發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
李傲然 - 前油尖旺區議員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
2021年9月14日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於九月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.6分，與半個月前分別不大，但就創2019年6月初以來新高，有33%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負41個百分點，比半個月前上升7個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為37.5分，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.9分，民望淨值為負5個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為28.3分，創2019年6月初以來新高，民望淨值為負35個百分點，同創2019年4月以來新高。局長方面，十三位局長之中有十位的民望淨值錄得正數。對比兩個月前，九位局長的淨支持率上升，三人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，並創2018年5月以來新高。而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和徐英偉的支持率淨值則創其2020年5月上任以來的新高。調查的實效回應比率為44.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 6-10/9/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括500個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 44.2% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6+/-2.0 | +1.8 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4%[3] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 70% | 67% | 68% | 66% | 68% | 65+/-3% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -53% | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41+/-5% | +7% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | 589-668 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長李家超評分 | -- | -- | -- | 38.0 | 35.3 | 37.5+/-2.9 | +2.2 |
| 李家超出任政務司司長支持率 | -- | -- | -- | 32% | 29% | 28+/-4% | -1% |
| 李家超出任政務司司長反對率 | -- | -- | -- | 37% | 40% | 38+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -- | -- | -5% | -11% | -11+/-7% | -- |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3 | 41.9+/-2.5 | +0.6 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 29% | 24% | 25% | 32%[4] | 33% | 31+/-4% | -2% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 39%[4] | 42% | 43% | 32%[4] | 29% | 35+/-4% | +6%[4] |
| 支持率淨值 | -10%[4] | -18% | -18% | 1%[4] | 4% | -5+/-7% | -8% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7 | 28.3+/-2.4 | +0.6 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 61% | 57% | 61% | 53%[4] | 53% | 50+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -47% | -44% | -47% | -37%[4] | -39% | -35+/-6% | +4% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值排列[5]：
| 調查日期 | 8-12/3/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 533-710 | 614-647 | 606-626 | 604-631 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 47.6% | 55.5% | 46.4% | 44.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 24% | 29%[6] | 29% | 33+/-4% | +4% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 28% | 27% | 22%[6] | 18+/-3% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -4% | 2% | 7% | 14+/-6% | +7% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 25%[6] | 26% | 32%[6] | 32+/-4% | -- |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 36% | 37% | 30%[6] | 24+/-4% | -6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -11% | -12% | 3%[6] | 8+/-6% | +5% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 24% | 21% | 26%[6] | 27+/-4% | -- |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 28% | 25% | 20%[6] | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -4% | -5% | 6%[6] | 7+/-5% | +1% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 19% | 18% | 22%[6] | 22+/-3% | -- |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 19%[6] | 24%[6] | 18%[6] | 16+/-3% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 1% | -6% | 5%[6] | 7+/-5% | +2% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 25% | 26% | 33%[6] | 33+/-4% | -- |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 35% | 35% | 30% | 27+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -10% | -9% | 3%[6] | 6+/-6% | +3% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 16%[6] | 24%[6] | 26% | 29+/-4% | +3% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 40% | 35% | 29%[6] | 23+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -24%[6] | -11%[6] | -4% | 5+/-6% | +9%[6] |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 21% | 18% | 24%[6] | 22+/-3% | -1% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 23% | 25% | 16%[6] | 17+/-3% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -2% | -7% | 8%[6] | 5+/-5% | -3% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 25% | 24% | 32%[6] | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 42% | 39% | 32%[6] | 27+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -17% | -15% | 1%[6] | 3+/-6% | +2% |
| 鄧炳強出任保安局局長支持率 | -- | -- | 43% | 43+/-4% | -- |
| 鄧炳強出任保安局局長反對率 | -- | -- | 41% | 40+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -- | 2% | 2+/-7% | -- |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 21% | 22% | 26+/-4% | +4% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 29% | 30% | 26% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -8% | -9% | -4% | <1+/-6% | +5% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 22% | 19% | 28%[6] | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 37% | 41% | 30%[6] | 27+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -15% | -22% | -2%[6] | -2+/-6% | -1% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 23% | 24% | 28% | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 49% | 45% | 36%[6] | 38+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -26% | -21% | -8%[6] | -13+/-6% | -5% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 15% | 14% | 22%[6] | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 58% | 58% | 51%[6] | 48+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -43% | -44% | -29%[6] | -27+/-6% | +2% |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.6分，與半個月前分別不大，但就創2019年6月初以來新高，有33%受訪者給予她0分。其最新支持率為24%，反對率為65%，民望淨值為負41個百分點，比半個月前上升7個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為37.5分，支持率為28%，反對率為38%，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.9分，支持率為31%，反對率為35%，民望淨值為負5個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為28.3分，創2019年6月初以來新高，支持率為15%，反對率為50%，民望淨值為負35個百分點，同創2019年4月以來新高。
