2021年9月28日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
龔偉森 - 前香港政策透視主席、大專兼任講師及青年工作社工
任偉豪 - 香港教育中心商會副主席
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
民研計劃發放特首和政府民望數字、
政治團體民望以及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於九月由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，分別成功訪問了1,000和1,036名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為33.9分，有36%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負46個百分點，評分和民望淨值均與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高，信任淨值則為負13個百分點。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負25、負29及負32個百分點。與上個月比較，政治狀況的滿意率淨值顯著上升8個百分點，並創2011年以來新高，而民生狀況的滿意率淨值亦創2019年3月以來新高。市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名，第一至五位是職工盟、公民黨、民主黨、支聯會和工聯會，分別得41.3、40.5、40.3、39.2及38.3分；第六至十位則是社民連、民建聯、自由黨、新民黨和人民力量，分別得38.1、37.4、37.2、35.6及35.4分。另外，民協和經民聯分別得39.6及30.1分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比五個月前，工聯會和新民黨的評分顯著上升，他們以及民建聯和經民聯的評分是2019年4月以來新高。同時，職工盟的評分亦創2015年以來新高。另一方面，支聯會事隔8年再次上榜，但評分屬於1992年有紀錄以來最低，而人民力量的評分則創2017年以來新低。民情指數方面，最新數字為83.5，比九月上旬上升1.9點。調查的實效回應比率分別為44.2%和44.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7。
樣本資料
| 政治團體提名 | 政治團體評分及其他 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 6-10/9/2021 | 16-23/9/2021 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括500個固網及500個手機樣本) |
1,036 (包括517個固網及519個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 44.2% | 44.1% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9+/-2.0 | -1.8 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24%[3] | 20+/-2% | -4%[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 67% | 68% | 66% | 68% | 65% | 66+/-3% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46+/-5% | -5% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 548-613 | 566-646 | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[4] | 19% | 17% | 24%[5] | 24% | 21% | 25+/-3% | +4% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[4] | 59% | 63% | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54+/-4% | -5% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -40% | -46% | -36%[5] | -34% | -38% | -30+/-6% | +8% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[4] | 32% | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35+/-4% | +1% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[4] | 52% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48+/-4% | -2% |
| 信任淨值 | -20% | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13+/-7% | +3% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[6] | 20% | 20% | 20% | 26%[7] | 24% | 28+/-3% | +4%[7] |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[6] | 60% | 61% | 61% | 57%[7] | 58% | 54+/-3% | -4% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -39% | -40% | -41% | -30%[7] | -34% | -25+/-5% | +8%[7] |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[7] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[6] | 15% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 23+/-3% | +3% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[6] | 64% | 62% | 56%[7] | 57% | 54% | 52+/-3% | -2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -49% | -44% | -36%[7] | -36% | -34% | -29+/-5% | +5% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[6] | 14% | 17%[7] | 18% | 20% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[6] | 63% | 60% | 56%[7] | 54% | 51% | 53+/-3% | +2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -49% | -43% | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32+/-5% | -4% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.2[7] | 2.3 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[6] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為33.9分，有36%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為20%，反對率為66%，民望淨值為負46個百分點，評分和民望淨值均與半個月前分別不大。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為25%，不滿率為54%，滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高。而平均量值為2.4分，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為35%，不信任比率48%，信任淨值為負13個百分點。而平均量值為2.6分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為28%、23%及21%，而滿意淨值就分別為負25、負29及負32個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.4至2.5，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。與上個月比較，政治狀況的滿意率淨值顯著上升8個百分點，並創2011年以來新高，而民生狀況的滿意率淨值亦創2019年3月以來新高。
政治團體民望
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10個最熟悉的政治團體，結果最多被訪者提及的政治團體分別是民建聯、民主黨、公民黨、工聯會、支聯會、自由黨、新民黨、熱血公民、教協、社民連、經民聯、民協、人民力量、民陣及職工盟。當中熱血公民、教協及民陣當時已經解散，其餘團體則被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別政治團體以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的兩個再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出十大政治團體。以下是十大政治團體的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[8]：
