2021年10月19日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
吳凱宇 - 前香港教育大學社會科學系講師
潘麒智 - 獨立評論人
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於九至十月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分兩階段成功訪問了1,036和1,010名香港居民。調查顯示，6位最多人認識的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、何君堯、梁美芬、田北辰和麥美娟，支持度排首位的是田北辰，得47.7分。第二至三位是葉劉淑儀和李慧琼，分別得42.8及39.2分。然後是梁美芬和何君堯，分別得37.1及32.8分。而麥美娟得34.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。梁美芬的評分較上次調查顯著上升4.2分，而田北辰的評分則創其自2013年首次被評分以來新低。評分調查的實效回應比率為62.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-2.9。
樣本資料
| 立法會議員提名 | 立法會議員評分 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 16-23/9/2021 | 4-7/10/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,036 (包括517個固網及519個手機樣本) |
1,010 (包括508個固網及502個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 44.1% | 62.9% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的議員，結果首6位最多被訪者提及的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、何君堯、梁美芬、田北辰和麥美娟，他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出五大立法會議員。以下是五大立法會議員的最新評分，按評分高至低排列[3]：
| 調查日期 | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目 | 500 | 504 | 572-658 | 656-704 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 68.1% | 58.3% | 54.5% | 62.9% | -- | |
| 最新結果[4] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 田北辰 | -- | -- | -- | 47.7+/-2.1{1} | 89.5% | -- |
| 葉劉淑儀 | -- | -- | 39.8{1} | 42.8+/-2.7{2} | 92.7% | +3.0 |
| 李慧琼 | 32.8{5}[5] | 32.2{4} | 38.6{3}[5] | 39.2+/-2.6{3} | 88.4% | +0.6 |
| 梁美芬 | -- | 25.9{5} | 32.9{4}[5] | 37.1+/-2.8{4} | 84.0% | +4.2[5] |
| 何君堯 | -- | -- | -- | 32.8+/-2.9{5} | 89.4% | -- |
| 麥美娟 | -- | -- | -- | 34.2+/-2.7[6] | 78.8% | -- |
| 謝偉俊 | -- | -- | 39.5{2} | -- | -- | -- |
| 鄭松泰 | -- | -- | 28.3{5} | -- | -- | -- |
| 葛珮帆 | -- | -- | 32.4[6] | -- | -- | -- |
| 鄺俊宇 | 60.4{1} | 57.3{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 涂謹申 | -- | 46.4{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 毛孟靜 | 50.5{4} | 44.7{3}[5] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 楊岳橋 | 53.5{2} | 44.8[5] [6] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 朱凱廸 | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 譚文豪 | 56.1[6] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[4] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[6] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對立法會議員的最新支持度排名，首位是田北辰，得47.7分。第二至三位是葉劉淑儀和李慧琼，分別得42.8及39.2分。然後是梁美芬和何君堯，分別得37.1及32.8分。而麥美娟得34.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。梁美芬的評分較上次調查顯著上升4.2分，而田北辰的評分則創其自2013年首次被評分以來新低。
須要說明，躋身「五大議員」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「五大」以外的議員，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的議員，所以不在榜內。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為19-22/4/2021，而今次調查日期則為4-7/10/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 6/10/21 | 林鄭月娥發表任內最後一份施政報告 |
| 1/10/21 | 政府舉行國慶升旗儀式和酒會 |
| 27/9/21 | 高級督察林婉儀於追截走私快艇期間墮海死亡 |
| 19/9/21 | 選舉委員會界別分組選舉今日舉行 |
| 31/8/21 | 政府提出修例，放寬引入非本地培訓醫生條件 |
| 26/8/21 | 立法會通過垃圾徵費條例草案 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 23/8/21 | 中央政府官員向港府官員講解「十四五規劃」 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 1/8/21 | 政府派發首期2,000元電子消費券 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
數據分析
調查顯示，6位最多人認識的議員分別是李慧琼、葉劉淑儀、何君堯、梁美芬、田北辰和麥美娟，支持度排首位的是田北辰，得47.7分。第二至三位是葉劉淑儀和李慧琼，分別得42.8及39.2分。然後是梁美芬和何君堯，分別得37.1及32.8分。而麥美娟得34.2分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。梁美芬的評分較上次調查顯著上升4.2分，而田北辰的評分則創其自2013年首次被評分以來新低。
Oct 19, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Hoi-Yu Ng - Former Lecturer, Department of Social Sciences, Education University of Hong Kong
Ms KC Poon - Independent Commentator
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,036 and 1,010 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in September and October. Our survey shows that Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Michael Tien tops the list with 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013. The effective response rate of the rating survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Legislative Councillors Naming | Legislative Councillors Rating | ||
| Date of survey | : | 16-23/9/2021 | 4-7/10/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,036 (including 517 landline and 519 mobile samples) | 1,010 (including 508 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 44.1% | 62.9% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak were the top 6 councillors being mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[3]:
| Date of survey | 1-2/4/20 | 19-20/10/20 | 19-22/4/21 | 4-7/10/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 500 | 504 | 572-658 | 656-704 | -- | |
| Response rate | 68.1% | 58.3% | 54.5% | 62.9% | -- | |
| Latest findings[4] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Michael Tien | -- | -- | -- | 47.7+/-2.1{1} | 89.5% | -- |
| Regina Ip | -- | -- | 39.8{1} | 42.8+/-2.7{2} | 92.7% | +3.0 |
| Starry Lee | 32.8{5}[5] | 32.2{4} | 38.6{3}[5] | 39.2+/-2.6{3} | 88.4% | +0.6 |
| Priscilla Leung | -- | 25.9{5} | 32.9{4}[5] | 37.1+/-2.8{4} | 84.0% | +4.2[5] |
| Junius Ho | -- | -- | -- | 32.8+/-2.9{5} | 89.4% | -- |
| Alice Mak | -- | -- | -- | 34.2+/-2.7[6] | 78.8% | -- |
| Paul Tse | -- | -- | 39.5{2} | -- | -- | -- |
| Cheng Chung-tai | -- | -- | 28.3{5} | -- | -- | -- |
| Elizabeth Quat | -- | -- | 32.4[6] | -- | -- | -- |
| Roy Kwong | 60.4{1} | 57.3{1} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| James To | -- | 46.4{2} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Claudia Mo | 50.5{4} | 44.7{3}[5] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Alvin Yeung | 53.5{2} | 44.8[5] [6] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Eddie Chu | 52.6{3} | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jeremy Tam | 56.1[6] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[3] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[4] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that Michael Tien is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 7 October, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/10/21 | Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office. |
| 1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
| 27/9/21 | Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats. |
| 19/9/21 | Election Committee Subsector Elections are held today. |
| 31/8/21 | The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong. |
| 26/8/21 | The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 23/8/21 | Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Junius Ho, Priscilla Leung, Michael Tien and Alice Mak are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Michael Tien tops the list with 47.7 marks. Regina Ip and Starry Lee rank the 2nd and 3rd with 42.8 and 39.2 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Junius Ho follow with 37.1 and 32.8 marks respectively, whereas Alice Mak obtains a rating of 34.2 marks, but is dropped due to her relatively low recognition rate. The rating of Priscilla Leung has increased significantly by 4.2 marks compared with the last survey, while that of Michael Tien has registered record low since he was first rated in 2013.