局長方面，十三位局長之中有十位的民望淨值錄得正數，排名由高至低分別是環境局局長黃錦星、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、創新及科技局局長薛永恒、財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、發展局局長黃偉綸、公務員事務局局長聶德權、保安局局長鄧炳強和民政事務局局長徐英偉。而排名第十一至第十三，民望淨值錄得負值的則有政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始和教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，九位局長的淨支持率上升，三人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，並創2018年5月以來新高。而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和徐英偉的支持率淨值則創其2020年5月上任以來的新高。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，鄧炳強、邱騰華、黃錦星、羅致光、陳茂波、聶德權、陳帆、李家超、徐英偉、曾國衞、陳肇始及楊潤雄屬於「表現一般」，薛永恒、黃偉綸及許正宇屬於「表現不彰」，林鄭月娥及鄭若驊屬於「表現失敗」，沒有官員屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 保安局局長鄧炳強（43%）
商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（33%） 環境局局長黃錦星（33%） 勞工及福利局局長羅致光（32%） 財政司司長陳茂波（31%） 公務員事務局局長聶德權（30%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（29%） 政務司司長李家超（28%） 民政事務局局長徐英偉（26%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（25%） 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（25%） 教育局局長楊潤雄（21%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[7]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（27%，46%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（22%，40%） 財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（22%，38%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（65%）
律政司司長鄭若驊（50%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[7]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
[7]如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為30/6-8/7/2021，而今次調查日期則為6-10/9/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 7/9/21 | 政府恢復「回港易」計劃，並將推出「來港易」計劃 |
| 6/9/21 | 中央政府公布前海發展方案 |
| 31/8/21 | 政府提出修例，放寬引入非本地培訓醫生條件 |
| 29/8/21 | 政府或推行全民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 26/8/21 | 立法會通過垃圾徵費條例草案 |
| 24/8/21 | 政府提出進一步修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止不利國家安全電影上映 |
| 23/8/21 | 中央政府官員向港府官員講解「十四五規劃」 |
| 18/8/21 | 警方以涉嫌宣揚恐怖主義拘捕4名港大學生會成員 |
| 17/8/21 | 機場貴賓室員工確診，政府收緊防疫措施 |
| 15/8/21 | 民間人權陣線宣布解散 |
| 14/8/21 | 返港外傭檢疫七日後確診 |
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 6/8/21 | 選舉委員會界別分組選舉提名期開始 |
| 4/8/21 | 政府收緊「回港易」計劃以防澳門Delta變種病毒蔓延香港 |
| 2/8/21 | 政府宣布四類人士如不打針須自費定期檢測 |
| 1/8/21 | 政府派發首期2,000元電子消費券 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 30/7/21 | 唐英傑就煽動分裂國家罪及恐怖活動罪被判囚9年 |
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 11/7/21 | 香港新增1宗新冠肺炎個案，數萬機場員工須強制檢測 |
| 8/7/21 | 柏傲莊III兩幢樓宇混凝土強度不達標，將拆卸重建 |
| 6/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌策劃恐怖襲擊拘捕九人 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 4/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人 |
| 3/7/21 | 政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.6分，與半個月前分別不大，但就創2019年6月初以來新高，有33%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負41個百分點，比半個月前上升7個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為37.5分，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.9分，民望淨值為負5個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為28.3分，創2019年6月初以來新高，民望淨值為負35個百分點，同創2019年4月以來新高。
局長方面，十三位局長之中有十位的民望淨值錄得正數。對比兩個月前，九位局長的淨支持率上升，三人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳帆的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，並創2018年5月以來新高。而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和徐英偉的支持率淨值則創其2020年5月上任以來的新高。
Sep 14, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li - Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPOR
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early September. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 44.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 6-10/9/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 44.2% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | 1,003 | 1,000 | -- |
| Response rate | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | 52.9% | 44.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35.6+/-2.0 | +1.8 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
17% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4%[3] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
70% | 67% | 68% | 66% | 68% | 65+/-3% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -47% | -48% | -46% | -48% | -41+/-5% | +7% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | 589-668 | -- |
| Response rate | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | 38.0 | 35.3 | 37.5+/-2.9 | +2.2 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | 32% | 29% | 28+/-4% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | 37% | 40% | 38+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -- | -- | -5% | -11% | -11+/-7% | -- |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3 | 41.9+/-2.5 | +0.6 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 29% | 24% | 25% | 32%[4] | 33% | 31+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 39%[4] | 42% | 43% | 32%[4] | 29% | 35+/-4% | +6%[4] |
| Net approval rate | -10%[4] | -18% | -18% | 1%[4] | 4% | -5+/-7% | -8% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7 | 28.3+/-2.4 | +0.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 61% | 57% | 61% | 53%[4] | 53% | 50+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -47% | -44% | -47% | -37%[4] | -39% | -35+/-6% | +4% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates[5] are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 8-12/3/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 6-10/9/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 533-710 | 614-647 | 606-626 | 604-631 | -- |
| Response rate | 47.6% | 55.5% | 46.4% | 44.