| 調查日期 | 16-17/4/20 | 21-22/10/20 | 7-9/4/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目 | 500 | 510 | 530-705 | 668-712 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 61.6% | 65.9% | 50.1% | 44.1% | -- | |
| 最新結果[9] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 職工盟 | -- | -- | -- | 41.3+/-2.6{1} | 73.8% | -- |
| 公民黨 | 39.4{5}[10] | 39.3{4} | 38.2{3} | 40.5+/-2.4{2} | 78.0% | +2.3 |
| 民主黨 | 42.9{2} | 42.5{2} | 38.8{2}[10] | 40.3+/-2.2{3} | 86.1% | +1.5 |
| 支聯會 | -- | -- | -- | 39.2+/-2.7{4} | 76.9% | -- |
| 工聯會 | 32.0{9} | 27.4{10}[10] | 33.0{8}[10] | 38.3+/-2.4{5} | 86.0% | +5.3[10] |
| 社民連 | 39.0{6} | 40.7{3} | 34.6{7}[10] | 38.1+/-2.5{6} | 74.8% | +3.4 |
| 民建聯 | 35.2{8}[10] | 27.4{9}[10] | 35.4{5}[10] | 37.4+/-2.6{7} | 90.6% | +2.0 |
| 自由黨 | 37.7{7} | 33.6{7}[10] | 35.0{6} | 37.2+/-2.0{8} | 78.7% | +2.1 |
| 新民黨 | 29.7{10} | 27.8{8} | 29.7{9} | 35.6+/-2.4{9} | 74.7% | +5.9[10] |
| 人民力量 | 40.0{4} | 42.9{1} | 38.2{4}[10] | 35.4+/-2.5{10} | 76.9% | -2.8 |
| 民協 | 41.6{3} | -- | 36.8[11] | 39.6+/-2.3[11] | 69.5% | +2.8 |
| 經民聯 | 29.6[11] | 25.3[10] [11] | 29.3[10] [11] | 30.1+/-2.5[11] | 59.4% | +0.8 |
| 民陣 | -- | -- | 40.2{1} | -- | -- | -- |
| 熱血公民 | -- | 35.6{6} | 28.7{10}[10] | -- | -- | -- |
| 工黨 | 35.8[11] | 36.8{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 新民主同盟 | -- | 38.4[11] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[9] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[11] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名，第一至五位是職工盟、公民黨、民主黨、支聯會和工聯會，分別得41.3、40.5、40.3、39.2及38.3分；第六至十位則是社民連、民建聯、自由黨、新民黨和人民力量，分別得38.1、37.4、37.2、35.6及35.4分。另外，民協和經民聯分別得39.6及30.1分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比五個月前，工聯會和新民黨的評分顯著上升，他們以及民建聯和經民聯的評分是2019年4月以來新高。同時，職工盟的評分亦創2015年以來新高。另一方面，支聯會事隔8年再次上榜，但評分屬於1992年有紀錄以來最低，而人民力量的評分則創2017年以來新低。
須要說明，躋身「十大政團」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「十大」以外的政治團體，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的政團，所以不在榜內。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
 |
|||
| 最新數值 | 民情指數：83.5 (+1.9) | 政評數值：76.3 (+1.0) | 社評數值：87.0 (+2.5) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 8/7/21 | 22/7/21 | 12/8/21 | 26/8/21 | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 77.1 | 81.1 | 81.3 | 80.7 | 81.6 | 83.5 | +1.9 |
| 政評數值 | 73.6 | 75.7 | 76.1 | 73.7 | 75.4 | 76.3 | +1.0 |
| 特首評分 | 34.0 | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | -1.8 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -5% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.6[12] | 2.7 | 2.7[12] | 2.6 | 2.6[12] | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 78.1[12] | 83.3 | 83.3[12] | 84.5 | 84.5[12] | 87.0 | +2.5 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.31 | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.5 | 2.5[12] | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34 | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.5 | +0.1 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35 | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | -- |
[12] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較九月上旬上升1.9點至83.5，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的14個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值上升1.0點至76.3，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升2.5點至87.0。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的6個和19個百分比。三者均再創2019年6月初以來新高。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為7-9/4/2021，而今次調查日期則為16-23/9/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 20/9/21 | 364人當選選舉委員會委員 |
| 20/9/21 | 傳中央政府向香港地產商施壓，各地產股大跌 |
| 15/9/21 | 跨境債券市場即將開展南向交易 |
| 10/9/21 | 粵港澳大灣區「跨境理財通」正式啟動 |
| 7/9/21 | 政府恢復「回港易」計劃，並將推出「來港易」計劃 |
| 6/9/21 | 中央政府公布前海發展方案 |
| 31/8/21 | 政府提出修例，放寬引入非本地培訓醫生條件 |
| 29/8/21 | 政府或推行全民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 26/8/21 | 立法會通過垃圾徵費條例草案 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 23/8/21 | 中央政府官員向港府官員講解「十四五規劃」 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 16/4/21 | 九位知名民主派人士就8月18日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為33.9分，有36%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負46個百分點，評分和民望淨值均與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面，最新滿意率淨值為負30個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高，信任淨值則為負13個百分點。至於市民對現時政治、民生及經濟狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負25、負29及負32個百分點。與上個月比較，政治狀況的滿意率淨值顯著上升8個百分點，並創2011年以來新高，而民生狀況的滿意率淨值亦創2019年3月以來新高。
