among the worst 11% and 26% across the past 20 years or so respectively. PSI and GA have again registered their record highs since early June 2019, while SA has registered a record high since April 2019.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 18 to 22 October, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 15 to 18 November, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 15/11/21 | Experts recommend the government to lower the age requirement for taking the Sinovac vaccine to 3 years old. |
| 13/11/21 | Experts recommend the government to introduce “vaccine passport”. |
| 12/11/21 | Nomination period for Legislative Council election ends with 154 candidates competing for 90 seats. |
| 11/11/21 | The sixth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the third historical resolution in party history. |
| 10/11/21 | Two pilots exempted from quarantine test positive. |
| 9/11/21 | CLP Power and Hongkong Electric will increase their tariffs by 5.8% and 7% respectively. |
| 5/11/21 | Carrie Lam hopes that border between mainland China and Hong Kong can be largely reopened in February next year. |
| 3/11/21 | The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination. |
| 1/11/21 | Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps. |
| 31/10/21 | Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 27/10/21 | Experts recommends certain groups of people to take the third dose of COVID-19 vaccine. |
| 26/10/21 | The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 37.4 marks, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 36 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not registered any significant change compared to half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 2 percentage points, registering a new record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 23, negative 24 and negative 28 percentage points respectively, of which the net satisfaction rate of political condition has registered a record high since December 2011.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 88.4, up by 2.3 points from early November.
