民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字 (2021-07-13)

新聞公報

Press Release

2021年7月13日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

結果簡報

發佈會回顧

民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字

特別宣佈

香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。

公報簡要

民研計劃於六月底至七月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,003名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.0分，比半個月前顯著上升4.2分，創2019年6月初以來新高，有37%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負47個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，新上任的政務司司長李家超支持度評分為38.0分，民望淨值為負5個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分較一個月前大幅上升8.0分至43.5，創2018年2月以來新高，民望淨值亦較一個月前大幅上升19個百分點至正1，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分同樣大幅上升4.0分至28.1，創2019年6月初以來新高，民望淨值亦大幅上升10個百分點至負37，創2019年4月以來新高。局長方面，十三位局長之中有八位的民望淨值錄得正數。對比兩個月前，全部局長的支持率淨值均告上升，當中只有黃錦星、陳帆和徐英偉的支持率淨值變化不超過抽樣誤差。陳帆的支持率淨值創2018年7月以來新高，黃偉綸的支持率淨值創2019年6月初以來新高，而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和曾國衞的支持率淨值則創其於2020年5月上任以來新高。調查的實效回應比率為46.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.1。

樣本資料

調查日期	：	30/6-8/7/2021
調查方法	：	由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象	：	18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目^[1]	：	1,003 (包括503個固網及500個手機樣本)
實效回應比率	：	46.4%
抽樣誤差^[2]	：	在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.1
加權方法	：	按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。

[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。

[2]
此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：

調查日期	19-22/4/21	3-7/5/21	17-21/5/21	7-10/6/21	21-25/6/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*最新變化*
樣本數目	1,004	1,013	1,004	1,008	1,014	*1,003*	--
回應比率	54.5%	55.5%	52.5%	55.1%	49.3%	*46.4%*	--
最新結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	*結果及* 誤差	--
特首林鄭月娥評分	32.0	30.4	30.8	30.3	29.8	*34.0+/-2.1*	*+4.2^[3]*
林鄭月娥出任特首支持率	18%	17%	18%	16%	17%	*20+/-3%*	*+3%*
林鄭月娥出任特首反對率	68%	71%	68%	70%	70%	*67+/-3%*	*-3%*
支持率淨值	-50%	-54%	-50%	-53%	-53%	*-47+/-5%*	*+6%*

[3]
該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：

調查日期	24/2/21 ^[4]	8-12/3/21	7-9/4/21	3-7/5/21	7-10/6/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*最新變化*
樣本數目	859	521-548	556-639	636-700	570-692	*590-647*	--
回應比率	61.0%	47.6%	50.1%	55.5%	55.1%	*46.4%*	--
最新結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	結果	*結果及誤差*	--
政務司司長李家超評分	--	--	--	--	--	*38.0+/-3.1*	--
李家超出任政務司司長支持率	--	--	--	--	--	*32+/-4%*	--
李家超出任政務司司長反對率	--	--	--	--	--	*37+/-4%*	--
支持率淨值	--	--	--	--	--	*-5+/-7%*	--
財政司司長陳茂波評分	36.2	34.7	35.8	35.1	35.4	*43.5+/-2.5*	*+8.0^[5]*
陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率	27%	26%	29%	24%	25%	*32+/-4%*	*+7%^[5]*
陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率	51%^[5]	47%	39%^[5]	42%	43%	*32+/-4%*	*-11%^[5]*
支持率淨值	-24%	-21%	-10%^[5]	-18%	-18%	*1+/-7%*	*+19%^[5]*
律政司司長鄭若驊評分	--	23.9	22.7	25.0	24.2	*28.1+/-2.4*	*+4.0^[5]*
鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率	--	14%	14%	14%	14%	*16+/-3%*	*+2%*
鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率	--	56%	61%	57%	61%	*53+/-4%*	*-8%^[5]*
支持率淨值	--	-42%	-47%	-44%	-47%	*-37+/-6%*	*+10%^[5]*

