2021年7月6日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放社會現況評價
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,014名香港居民。調查顯示，市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，當中民生狀況的滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升8個百分點。以三選一的方式提問，分別有44%和28%被訪市民表示最關心民生和政治問題，而表示最關心經濟問題的，則佔23%。與半年前比較，表示最關心民生問題的比率下跌9個百分點，而表示最關心經濟問題的比率則上升5個百分點，創2013年以來新高。以0-10分計算，市民對民生、經濟及政治問題關心程度的評分分別是7.43、7.06及6.33分，民生問題關心程度創2017年以來新低，而政治問題關心程度則為2018年12月以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為49.3%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.24。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 21-25/6/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,014 (包括506個固網及508個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 49.3% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-5%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.24 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價 (數字已於6月29日的新聞公報發放)：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[3] | 15% | 19%[4] | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[3] | 62% | 62% | 65% | 64% | 62% | 56+/-3% | -6%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49% | -44% | -36+/-5% | +8%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.2[4] |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[3] | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17%[4] | 18+/-2% | -- |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[3] | 67% | 68% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 56+/-3% | -4%[4] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49% | -43% | -38+/-5% | +5% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2[4] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[4] |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[3] | 15% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[3] | 63% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39% | -40% | -41+/-5% | -1% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[3]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的最新滿意率分別為19%、18%及20%，而滿意淨值就分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.1至2.4，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。與上個月比較，民生狀況的滿意率淨值顯著上升8個百分點。
市民對社會問題關心程度的最新調查結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/12/18 | 13-18/12/19 | 15-18/6/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,046 | 1,002 | 620 | 592 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.6% | 60.6% | 61.6% | 54.1% | 68.7% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 最關心民生問題比率 | 63% | 66% | 41%[6] | 44% | 53%[6] | 44+/-4% | -9%[6] |
| 最關心政治問題比率 | 16% | 13% | 40%[6] | 35%[6] | 24%[6] | 28+/-4% | +4% |
| 最關心經濟問題比率 | 18% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 23+/-3% | +5%[6] |
| 關心民生問題的評分[5] | 7.45 | 7.46 | 7.57 | 7.84[6] | 7.48[6] | 7.43+/-0.18 | -0.05[6] |
| 關心經濟問題的評分[5] | 6.97[6] | 6.99 | 6.90 | 7.32[6] | 7.18 | 7.06+/-0.17 | -0.12[6] |
| 關心政治問題的評分[5] | 5.97 | 6.05 | 7.09[6] | 7.24 | 6.87[6] | 6.33+/-0.24 | -0.55[6] |
[5]2018年10月至12月，民研計劃為不同量尺描述程度的字眼進行測試，表中數字為綜合結果。詳情請參閱網站。
[6]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，以三選一的方式提問，分別有44%和28%被訪市民表示最關心民生和政治問題，而表示最關心經濟問題的，則佔23%。與半年前比較，表示最關心民生問題的比率下跌9個百分點，而表示最關心經濟問題的比率則上升5個百分點，創2013年以來新高。以0-10分計算，市民對民生、經濟及政治問題關心程度的評分分別是7.43、7.06及6.33分，民生問題關心程度創2017年以來新低，而政治問題關心程度則為2018年12月以來新低。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為17-21/5/2021，而今次調查日期則為21-25/6/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 24/6/21 | 香港新增7宗新冠肺炎個案，均涉變種病毒 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 22/6/21 | 蘋果日報多個版面停止更新 |
| 21/6/21 | 壹傳媒指若不獲解凍資產或停運 |
| 21/6/21 | 香港連續14日沒有本地確診個案，政府將放寬防疫措施 |
| 19/6/21 | 壹傳媒兩高層被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 18/6/21 | 政府公布電子消費券發放安排 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 14/6/21 | G7峰會閉幕發表聯合公報多次提及中國 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 5/6/21 | 香港出現源頭不明新冠肺炎變種病毒個案 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 31/5/21 | 政府擬限制未接種疫苗者進入各類場所 |
| 30/5/21 | 政府和商界推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 25/5/21 | 政府宣布將為持雙程證者和難民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 21/5/21 | 部分大學和企業推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 20/5/21 | 香港連續27日沒有源頭不明本地個案 |
數據分析
調查顯示，市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，當中民生狀況的滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升8個百分點。以三選一的方式提問，分別有44%和28%被訪市民表示最關心民生和政治問題，而表示最關心經濟問題的，則佔23%。與半年前比較，表示最關心民生問題的比率下跌9個百分點，而表示最關心經濟問題的比率則上升5個百分點，創2013年以來新高。以0-10分計算，市民對民生、經濟及政治問題關心程度的評分分別是7.43、7.06及6.33分，民生問題關心程度創2017年以來新低，而政治問題關心程度則為2018年12月以來新低。
Jul 06, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases appraisals of society’s current conditions
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June. Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.24 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 21-25/6/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,014 (including 506 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 49.3% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.24 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows (the figures have been released in the press release on June 29):
| Date of survey | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[3] |
15% | 19%[4] | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3] |
62% | 62% | 65% | 64% | 62% | 56+/-3% | -6%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49% | -44% | -36+/-5% | +8%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.2[4] |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[3] |
13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17%[4] | 18+/-2% | -- |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3] |
67% | 68% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 56+/-3% | -4%[4] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49% | -43% | -38+/-5% | +5% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2[4] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[4] |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[3] |
15% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3] |
63% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39% | -40% | -41+/-5% | -1% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[3]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s latest satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are 19%, 18% and 20% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.1 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.
The latest survey results on people’s level of concern for social problems are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/12/18 | 13-18/12/19 | 15-18/6/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,046 | 1,002 | 620 | 592 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.6% | 60.6% | 61.6% | 54.1% | 68.7% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Most concerned with livelihood problems | 63% | 66% | 41%[6] | 44% | 53%[6] | 44+/-4% | -9%[6] |
| Most concerned with political problems | 16% | 13% | 40%[6] | 35%[6] | 24%[6] | 28+/-4% | +4% |
| Most concerned with economic problems | 18% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 18% | 23+/-3% | +5%[6] |
| Rating on concern for livelihood problems[5] | 7.45 | 7.46 | 7.57 | 7.84[6] | 7.48[6] | 7.43+/-0.18 | -0.05[6] |
| Rating on concern for economic problems[5] | 6.97[6] | 6.99 | 6.90 | 7.32[6] | 7.18 | 7.06+/-0.17 | -0.12[6] |
| Rating on concern for political problems[5] | 5.97 | 6.05 | 7.09[6] | 7.24 | 6.87[6] | 6.33+/-0.24 | -0.55[6] |
[5]From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.
[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 24/6/21 | Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 22/6/21 | Apple Daily stops updating several pages. |
| 21/6/21 | Next Digital may suspend publication if the request of unfreezing assets is not approved. |
| 21/6/21 | Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures. |
| 19/6/21 | Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 18/6/21 | The government announces the disbursement arrangement of electronic consumption vouchers. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 5/6/21 | Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 31/5/21 | The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises. |
| 30/5/21 | The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/5/21 | The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees. |
| 21/5/21 | Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 20/5/21 | Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018.
