民研計劃發放特首民望數字以及五項核心社會指標 (2021-10-12)

新聞公報

Press Release

結果簡報

新聞公報

研究報告

採訪邀請

下次採訪邀請

2021年10月12日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

發佈會直播

講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
黎廣德 - 公共專業聯盟政策召集人
任偉豪 - 香港教育中心商會副主席
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)

民研計劃發放特首民望數字以及五項核心社會指標

特別宣佈

香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。

公報簡要

民研計劃於十月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,010名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為38.3分，有28%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負35個百分點，兩者均比半個月前上升，並創2019年6月初以來新高。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「繁榮」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為5.48、5.26、5.12、4.86和4.28分。相比一個月前，「安定」指標顯著上升，再創2019年5月以來新高。調查的實效回應比率為62.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1。

樣本資料

調查日期	：	4-7/10/2021
調查方法	：	由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象	：	18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目^[1]	：	1,010 (包括508個固網及502個手機樣本)
實效回應比率	：	62.9%
抽樣誤差^[2]	：	在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1
加權方法	：	按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。

^{[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。}
^{[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。}

特首民望

以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：

調查日期	19-22/7/21	9-12/8/21	20-26/8/21	6-10/9/21	16-23/9/21	*4-7/10/21^[3]*	*最新變化*
樣本數目	1,000	1,002	1,003	1,000	1,036	*1,010*	--
回應比率	48.5%	49.4%	52.9%	44.2%	44.1%	*62.9%*	--
最新結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	*結果及誤差*	--
特首林鄭月娥評分	34.7	35.1	33.8	35.6	33.9	*38.3+/-2.1*	*+4.4^[4]*
林鄭月娥出任特首支持率	20%	20%	20%	24%^[4]	20%^[4]	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[4]*
林鄭月娥出任特首反對率	68%	66%	68%	65%	66%	*59+/-3%*	*-6%^[4]*
支持率淨值	-48%	-46%	-48%	-41%	-46%	*-35+/-5%*	*+11%^[4]*

^{[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在6/10/2021進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分30.5分，特首支持率淨值負48個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字較適宜與上次於16-23/9/2021進行的定期調查比較。}
^{[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。}

最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為38.3分，有28%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為24%，反對率為59%，民望淨值為負35個百分點，評分和民望淨值均比半個月前上升，並創2019年6月初以來新高。

核心社會指標

以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：

調查日期	7-10/6/21	30/6-8/7/21	9-12/8/21	6-10/9/21	*4-7/10/21*	*最新變化*
樣本數目	602-607	595-606	635-666	593-605	*602-611*	--
回應比率	55.1%	46.4%	49.4%	44.2%	*62.9%*	--
最新結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	*結果及誤差*	--
安定指標	4.80^[5]	4.76	4.99	5.07	*5.48+/-0.23*	*+0.41^[5]*
繁榮指標	4.83^[5]	4.94	5.52^[5]	5.02^[5]	*5.26+/-0.20*	*+0.24*
自由指標	4.77	4.56	5.11^[5]	4.95	*5.12+/-0.26*	*+0.17*
法治指標	4.39^[5]	4.48	5.06^[5]	4.64^[5]	*4.86+/-0.25*	*+0.22*
民主指標	3.82	4.04	4.02	4.28	*4.28+/-0.26*	--

^{[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。}

以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「安定」、「繁榮」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為5.48、5.26、5.12、4.86和4.28分。相比一個月前，「安定」指標顯著上升，再創2019年5月以來新高。

民意日誌

民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為6-10/9/2021，而今次調查日期則為4-7/10/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：

7/10/21	施政報告提出發展「北部都會區」
6/10/21	林鄭月娥發表任內最後一份施政報告
1/10/21	政府舉行國慶升旗儀式和酒會
27/9/21	政府發佈香港營商環境報告
27/9/21	高級督察林婉儀於追截走私快艇期間墮海死亡
24/9/21	中國外交部發表《美國干預香港事務、支持反中亂港勢力事實清單》
20/9/21	364人當選選舉委員會委員
20/9/21	傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌
19/9/21	選舉委員會界別分組選舉今日舉行
7/9/21	政府恢復「回港易」計劃，並將推出「來港易」計劃
6/9/21	中央政府公佈前海發展方案

數據分析

調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為38.3分，有28%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負35個百分點，兩者均比半個月前上升，並創2019年6月初以來新高。

Press Invitation for next PC

October 12, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Albert Lai - Policy Committee Convenor, The Professional Commons
Jacob Yam - Vice Chairman, The Hong Kong Chamber of Education Centres
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI

POP releases popularity figures of CE along with five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,010 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early October. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. Both have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.48, 5.26, 5.12, 4.86 and 4.28 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “stability” indicator has increased significantly, registering another new high since May 2019. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	4-7/10/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,010 (including 508 landline and 502 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	62.9%
Sampling error^[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

^{[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.}
^{[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.}

Popularity of CE

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-22/7/21	9-12/8/21	20-26/8/21	6-10/9/21	16-23/9/21	*4-7/10/21^[3]*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,000	1,002	1,003	1,000	1,036	*1,010*	--
Response rate	48.5%	49.4%	52.9%	44.2%	44.1%	*62.9%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	34.7	35.1	33.8	35.6	33.9	*38.3+/-2.1*	*+4.4^[4]*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	20%	20%	20%	24%^[4]	20%^[4]	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[4]*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	68%	66%	68%	65%	66%	*59+/-3%*	*-6%^[4]*
Net approval rate	-48%	-46%	-48%	-41%	-46%	*-35+/-5%*	*+11%^[4]*

^{[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 30.5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.}
^{[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.}

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019.

Core Social Indicators

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey	7-10/6/21	30/6-8/7/21	9-12/8/21	6-10/9/21	*4-7/10/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	602-607	595-606	635-666	593-605	*602-611*	--
Response rate	55.1%	46.4%	49.4%	44.2%	*62.9%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Degree of stability	4.80^[5]	4.76	4.99	5.07	*5.48+/-0.23*	*+0.41^[5]*
Degree of prosperity	4.83^[5]	4.94	5.52^[5]	5.02^[5]	*5.26+/-0.20*	*+0.24*
Degree of freedom	4.77	4.56	5.11^[5]	4.95	*5.12+/-0.26*	*+0.17*
Compliance with the rule of law	4.39^[5]	4.48	5.06^[5]	4.64^[5]	*4.86+/-0.25*	*+0.22*
Degree of democracy	3.82	4.04	4.02	4.28	*4.28+/-0.26*	--

^{[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.}

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.48, 5.26, 5.12, 4.86 and 4.28 respectively. Compared with a month ago, the “stability” indicator has increased significantly, registering another new high since May 2019.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 7 October, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

7/10/21	The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”.
6/10/21	Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office.
1/10/21	The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day.
27/9/21	The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment.
27/9/21	Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats.
24/9/21	China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes the “Fact Sheet: U.S. Interference in Hong Kong Affairs and Support for Anti-China, Destabilizing Forces”.
20/9/21	364 members of the Election Committee are elected.
20/9/21	Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers.
19/9/21	Election Committee Subsector Elections are held today.
7/9/21	The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme.
6/9/21	The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 38.3 marks, with 28% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 35 percentage points. Both have increased significantly compared to half a month ago, registering record highs since early June 2019.

...