市民對政治團體的最新支持度排名，第一至五位是職工盟、公民黨、民主黨、支聯會和工聯會，分別得41.3、40.5、40.3、39.2及38.3分；第六至十位則是社民連、民建聯、自由黨、新民黨和人民力量，分別得38.1、37.4、37.2、35.6及35.4分。另外，民協和經民聯分別得39.6及30.1分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。相比五個月前，工聯會和新民黨的評分顯著上升，他們以及民建聯和經民聯的評分是2019年4月以來新高。同時，職工盟的評分亦創2015年以來新高。另一方面，支聯會事隔8年再次上榜，但評分屬於1992年有紀錄以來最低，而人民力量的評分則創2017年以來新低。
民情指數方面，最新數字為83.5，比九月上旬上升1.9點。
Sep 28, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Wai-Sum Kung - Former Chairman of Hong Kong Policy Viewers,part-time lecturer and social worker of youth work
Wai-Ho Yam - Vice Chairman of The Hong Kong Chamber of Education Centres
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
POP releases popularity figures of CE, SAR Government and
political groups along with PSI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 and 1,036 Hong Kong residents respectively by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in September. Our surveys show that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019. The five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list again in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September. The effective response rates of the surveys are 44.2% and 44.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Political Groups Naming | Political Groups Rating and Others | ||
| Date of survey | : | 6-10/9/2021 | 16-23/9/2021 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) | 1,036 (including 517 landline and 519 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 44.2% | 44.1% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | -- |
| Response rate | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9+/-2.0 | -1.8 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24%[3] | 20+/-2% | -4%[3] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
67% | 68% | 66% | 68% | 65% | 66+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46+/-5% | -5% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 548-613 | 566-646 | 544-583 | 564-624 | 651-662 | 666-703 | -- |
| Response rate | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 19% | 17% | 24%[5] | 24% | 21% | 25+/-3% | +4% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 59% | 63% | 60% | 58% | 59% | 54+/-4% | -5% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -40% | -46% | -36%[5] | -34% | -38% | -30+/-6% | +8% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 32% | 31% | 34% | 38% | 34% | 35+/-4% | +1% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 52% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48+/-4% | -2% |
| Net trust | -20% | -22% | -18% | -12% | -16% | -13+/-7% | +3% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 16-23/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,003 | 1,036 | -- |
| Response rate | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | 52.9% | 44.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
20% | 20% | 20% | 26%[7] | 24% | 28+/-3% | +4%[7] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
60% | 61% | 61% | 57%[7] | 58% | 54+/-3% | -4% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -39% | -40% | -41% | -30%[7] | -34% | -25+/-5% | +8%[7] |
| Mean value[6] | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3[7] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
15% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 23+/-3% | +3% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
64% | 62% | 56%[7] | 57% | 54% | 52+/-3% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -49% | -44% | -36%[7] | -36% | -34% | -29+/-5% | +5% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
14% | 17%[7] | 18% | 20% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
63% | 60% | 56%[7] | 54% | 51% | 53+/-3% | +2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -49% | -43% | -38% | -33% | -28% | -32+/-5% | -4% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.2[7] | 2.3 | 2.4[7] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.4+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 25%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 54%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019. The mean score is 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 35% of the respondents expressed trust, 48% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 13 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 28%, 23% and 21% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. The mean scores fall within 2.4 and 2.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019.