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 24% | 29%[6] | 29% | 33+/-4% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 28% | 27% | 22%[6] | 18+/-3% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -4% | 2% | 7% | 14+/-6% | +7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 25%[6] | 26% | 32%[6] | 32+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 36% | 37% | 30%[6] | 24+/-4% | -6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -12% | 3%[6] | 8+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 24% | 21% | 26%[6] | 27+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 28% | 25% | 20%[6] | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -4% | -5% | 6%[6] | 7+/-5% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 19% | 18% | 22%[6] | 22+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 19%[6] | 24%[6] | 18%[6] | 16+/-3% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | 1% | -6% | 5%[6] | 7+/-5% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 25% | 26% | 33%[6] | 33+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 35% | 35% | 30% | 27+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -10% | -9% | 3%[6] | 6+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 16%[6] | 24%[6] | 26% | 29+/-4% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 40% | 35% | 29%[6] | 23+/-3% | -6%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -24%[6] | -11%[6] | -4% | 5+/-6% | +9%[6] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 21% | 18% | 24%[6] | 22+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 23% | 25% | 16%[6] | 17+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -7% | 8%[6] | 5+/-5% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 25% | 24% | 32%[6] | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 42% | 39% | 32%[6] | 27+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -17% | -15% | 1%[6] | 3+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | -- | -- | 43% | 43+/-4% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang | -- | -- | 41% | 40+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -- | 2% | 2+/-7% | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 21% | 21% | 22% | 26+/-4% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 29% | 30% | 26% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -8% | -9% | -4% | <1+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 22% | 19% | 28%[6] | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 37% | 41% | 30%[6] | 27+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -15% | -22% | -2%[6] | -2+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 23% | 24% | 28% | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 49% | 45% | 36%[6] | 38+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -26% | -21% | -8%[6] | -13+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 15% | 14% | 22%[6] | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 58% | 58% | 51%[6] | 48+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -43% | -44% | -29%[6] | -27+/-6% | +2% |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her latest approval rate is 24%, disapproval rate 65%, giving a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His approval rate is 28%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His approval rate is 31%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate is 15%, disapproval rate 50%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security Chris Tang and Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui. The 11th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan, John Lee, Caspar Tsui, Erick Tsang, Sophia Chan and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Secretary for Security Chris Tang (43%)
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (33%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%) Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (32%) FS Paul Chan (31%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (30%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (29%) CS John Lee (28%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (26%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (25%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (25%) Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (21%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[7]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (27%, 46%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong (22%, 40%) Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (22%, 38%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| CE Carrie Lam (65%)
SJ Teresa Cheng (50%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[7] |
| Nil |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
| 6/9/21 | The Central Government releases the development plan of Qianhai. |
| 31/8/21 | The government proposes amendments to relax requirements for non-locally trained doctors to practise in Hong Kong. |
| 29/8/21 | The government may launch a universal COVID-19 vaccination programme for all residents. |
| 26/8/21 | The Legislative Council passes waste-charging bill. |
| 24/8/21 | The government further amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that are contrary to the interests of national security. |
| 23/8/21 | Officials from the Central Government explain the 14th five-year plan to Hong Kong government officials. |
| 18/8/21 | Police arrests four members of the HKU Students’ Union who allegedly advocated terrorism. |
| 17/8/21 | A worker at airport lounge tests positive, prompting the government to tighten anti-epidemic measures. |
| 15/8/21 | Civil Human Rights Front announces its disbandment. |
| 14/8/21 | A foreign domestic helper tests positive after finishing 7-day quarantine. |
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 6/8/21 | The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins. |
| 4/8/21 | The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau. |
| 2/8/21 | The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 11/7/21 | Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff. |
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.6 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has registered a record high since early June 2019, with 33% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 41 percentage points, which has increased by 7 percentage points compared to half a month ago, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 37.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.9 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.3 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 35 percentage points, also registered a record high since April 2019.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, 10 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 9 Directors have gone up, 3 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged, but only that of Frank Chan has changed beyond sampling error, also registering a record high since May 2018. Meanwhile, those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Caspar Tsui have registered record highs since they took office in May 2020.
