2021年7月20日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
民研計劃發放五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月底至七月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,003名香港居民。調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.94、4.76、4.56、4.48和4.04分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。調查的實效回應比率為46.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.28。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 30/6-8/7/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,003 (包括503個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 46.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-0.28 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
- 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
- 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/2021 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 534-654 | 597-605 | 605-610 | 602-607 | 595-606 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 繁榮指標 | 4.26[3] | 4.73[3] | 4.41[3] | 4.83[3] | 4.94+/-0.20 | +0.11 |
| 安定指標 | 4.26[3] | 4.76[3] | 4.42[3] | 4.80[3] | 4.76+/-0.23 | -0.04 |
| 自由指標 | 4.70 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.77 | 4.56+/-0.28 | -0.21 |
| 法治指標 | 3.92[3] | 4.40[3] | 4.01[3] | 4.39[3] | 4.48+/-0.26 | +0.10 |
| 民主指標 | 3.59[3] | 3.68 | 3.56 | 3.82 | 4.04+/-0.27 | +0.22 |
- 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.94、4.76、4.56、4.48和4.04分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為7-10/6/2021，而今次調查日期則為30/6-8/7/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 8/7/21 | 柏傲莊III兩幢樓宇混凝土強度不達標，將拆卸重建 |
| 6/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌策劃恐怖襲擊拘捕九人 |
| 5/7/21 | 多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇 |
| 4/7/21 | 警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人 |
| 4/7/21 | 電子消費券計劃開始接受網上登記 |
| 3/7/21 | 政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」 |
| 2/7/21 | 一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡 |
| 1/7/21 | 習近平於中國共產黨成立100周年大會發表講話 |
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 24/6/21 | 香港新增7宗新冠肺炎個案，均涉變種病毒 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 22/6/21 | 蘋果日報多個版面停止更新 |
| 21/6/21 | 香港連續14日沒有本地確診個案，政府將放寬防疫措施 |
| 19/6/21 | 壹傳媒兩高層被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 14/6/21 | G7峰會閉幕發表聯合公報多次提及中國 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低是「繁榮」、「安定」、「自由」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.94、4.76、4.56、4.48和4.04分。全部指標相比一個月前均沒有顯著變化。
Jul 20, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late June to early July. Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.94, 4.76, 4.56, 4.48 and 4.04 respectively. All indicators have not changed significantly compared with a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 46.4%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.28 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 30/6-8/7/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 46.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.28 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 8-12/3/21 | 7-9/4/21 | 3-7/5/2021 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 534-654 | 597-605 | 605-610 | 602-607 | 595-606 | -- |
| Response rate | 47.6% | 50.1% | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.26[3] | 4.73[3] | 4.41[3] | 4.83[3] | 4.94+/-0.20 | +0.11 |
| Degree of stability | 4.26[3] | 4.76[3] | 4.42[3] | 4.80[3] | 4.76+/-0.23 | -0.04 |
| Degree of freedom | 4.70 | 4.77 | 4.56 | 4.77 | 4.56+/-0.28 | -0.21 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 3.92[3] | 4.40[3] | 4.01[3] | 4.39[3] | 4.48+/-0.26 | +0.10 |
| Degree of democracy | 3.59[3] | 3.68 | 3.56 | 3.82 | 4.04+/-0.27 | +0.22 |
- The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.94, 4.76, 4.56, 4.48 and 4.04 respectively. All indicators have not changed significantly compared with a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 10 June, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 4/7/21 | Consumption voucher scheme opens for registration. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 1/7/21 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 24/6/21 | Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 22/6/21 | Apple Daily stops updating several pages. |
| 21/6/21 | Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures. |
| 19/6/21 | Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.94, 4.76, 4.56, 4.48 and 4.04 respectively. All indicators have not changed significantly compared with a month ago.