[4] 調查為財政預算案即時調查，只問及財政司司長評分及支持率。

[5]
該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值排列^[6]：

調查日期	4-8/1/21	8-12/3/21	3-7/5/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*最新變化*
樣本數目	603-628	533-710	614-647	*606-626*	--
回應比率	58.5%	47.6%	55.5%	*46.4%*	--
最新結果	結果	結果	結果	*結果及誤差*	--
黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率	21%	21%	18%	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[7]*
黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率	26%	23%	25%	*16+/-3%*	*-9%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-5%	-2%	-7%	*8+/-5%*	*+15%^[7]*
黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率	25%	24%	29%^[7]	*29+/-4%*	--
黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率	28%	28%	27%	*22+/-3%*	*-5%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-3%	-4%	2%	*7+/-6%*	*+5%*
薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率	23%	24%	21%	*26+/-4%*	*+6%^[7]*
薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率	33%^[7]	28%	25%	*20+/-3%*	*-5%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-10%	-4%	-5%	*6+/-6%*	*+10%^[7]*
許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率	20%	19%	18%	*22+/-3%*	*+5%^[7]*
許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率	26%	19%^[7]	24%^[7]	*18+/-3%*	*-6%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-7%	1%	-6%	*5+/-5%*	*+11%^[7]*
邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率	25%	25%	26%	*33+/-4%*	*+7%^[7]*
邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率	39%	35%	35%	*30+/-4%*	*-5%*
支持率淨值	-14%	-10%	-9%	*3+/-6%*	*+12%^[7]*
羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率	31%	25%^[7]	26%	*32+/-4%*	*+7%^[7]*
羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率	37%	36%	37%	*30+/-4%*	*-8%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-6%	-11%	-12%	*3+/-6%*	*+14%^[7]*
鄧炳強出任保安局局長支持率	--	--	--	*43+/-4%*	--
鄧炳強出任保安局局長反對率	--	--	--	*41+/-4%*	--
支持率淨值	--	--	--	*2+/-7%*	--
聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率	23%	25%	24%	*32+/-4%*	*+9%^[7]*
聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率	44%	42%	39%	*32+/-4%*	*-7%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-21%	-17%	-15%	*1+/-7%*	*+16%^[7]*
曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率	21%	22%	19%	*28+/-4%*	*+9%^[7]*
曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率	40%	37%	41%	*30+/-4%*	*-11%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-19%	-15%	-22%	*-2+/-6%*	*+21%^[7]*
陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率	24%	16%^[7]	24%^[7]	*26+/-4%*	*+2%*
陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率	39%	40%	35%	*29+/-4%*	*-6%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-15%	-24%^[7]	-11%^[7]	*-4+/-6%*	*+8%*
徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率	19%	21%	21%	*22+/-3%*	*+1%*
徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率	31%	29%	30%	*26+/-4%*	*-3%*
支持率淨值	-13%	-8%	-9%	*-4+/-6%*	*+4%*
陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率	25%^[7]	23%	24%	*28+/-4%*	*+4%*
陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率	46%^[7]	49%	45%	*36+/-4%*	*-8%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-20%^[7]	-26%	-21%	*-8+/-6%*	*+13%^[7]*
楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率	17%	15%	14%	*22+/-3%*	*+8%^[7]*
楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率	60%	58%	58%	*51+/-4%*	*-7%^[7]*
支持率淨值	-42%	-43%	-44%	*-29+/-7%*	*+15%^[7]*

[6] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。

[7]
該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.0分，比半個月前顯著上升4.2分，創2019年6月初以來新高，有37%受訪者給予她0分。其最新支持率為20%，反對率為67%，民望淨值為負47個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。

司長方面，新上任的政務司司長李家超支持度評分為38.0分，支持率為32%，反對率為37%，民望淨值為負5個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分較一個月前大幅上升8.0分至43.5，創2018年2月以來新高，支持率和反對率同為32%，民望淨值亦較一個月前大幅上升19個百分點至正1，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分同樣大幅上升4.0分至28.1，創2019年6月初以來新高，支持率為16%，反對率為53%，民望淨值亦大幅上升10個百分點至負37，創2019年4月以來新高。

