2021年6月29日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會直播
民研計劃發放特首和政府民望數字、
特區成立週年調查結果以及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於六月底由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,014名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.8分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面，滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升10個百分點至負36，最新信任淨值則為負18個百分點。至於市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，當中民生狀況的滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升8個百分點。臨近特區成立二十四週年，調查顯示香港巿民對中國國民身份的自豪感比去年同期顯著上升7個百分點至41%，而沒有感到自豪的比率則下跌8個百分點至55%，是2010年以來最正面的調查結果。中央政府對港政策方面，市民的評價同樣錄得顯著改善，最新正面評價佔35%，負面評價為45%，淨值為負10個百分點。民情指數方面，最新數字為75.6，比六月上旬上升5.6點。調查的實效回應比率為49.3%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.0。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 21-25/6/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,014 (包括506個固網及508個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 49.3% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.0 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零二零年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2020年版）。 |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,003 | 1,004 | 1,013 | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 50.1% | 54.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8+/-2.0 | -0.5 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 17+/-2% | +1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 67% | 68% | 71% | 68% | 70% | 70+/-3% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53+/-5% | +1% |
[3]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | 548-613 | 566-646 | 544-583 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[4] | 16% | 23%[5] | 21% | 19% | 17% | 24+/-4% | +7%[5] |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[4] | 61% | 56% | 62%[5] | 59% | 63% | 60+/-4% | -3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -45% | -33%[5] | -42% | -40% | -46% | -36+/-7% | +10%[5] |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3+/-0.1 | +0.2[5] |
| 信任特區政府比率[4] | 28% | 36%[5] | 32% | 32% | 31% | 34+/-4% | +2% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[4] | 51% | 50% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 52+/-4% | -2% |
| 信任淨值 | -23% | -14% | -21% | -20% | -22% | -18+/-8% | +4% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[6] | 15% | 19%[7] | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[6] | 62% | 62% | 65% | 64% | 62% | 56+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49% | -44% | -36+/-5% | +8%[7] |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.2[7] |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[6] | 13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17%[7] | 18+/-2% | -- |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[6] | 67% | 68% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 56+/-3% | -4%[7] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49% | -43% | -38+/-5% | +5% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2[7] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[6] | 15% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[6] | 63% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39% | -40% | -41+/-5% | -1% |
| 平均量值[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[6]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[7]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為29.8分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，其支持率為17%，反對率為70%，民望淨值為負53個百分點，以上全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率較上個月顯著上升7個百分點至24%，不滿率為60%，滿意率淨值顯著上升10個百分點至負36。而平均量值亦顯著上升0.2分至2.3分，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。信任程度方面，最新信任比率為34%，不信任比率52%，信任淨值為負18個百分點。而平均量值為2.6分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。
至於市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的評價，最新滿意率分別為19%、18%及20%，而滿意淨值就分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，三者的平均量值介乎2.1至2.4，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「一半半」之間。與上個月比較，民生狀況的滿意率淨值顯著上升8個百分點。
特區成立週年調查
有關特區成立週年調查的結果如下：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/6/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/6/19 | 15-18/6/20 | 21-25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,007 | 1,000 | 1,015 | 1,002 | 1,014 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 71.2% | 59.6% | 58.7% | 54.1% | 49.3% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 因成為中國國民而感到自豪的比率 | 34% | 38%[9] | 27%[9] | 34%[9] | 41+/-3% | +7%[9] |
| 沒有感到自豪的比率 | 62% | 57%[9] | 71%[9] | 62%[9] | 55+/-3% | -8%[9] |
| 中央政府對港政策：正面評價[8] | 35%[9] | 36% | 23%[9] | 28%[9] | 35+/-3% | +6%[9] |
| 中央政府對港政策：負面評價[8] | 36% | 38% | 53%[9] | 50% | 45+/-3% | -5%[9] |
| 中央政府對港政策：評價淨值[8] | -2%[9] | -2% | -30%[9] | -21%[9] | -10+/-6% | +11%[9] |
| 平均量值[8] | 2.9[9] | 2.9 | 2.5[9] | 2.6 | 2.8+/-0.1 | +0.2[9] |
[8]數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[9]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
臨近特區成立二十四週年，調查顯示香港巿民對中國國民身份的自豪感比去年同期顯著上升7個百分點至41%，而沒有感到自豪的比率則下跌8個百分點至55%，是2010年以來最正面的調查結果。至於回歸以來中央政府對香港的政策，35%被訪市民給予正面評價，45%則給予負面評價，評價淨值為負10個百分點，平均量值則為2.8分，即整體上接近「一半半」。以上數字同樣較去年同期轉趨正面。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：75.6 (+5.6) | 政評數值：70.9 (+2.8) | 社評數值：78.3 (+7.2) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 9/4/21 | 22/4/21 | 7/5/21 | 21/5/21 | 10/6/21 | 25/6/21 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 69.0 | 71.3 | 70.6 | 70.4 | 70.0 | 75.6 | +5.6 |
| 政評數值 | 69.8 | 70.7 | 69.4 | 68.7 | 68.1 | 70.9 | +2.8 |
