2021年8月17日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
講者:
鍾劍華 - 香港民意研究所副行政總裁
李傲然 - 前油尖旺區議員
戴捷輝 - 香港民意研究所經理 (數據科學)
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於八月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,002名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.1分，與半個月前分別不大，但就再創2019年6月初以來新高，有35%受訪者給予她0分。民望淨值為負46個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為35.3分，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.3分，民望淨值為正4個百分點，再創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為27.7分，民望淨值為負39個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為49.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 9-12/8/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,002 (包括503個固網及499個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 49.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1+/-2.1 | +0.4 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 68% | 70% | 70% | 67% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -50% | -53% | -53% | -47% | -48% | -46+/-5% | +2% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 521-548 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長李家超評分 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 38.0 | 35.3+/-3.1 | -2.8 |
| 李家超出任政務司司長支持率 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32% | 29+/-4% | -3% |
| 李家超出任政務司司長反對率 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 37% | 40+/-4% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -5% | -11+/-7% | -6% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 34.7 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3+/-2.5 | -2.2 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 26% | 29% | 24% | 25% | 32%[4] | 33+/-4% | +1% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 47% | 39%[4] | 42% | 43% | 32%[4] | 29+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -10%[4] | -18% | -18% | 1%[4] | 4+/-7% | +3% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7+/-2.5 | -0.4 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14+/-3% | -2% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 56% | 61% | 57% | 61% | 53%[4] | 53+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -42% | -47% | -44% | -47% | -37%[4] | -39+/-6% | -2% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.1分，與半個月前分別不大，但就再創2019年6月初以來新高，有35%受訪者給予她0分。其最新支持率為20%，反對率為66%，民望淨值為負46個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為35.3分，支持率為29%，反對率為40%，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.3分，支持率為33%，反對率為29%，民望淨值為正4個百分點，再創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為27.7分，支持率為14%，反對率為53%，民望淨值為負39個百分點。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為30/6-8/7/2021，而今次調查日期則為9-12/8/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 10/8/21 | 教協宣布即將解散 |
| 8/8/21 | 李慧詩奪得奧運女子爭先賽銅牌，港隊共奪得一金兩銀三銅 |
| 6/8/21 | 選舉委員會界別分組選舉提名期開始 |
| 4/8/21 | 政府收緊「回港易」計劃以防澳門Delta變種病毒蔓延香港 |
| 2/8/21 | 政府宣布四類人士如不打針須自費定期檢測 |
| 1/8/21 | 政府派發首期2,000元電子消費券 |
| 31/7/21 | 教育局全面終止與教協的工作關係 |
| 30/7/21 | 唐英傑就煽動分裂國家罪及恐怖活動罪被判囚9年 |
| 26/7/21 | 張家朗奪得奧運男子花劍個人賽金牌 |
| 16/7/21 | 夏寶龍提出對治港者的五項要求 |
| 11/7/21 | 香港新增1宗新冠肺炎個案，數萬機場員工須強制檢測 |
| 8/7/21 | 柏傲莊III兩幢樓宇混凝土強度不達標，將拆卸重建 |
| 6/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌策劃恐怖襲擊拘捕九人 |
| 4/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人 |
| 3/7/21 | 政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為35.1分，與半個月前分別不大，但就再創2019年6月初以來新高，有35%受訪者給予她0分。民望淨值為負46個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長李家超支持度評分為35.3分，民望淨值為負11個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為41.3分，民望淨值為正4個百分點，再創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為27.7分，民望淨值為負39個百分點。
Aug 17, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Speakers:
Kim-Wah Chung - Deputy CEO, HKPORI
Owan Li - Former Yau Tsim Mong District Councillor
Edward Tai - Manager (Data Science), HKPORI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His net popularity stands at positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 9-12/8/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,002 (including 503 landline and 499 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 49.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,002 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | 49.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7 | 35.1+/-2.1 | +0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
18% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
68% | 70% | 70% | 67% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -50% | -53% | -53% | -47% | -48% | -46+/-5% | +2% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 521-548 | 556-639 | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | -- |
| Response rate | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | -- | 38.0 | 35.3+/-3.1 | -2.8 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32% | 29+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | -- | -- | -- | -- | 37% | 40+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -- | -- | -- | -5% | -11+/-7% | -6% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 34.7 | 35.8 | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[4] | 41.3+/-2.5 | -2.2 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 26% | 29% | 24% | 25% | 32%[4] | 33+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 47% | 39%[4] | 42% | 43% | 32%[4] | 29+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -10%[4] | -18% | -18% | 1%[4] | 4+/-7% | +3% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 23.9 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[4] | 27.7+/-2.5 | -0.4 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 56% | 61% | 57% | 61% | 53%[4] | 53+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -47% | -44% | -47% | -37%[4] | -39+/-6% | -2% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. These popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His approval rate is 29%, disapproval rate 40%, giving a net popularity of negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His approval rate is 33%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her approval rate is 14%, disapproval rate 53%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 9 to 12 August, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 10/8/21 | The Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union announces it will be dissolved. |
| 8/8/21 | Sarah Lee wins bronze in the women’s cycling sprint in the Olympics, meaning one gold, two silver and three bronze medals for Hong Kong. |
| 6/8/21 | The nomination period for the Election Committee Subsector Elections begins. |
| 4/8/21 | The government tightens requirements for the Return2hk scheme to prevent spread of the Delta variant from Macau. |
| 2/8/21 | The government requires four targeted groups to undergo regular testing at their own expense if they do not get vaccinated. |
| 1/8/21 | The government delivers the first batch of electronic consumption vouchers worth $2,000. |
| 31/7/21 | The Education Bureau terminates all working relations with Hong Kong Professional Teachers’ Union. |
| 30/7/21 | Tong Ying-kit is jailed for 9 years for inciting secession and terrorism. |
| 26/7/21 | Edgar Cheung wins gold in the men’s foil individual competition in the Olympics. |
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 11/7/21 | Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff. |
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.1 marks. It has not changed much from half a month ago, but has again registered a record high since early June 2019, with 35% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 46 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 35.3 marks. His net popularity is negative 11 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 41.3 marks. His net popularity stands at positive 4 percentage points, registering another record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 27.7 marks. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points.