局長方面，十三位局長之中有八位的民望淨值錄得正數，排名由高至低分別是發展局局長黃偉綸、環境局局長黃錦星、創新及科技局局長薛永恒、財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、保安局局長鄧炳強和公務員事務局局長聶德權。而排名第九至第十三，民望淨值錄得負值的則有政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、民政事務局局長徐英偉、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始和教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，全部局長的支持率淨值均告上升，當中只有黃錦星、陳帆和徐英偉的支持率淨值變化不超過抽樣誤差。陳帆的支持率淨值創2018年7月以來新高，黃偉綸的支持率淨值創2019年6月初以來新高，而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和曾國衞的支持率淨值則創其於2020年5月上任以來新高。

根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，鄧炳強、邱騰華、陳茂波、聶德權、羅致光、李家超、黃錦星、曾國衞、陳肇始及陳帆屬於「表現一般」，薛永恒、黃偉綸、許正宇及徐英偉屬於「表現不彰」，鄭若驊及楊潤雄屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥屬於「表現拙劣」。

以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：

「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名^[8]，即括弧內數字

沒有官員

「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名^[8]，即括弧內數字

沒有官員

「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名^[8]，即括弧內數字

保安局局長鄧炳強（43%）
商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（33%）
財政司司長陳茂波（32%）
公務員事務局局長聶德權（32%）
勞工及福利局局長羅致光（32%）
政務司司長李家超（32%）
環境局局長黃錦星（29%）
政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（28%）
食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（28%）
運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（26%）

「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名^[8]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率

創新及科技局局長薛永恒（26%，47%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（24%，40%）
財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（22%，40%）
民政事務局局長徐英偉（22%，48%）

「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名^[8]，即括弧內數字

律政司司長鄭若驊（53%）
教育局局長楊潤雄（51%）

「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名^[8]，即括弧內數字

特首林鄭月娥（67%）

[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。

民意日誌

民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。

由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為3-7/5/2021，而今次調查日期則為30/6-8/7/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：

8/7/21	柏傲莊III兩幢樓宇混凝土強度不達標，將拆卸重建
6/7/21	警方以涉嫌策劃恐怖襲擊拘捕九人
5/7/21	多名中港官員出席國安法法律論壇
4/7/21	警方以涉嫌網上煽惑暴力拘捕兩人
4/7/21	電子消費券計劃開始接受網上登記
3/7/21	政府稱七一刺警案為「孤狼式恐怖襲擊」
2/7/21	一名男子於銅鑼灣刺警後自殺身亡
1/7/21	習近平於中國共產黨成立100周年大會發表講話
25/6/21	李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長
24/6/21	香港新增7宗新冠肺炎個案，均涉變種病毒
23/6/21	蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份
21/6/21	香港連續14日沒有本地確診個案，政府將放寬防疫措施
19/6/21	壹傳媒兩高層被拒保釋，須還押候訊
17/6/21	警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產
12/6/21	駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵
11/6/21	政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映
10/6/21	人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》
5/6/21	香港出現源頭不明新冠肺炎變種病毒個案
4/6/21	警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會
31/5/21	政府擬限制未接種疫苗者進入各類場所
30/5/21	政府和商界推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗
29/5/21	專家指第四波疫情已經結束
28/5/21	十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄
27/5/21	立法會通過修改選舉制度
25/5/21	政府宣布將為持雙程證者和難民接種新冠疫苗
21/5/21	部分大學和企業推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗
14/5/21	政府引用國安法凍結黎智英私人財產
11/5/21	政府購買東京奧運轉播權予五間電視台
8/5/21	衞生署控告兩名變種病毒確診者隱瞞行蹤
7/5/21	政府宣布接種疫苗可以縮短檢疫期

數據分析

調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為34.0分，比半個月前顯著上升4.2分，創2019年6月初以來新高，有37%受訪者給予她0分，民望淨值為負47個百分點，與半個月前分別不大。

司長方面，新上任的政務司司長李家超支持度評分為38.0分，民望淨值為負5個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分較一個月前大幅上升8.0分至43.5，創2018年2月以來新高，民望淨值亦較一個月前大幅上升19個百分點至正1，創2017年2月以來新高。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分同樣大幅上升4.0分至28.1，創2019年6月初以來新高，民望淨值亦大幅上升10個百分點至負37，創2019年4月以來新高。