| 特首評分 | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | -0.5 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53% | +1% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.3 | +0.2 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.5[10] | 2.5 | 2.5[10] | 2.5 | 2.5[10] | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 67.5[10] | 70.8 | 70.8[10] | 71.1 | 71.1[10] | 78.3 | +7.2 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | -- |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.3 | 2.3[10] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.4 | +0.2 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10]當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較六月上旬上升5.6點至75.6，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的5個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值上升2.8點至70.9，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升7.2點至78.3。兩者分別可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的3個和7個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為17-21/5/2021，而今次調查日期則為21-25/6/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 25/6/21 | 李家超、鄧炳強及蕭澤頤分別出任政務司司長、保安局局長及警務處處長 |
| 24/6/21 | 香港新增7宗新冠肺炎個案，均涉變種病毒 |
| 23/6/21 | 蘋果日報出版最後一份報紙，印刷量達一百萬份 |
| 22/6/21 | 蘋果日報多個版面停止更新 |
| 21/6/21 | 壹傳媒指若不獲解凍資產或停運 |
| 21/6/21 | 香港連續14日沒有本地確診個案，政府將放寬防疫措施 |
| 19/6/21 | 壹傳媒兩高層被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 18/6/21 | 政府公布電子消費券發放安排 |
| 17/6/21 | 警方以國安法拘捕蘋果日報高層並凍結公司資產 |
| 14/6/21 | G7峰會閉幕發表聯合公報多次提及中國 |
| 12/6/21 | 駱惠寧指叫喊「結束一黨專政」者是香港大敵 |
| 11/6/21 | 政府修訂《電影檢查條例》，禁止危害國家安全電影上映 |
| 10/6/21 | 人大常委通過《反外國制裁法》 |
| 5/6/21 | 香港出現源頭不明新冠肺炎變種病毒個案 |
| 4/6/21 | 警方封鎖維園，阻止六四悼念集會 |
| 31/5/21 | 政府擬限制未接種疫苗者進入各類場所 |
| 30/5/21 | 政府和商界推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 28/5/21 | 十位知名民主派人士就10月1日集會案被判罪成入獄 |
| 27/5/21 | 立法會通過修改選舉制度 |
| 25/5/21 | 政府宣布將為持雙程證者和難民接種新冠疫苗 |
| 21/5/21 | 部分大學和企業推出措施鼓勵接種疫苗 |
| 20/5/21 | 香港連續27日沒有源頭不明本地個案 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.8分，有43%受訪者給予林鄭月娥0分，民望淨值為負53個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府方面，滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升10個百分點至負36，最新信任淨值則為負18個百分點。至於市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的評價，滿意淨值就分別為負36、負38及負41個百分點，當中民生狀況的滿意率淨值較上個月顯著上升8個百分點。
臨近特區成立二十四週年，調查顯示香港巿民對中國國民身份的自豪感比去年同期顯著上升7個百分點至41%，而沒有感到自豪的比率則下跌8個百分點至55%，是2010年以來最正面的調查結果。中央政府對港政策方面，市民的評價同樣錄得顯著改善，最新正面評價佔35%，負面評價為45%，淨值為負10個百分點。
民情指數方面，最新數字為75.6，比六月上旬上升5.6點。
Jun 29, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity figures of CE and SAR Government,
HKSAR anniversary survey along with PSI
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points over the month past to negative 36, while the latest net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also improved significantly. The latest positive appraisal percentage stands at 35%, negative appraisal at 45%, resulting in a net value of negative 10 percentage points. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 21-25/6/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,014 (including 506 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 49.3% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 7-9/4/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 3-7/5/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,003 | 1,004 | 1,013 | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | -- |
| Response rate | 50.1% | 54.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8+/-2.0 | -0.5 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
20% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 17+/-2% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
67% | 68% | 71% | 68% | 70% | 70+/-3% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53+/-5% | +1% |
[3]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 510-600 | 519 | 570-630 | 548-613 | 566-646 | 544-583 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 16% | 23%[5] | 21% | 19% | 17% | 24+/-4% | +7%[5] |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 61% | 56% | 62%[5] | 59% | 63% | 60+/-4% | -3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -45% | -33%[5] | -42% | -40% | -46% | -36+/-7% | +10%[5] |
| Mean value[4] | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3+/-0.1 | +0.2[5] |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 28% | 36%[5] | 32% | 32% | 31% | 34+/-4% | +2% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 51% | 50% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 52+/-4% | -2% |
| Net trust | -23% | -14% | -21% | -20% | -22% | -18+/-8% | +4% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[4]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,011 | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.2% | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
15% | 19%[7] | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19+/-2% | +2% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
62% | 62% | 65% | 64% | 62% | 56+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -47% | -43% | -48% | -49% | -44% | -36+/-5% | +8%[7] |
| Mean value[6] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.2[7] |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
13% | 12% | 12% | 14% | 17%[7] | 18+/-2% | -- |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
67% | 68% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 56+/-3% | -4%[7] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -54% | -56% | -54% | -49% | -43% | -38+/-5% | +5% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2[7] | 2.3 | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1[7] |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
15% | 18% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20+/-3% | -- |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
63% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -47% | -42% | -41% | -39% | -40% | -41+/-5% | -1% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
[6]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 7 percentage points to 24% compared to a month ago, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 60%, thus the net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points to negative 36. The mean score has also significantly increased by 0.2 point to 2.3, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 34% of the respondents expressed trust, 52% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 19%, 18% and 20% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.1 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.