Popularity of Political Groups
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party, Civic Party, Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HKASPDMC), Liberal Party, New People’s Party, Civic Passion, Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union (HKPTU), League of Social Democrats (LSD), Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL), People Power, Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) and Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (HKCTU) were the political groups mentioned most frequently. Among them, Civic Passion, HKPTU and CHRF have dissolved by that time, the rest then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual political groups using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom two political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 political groups. Recent ratings of the top 10 political groups are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[8]:
| Date of survey | 16-17/4/20 | 21-22/10/20 | 7-9/4/21 | 16-23/9/21 | Latest change | |
| Sample size | 500 | 510 | 530-705 | 668-712 | -- | |
| Response rate | 61.6% | 65.9% | 50.1% | 44.1% | -- | |
| Latest findings[9] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| HKCTU | -- | -- | -- | 41.3+/-2.6{1} | 73.8% | -- |
| Civic Party | 39.4{5}[10] | 39.3{4} | 38.2{3} | 40.5+/-2.4{2} | 78.0% | +2.3 |
| Democratic Party | 42.9{2} | 42.5{2} | 38.8{2}[10] | 40.3+/-2.2{3} | 86.1% | +1.5 |
| HKASPDMC | -- | -- | -- | 39.2+/-2.7{4} | 76.9% | -- |
| FTU | 32.0{9} | 27.4{10}[10] | 33.0{8}[10] | 38.3+/-2.4{5} | 86.0% | +5.3[10] |
| LSD | 39.0{6} | 40.7{3} | 34.6{7}[10] | 38.1+/-2.5{6} | 74.8% | +3.4 |
| DAB | 35.2{8}[10] | 27.4{9}[10] | 35.4{5}[10] | 37.4+/-2.6{7} | 90.6% | +2.0 |
| Liberal Party | 37.7{7} | 33.6{7}[10] | 35.0{6} | 37.2+/-2.0{8} | 78.7% | +2.1 |
| New People’s Party | 29.7{10} | 27.8{8} | 29.7{9} | 35.6+/-2.4{9} | 74.7% | +5.9[10] |
| People Power | 40.0{4} | 42.9{1} | 38.2{4}[10] | 35.4+/-2.5{10} | 76.9% | -2.8 |
| ADPL | 41.6{3} | -- | 36.8[11] | 39.6+/-2.3[11] | 69.5% | +2.8 |
| BPA | 29.6[11] | 25.3[10] [11] | 29.3[10] [11] | 30.1+/-2.5[11] | 59.4% | +0.8 |
| CHRF | -- | -- | 40.2{1} | -- | -- | -- |
| Civic Passion | -- | 35.6{6} | 28.7{10}[10] | -- | -- | -- |
| Labour Party | 35.8[11] | 36.8{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Neo Democrats | -- | 38.4[11] | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[9] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[11] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
Our latest survey shows that the five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 10” only includes political groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|||
| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 83.5 (+1.9) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 76.3 (+1.0) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 87.0 (+2.5) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 8/7/21 | 22/7/21 | 12/8/21 | 26/8/21 | 10/9/21 | 23/9/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 77.1 | 81.1 | 81.3 | 80.7 | 81.6 | 83.5 | +1.9 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 73.6 | 75.7 | 76.1 | 73.7 | 75.4 | 76.3 | +1.0 |
| Rating of CE | 34.0 | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | -1.8 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41% | -46% | -5% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.6[12] | 2.7 | 2.7[12] | 2.6 | 2.6[12] | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 78.1[12] | 83.3 | 83.3[12] | 84.5 | 84.5[12] | 87.0 | +2.5 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.1[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.3 | 2.3[12] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.31 | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | 0.31[12] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.5 | 2.5[12] | 2.4 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34 | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | 0.34[12] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.4 | 2.4[12] | 2.5 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35 | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | 0.35[12] | -- |
[12] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September. It can be considered as among the worst 14% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 1.0 point to 76.3, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 2.5 points to 87.0. They can be considered as among the worst 6% and 19% across the past 20 years or so respectively. All three have registered record highs again since early June 2019.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 9 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 23 September, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 15/9/21 | Southbound trading in cross-boundary bond markets will soon begin. |
| 10/9/21 | The Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is launched. |
| 7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
| 6/9/21 | The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai. |
| 31/8/21 | The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong. |
| 29/8/21 | The government may launch a universal COVID-19 vaccination programme for all residents. |
| 26/8/21 | The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 23/8/21 | Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 16/4/21 | 9 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 8.18 assembly. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 33.9 marks, with 36% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 30 percentage points, registering a record high since May 2019, while the net trust value stands at negative 13 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, livelihood and economic conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 25, negative 29 and negative 32 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points, registering a record high since 2011, while the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has also registered a record high since March 2019.
The five most popularly supported political groups are HKCTU, Civic Party, Democratic Party, HKASPDMC and FTU, attaining 41.3, 40.5, 40.3, 39.2 and 38.3 marks respectively; while LSD, DAB, Liberal Party, New People’s Party and People Power rank the 6th to 10th with 38.1, 37.4, 37.2, 35.6 and 35.4 marks respectively. In addition, ADPL and BPA obtain support ratings of 39.6 and 30.1 marks respectively, but they are dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. Compared to five months ago, the ratings of FTU and New People’s Party have increased significantly. Their ratings together with that of DAB and BPA have all registered record highs since April 2019. Meanwhile, the rating of HKCTU has also registered a record high since 2015. On the other hand, HKASPDMC re-enters the list again in 8 years, however, its rating has registered a new low since records began in 1992, while the rating of People Power has registered a record low since 2017.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 83.5, up by 1.9 points from early September.
