2021年3月23日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放五項核心社會指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於三月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.70、4.26、4.26、3.92和3.59分。相比一個月前，除了自由指標外，所有指標皆錄得顯著跌幅，下跌0.58至0.72分不等。調查的實效回應比率為47.6%。在95%置信水平下，調查的評分誤差不超過+/-0.29。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 8-12/3/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括496個固網及505個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 47.6% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-0.29 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 579-634 | 602-609 | 594-604 | 650-657 | 534-654 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | 47.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 4.60 | 4.68 | 4.45 | 5.02[3] | 4.70+/-0.29 | -0.32 |
| 安定指標 | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.04 | 4.99[3] | 4.26+/-0.24 | -0.72[3] |
| 繁榮指標 | 4.57[3] | 4.11[3] | 4.09 | 4.96[3] | 4.26+/-0.22 | -0.70[3] |
| 法治指標 | 4.05 | 4.01 | 3.80 | 4.50[3] | 3.92+/-0.25 | -0.58[3] |
| 民主指標 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 3.56 | 4.27[3] | 3.59+/-0.26 | -0.67[3] |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.70、4.26、4.26、3.92和3.59分。相比一個月前，除了自由指標外，所有指標皆錄得顯著跌幅，下跌0.58至0.72分不等。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為2-5/2/2021，而今次調查日期則為8-12/3/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 12/03/21 | 香港新增54宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 12/03/21 | 張曉明評論全國人大修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 11/03/21 | 全國人大會議通過修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 08/03/21 | 71歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 06/03/21 | 55歲女子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 05/03/21 | 全國人大會議將審議修改香港的選舉制度 |
| 03/03/21 | 專家委員會指63歲男子死亡事件與疫苗無關 |
| 02/03/21 | 63歲男子接種科興疫苗後死亡 |
| 01/03/21 | 法庭通宵審議47名民主派人士保釋申請 |
| 28/02/21 | 47名民主派人士被控「串謀顛覆國家政權罪」 |
| 27/02/21 | 香港新增31宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 25/02/21 | 政府將分期發放5,000元電子消費券 |
| 24/02/21 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 23/02/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓，列出負面行為清單，違者將取消資格 |
| 22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度，確保「愛國者治港」 |
| 19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告，並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
| 18/2/21 | 科興疫苗抵港，政府公布接種計劃 |
| 16/2/21 | 政府恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 10/2/21 | 政府預告將恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
| 5/2/21 | 駱惠寧主持中聯辦網上新春酒會並致辭 |
數據分析
以0至10分評價，市民對五項核心社會指標的評分由高至低分別是「自由」、「安定」、「繁榮」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.70、4.26、4.26、3.92和3.59分。相比一個月前，除了自由指標外，所有指標皆錄得顯著跌幅，下跌0.58至0.72分不等。
March 23, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early March. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59 respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72. The effective response rate of the survey is 47.6%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.29 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 8-12/3/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 496 landline and 505 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 47.6% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.29 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 8-12/3/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 579-634 | 602-609 | 594-604 | 650-657 | 534-654 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | 47.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 4.60 | 4.68 | 4.45 | 5.02[3] | 4.70+/-0.29 | -0.32 |
| Degree of stability | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.04 | 4.99[3] | 4.26+/-0.24 | -0.72[3] |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.57[3] | 4.11[3] | 4.09 | 4.96[3] | 4.26+/-0.22 | -0.70[3] |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.05 | 4.01 | 3.80 | 4.50[3] | 3.92+/-0.25 | -0.58[3] |
| Degree of democracy | 3.74 | 3.85 | 3.56 | 4.27[3] | 3.59+/-0.26 | -0.67[3] |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59 respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 5 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 12 March, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 12/03/21 | Hong Kong confirms 54 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 12/03/21 | Zhang Xiaoming comments on The National People’s Congress decision on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 11/03/21 | The National People’s Congress passes bill on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 08/03/21 | A male of age 71 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 06/03/21 | A female of age 55 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 05/03/21 | The National People’s Congress will deliberate on amending Hong Kong’s electoral system. |
| 03/03/21 | Expert committee finds no link between Sinovac vaccine and the death of the male aged 63. |
| 02/03/21 | A male of age 63 dies after taking the Sinovac vaccine. |
| 01/03/21 | The court reviews 47 democrats’ bail application overnight. |
| 28/02/21 | 47 democrats are charged with “conspiracy to commit subversion”. |
| 27/02/21 | Hong Kong confirms 31 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 25/02/21 | The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches. |
| 24/02/21 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 23/02/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
| 18/2/21 | Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan. |
| 16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 10/2/21 | The government announces that the dine-in ban during nighttime will be lifted, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
| 5/2/21 | Luo Huining holds liaison office’s annual spring reception online and delivers a speech. |
Data Analysis
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.70, 4.26, 4.26, 3.92 and 3.59, respectively. Compared with a month ago, except “freedom” indicator, all other indicators have registered significant decrease, down by 0.58 to 0.72.