局長方面，十三位局長之中有八位的民望淨值錄得正數。對比兩個月前，全部局長的支持率淨值均告上升，當中只有黃錦星、陳帆和徐英偉的支持率淨值變化不超過抽樣誤差。陳帆的支持率淨值創2018年7月以來新高，黃偉綸的支持率淨值創2019年6月初以來新高，而薛永恒、許正宇、聶德權和曾國衞的支持率淨值則創其於2020年5月上任以來新高。

Jul 13, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Invitation for next PC

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularities of CE and principal officials

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,003 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late June to early July. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020. The effective response rate of the survey is 46.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	30/6-8/7/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,003 (including 503 landline and 500 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	46.4%
Sampling error^[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.1 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	19-22/4/21	3-7/5/21	17-21/5/21	7-10/6/21	21-25/6/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,004	1,013	1,004	1,008	1,014	*1,003*	--
Response rate	54.5%	55.5%	52.5%	55.1%	49.3%	*46.4%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	32.0	30.4	30.8	30.3	29.8	*34.0+/-2.1*	*+4.2^[3]*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	18%	17%	18%	16%	17%	*20+/-3%*	*+3%*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	68%	71%	68%	70%	70%	*67+/-3%*	*-3%*
Net approval rate	-50%	-54%	-50%	-53%	-53%	*-47+/-5%*	*+6%*

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	24/2/21 ^[4]	8-12/3/21	7-9/4/21	3-7/5/21	7-10/6/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	859	521-548	556-639	636-700	570-692	*590-647*	--
Response rate	61.0%	47.6%	50.1%	55.5%	55.1%	*46.4%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CS John Lee	--	--	--	--	--	*38.0+/-3.1*	--
Vote of confidence in CS John Lee	--	--	--	--	--	*32+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee	--	--	--	--	--	*37+/-4%*	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	--	--	*-5+/-7%*	--
Rating of FS Paul Chan	36.2	34.7	35.8	35.1	35.4	*43.5+/-2.5*	*+8.0^[5]*
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	27%	26%	29%	24%	25%	*32+/-4%*	*+7%^[5]*
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	51%^[5]	47%	39%^[5]	42%	43%	*32+/-4%*	*-11%^[5]*
Net approval rate	-24%	-21%	-10%^[5]	-18%	-18%	*1+/-7%*	*+19%^[5]*
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	--	23.9	22.7	25.0	24.2	*28.1+/-2.4*	*+4.0^[5]*
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	--	14%	14%	14%	14%	*16+/-3%*	*+2%*
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	--	56%	61%	57%	61%	*53+/-4%*	*-8%^[5]*
Net approval rate	--	-42%	-47%	-44%	-47%	*-37+/-6%*	*+10%^[5]*