HKSAR Anniversary Survey
The results of the HKSAR anniversary survey are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/6/17 | 14-21/6/18 | 17-20/6/19 | 15-18/6/20 | 21-25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,007 | 1,000 | 1,015 | 1,002 | 1,014 | -- |
| Response rate | 71.2% | 59.6% | 58.7% | 54.1% | 49.3% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Proud of becoming a national citizen of China | 34% | 38%[9] | 27%[9] | 34%[9] | 41+/-3% | +7%[9] |
| Not proud of becoming a national citizen of China | 62% | 57%[9] | 71%[9] | 62%[9] | 55+/-3% | -8%[9] |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: positive appraisal[8] | 35%[9] | 36% | 23%[9] | 28%[9] | 35+/-3% | +6%[9] |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: negative appraisal[8] | 36% | 38% | 53%[9] | 50% | 45+/-3% | -5%[9] |
| Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong: net appraisal[8] | -2%[9] | -2% | -30%[9] | -21%[9] | -10+/-6% | +11%[9] |
| Mean value[8] | 2.9[9] | 2.9 | 2.5[9] | 2.6 | 2.8+/-0.1 | +0.2[9] |
[8]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for the policies of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 35% of the respondents gave positive feedback, whereas 45% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 10 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8 marks, meaning close to “half-half” in general. These figures have also turned more positive compared to this time last year.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 75.6 (+5.6) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 70.9 (+2.8) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 78.3 (+7.2) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 9/4/21 | 22/4/21 | 7/5/21 | 21/5/21 | 10/6/21 | 25/6/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 69.0 | 71.3 | 70.6 | 70.4 | 70.0 | 75.6 | +5.6 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 69.8 | 70.7 | 69.4 | 68.7 | 68.1 | 70.9 | +2.8 |
| Rating of CE | 30.7 | 32.0 | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | -0.5 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -47% | -50% | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53% | +1% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.3 | +0.2 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.5[10] | 2.5 | 2.5[10] | 2.5 | 2.5[10] | 2.6 | +0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 67.5[10] | 70.8 | 70.8[10] | 71.1 | 71.1[10] | 78.3 | +7.2 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | -- |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.1[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.3 | 2.3[10] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.4 | +0.2 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10]POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June. It can be considered as among the worst 5% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 2.8 points to 70.9, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 7.2 points to 78.3. They can be considered as among the worst 3% and 7% across the past 20 years or so respectively.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 24/6/21 | Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 22/6/21 | Apple Daily stops updating several pages. |
| 21/6/21 | Next Digital may suspend publication if the request of unfreezing assets is not approved. |
| 21/6/21 | Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures. |
| 19/6/21 | Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 18/6/21 | The government announces the disbursement arrangement of electronic consumption vouchers. |
| 17/6/21 | Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law. |
| 14/6/21 | G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times. |
| 12/6/21 | Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong. |
| 11/6/21 | The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security. |
| 10/6/21 | NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. |
| 5/6/21 | Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant. |
| 4/6/21 | Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil. |
| 31/5/21 | The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises. |
| 30/5/21 | The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 28/5/21 | 10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly. |
| 27/5/21 | The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 25/5/21 | The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees. |
| 21/5/21 | Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination. |
| 20/5/21 | Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 29.8 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, net satisfaction has significantly increased by 10 percentage points over the month past to negative 36, while the latest net trust value stands at negative 18 percentage points. As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.
As the 24th handover anniversary of the HKSAR draws near, our survey shows that compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has increased significantly by 7 percentage points to 41%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud fell back by 8 percentage points to 55%, representing the most positive survey results since 2010. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, the figures have also improved significantly. The latest positive appraisal percentage stands at 35%, negative appraisal at 45%, resulting in a net value of negative 10 percentage points.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 75.6, up by 5.6 points from early June.