[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates^[6] are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-8/1/21	8-12/3/21	3-7/5/21	*30/6-8/7/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	603-628	533-710	614-647	*606-626*	--
Response rate	58.5%	47.6%	55.5%	*46.4%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	21%	21%	18%	*24+/-3%*	*+5%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	26%	23%	25%	*16+/-3%*	*-9%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-5%	-2%	-7%	*8+/-5%*	*+15%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	25%	24%	29%^[7]	*29+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	28%	28%	27%	*22+/-3%*	*-5%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-3%	-4%	2%	*7+/-6%*	*+5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	23%	24%	21%	*26+/-4%*	*+6%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit	33%^[7]	28%	25%	*20+/-3%*	*-5%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-10%	-4%	-5%	*6+/-6%*	*+10%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	20%	19%	18%	*22+/-3%*	*+5%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui	26%	19%^[7]	24%^[7]	*18+/-3%*	*-6%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-7%	1%	-6%	*5+/-5%*	*+11%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	25%	25%	26%	*33+/-4%*	*+7%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	39%	35%	35%	*30+/-4%*	*-5%*
Net approval rate	-14%	-10%	-9%	*3+/-6%*	*+12%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	31%	25%^[7]	26%	*32+/-4%*	*+7%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	37%	36%	37%	*30+/-4%*	*-8%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-6%	-11%	-12%	*3+/-6%*	*+14%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang	--	--	--	*43+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Chris Tang	--	--	--	*41+/-4%*	--
Net approval rate	--	--	--	*2+/-7%*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	23%	25%	24%	*32+/-4%*	*+9%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip	44%	42%	39%	*32+/-4%*	*-7%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-21%	-17%	-15%	*1+/-7%*	*+16%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	21%	22%	19%	*28+/-4%*	*+9%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang	40%	37%	41%	*30+/-4%*	*-11%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-19%	-15%	-22%	*-2+/-6%*	*+21%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	24%	16%^[7]	24%^[7]	*26+/-4%*	*+2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	39%	40%	35%	*29+/-4%*	*-6%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-15%	-24%^[7]	-11%^[7]	*-4+/-6%*	*+8%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	19%	21%	21%	*22+/-3%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui	31%	29%	30%	*26+/-4%*	*-3%*
Net approval rate	-13%	-8%	-9%	*-4+/-6%*	*+4%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	25%^[7]	23%	24%	*28+/-4%*	*+4%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	46%^[7]	49%	45%	*36+/-4%*	*-8%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-20%^[7]	-26%	-21%	*-8+/-6%*	*+13%^[7]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	17%	15%	14%	*22+/-3%*	*+8%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	60%	58%	58%	*51+/-4%*	*-7%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-42%	-43%	-44%	*-29+/-7%*	*+15%^[7]*

[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points. These popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His approval rate and disapproval rate are both at 32%, thus his net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 53%, thus her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates, ranked from high to low are Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Security Chris Tang and Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip. The 9th to 13th positions who have got negative net approval rates go to Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Chris Tang, Edward Yau, Paul Chan, Patrick Nip, Law Chi-kwong, John Lee, Wong Kam-sing, Erick Tsang, Sophia Chan and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Alfred Sit, Michael Wong, Christopher Hui and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng and Kevin Yeung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Nil

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Nil

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

Secretary for Security Chris Tang (43%)
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (33%)
FS Paul Chan (32%)
Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (32%)
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (32%)
CS John Lee (32%)
Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (29%)
Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (28%)
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (28%)
Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (26%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates ^[8]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (26%, 47%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong (24%, 40%)
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (22%, 40%)
Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (22%, 48%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

SJ Teresa Cheng (53%)
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[8]

CE Carrie Lam (67%)

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 30 June to 8 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/7/21	Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement.
6/7/21	Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks.
5/7/21	Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law.
4/7/21	Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online.
4/7/21	Consumption voucher scheme opens for registration.
3/7/21	The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”.
2/7/21	A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay.
1/7/21	Xi Jinping delivers a speech at Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary ceremony.
25/6/21	John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
24/6/21	Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant.
23/6/21	Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.
21/6/21	Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures.
19/6/21	Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody.
17/6/21	Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.
12/6/21	Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
11/6/21	The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.
10/6/21	NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
5/6/21	Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
4/6/21	Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
31/5/21	The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.
30/5/21	The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
29/5/21	Expert says the fourth wave of infections has ended.
28/5/21	10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21	The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/5/21	The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.
21/5/21	Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
14/5/21	The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.
11/5/21	The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations.
8/5/21	The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts.
7/5/21	The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.0 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared to half a month ago, as well as a record high since early June 2019, with 37% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 47 percentage points, which has not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of the newly appointed CS John Lee is 38.0 marks. His net popularity is negative 5 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has significantly increased by 8.0 points from a month ago to 43.5, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity has also significantly increased by 19 percentage points to positive 1, registering a record high since February 2017. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has significantly increased by 4.0 points to 28.1 marks, registering a record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity has also significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 37, registering a record high since April 2019.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, 8 out of 13 have got positive net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of all Directors have gone up. Only those of Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui have not changed beyond sampling errors. That of Frank Chan has registered a record high since July 2018, that of Michael Wong has registered a record high since early June 2019, while those of Alfred Sit, Christopher Hui, Patrick Nip and Erick Tsang have registered record highs since they were appointed in May 2020.

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