2021年3月9日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放各項信任及信心指標以及
市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於二月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，政府信任程度方面，36%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔41%及30%，三項信任淨值分別為負14、負2及負9個百分點。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值大幅上升27個百分點，而台灣政府的信任淨值則顯著下跌11個百分點。信心指標方面，62%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正34個百分點。另一方面，分別有48%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心。全部三個信心指標淨值均比半年前急升21至39個百分點。市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、董建華、曾蔭權、鄭若驊、張建宗、李柱銘和李慧琼，然後第十一至二十名分別為黃之鋒、陳肇始、譚耀宗、梁國雄、曾鈺成、李卓人、曾俊華、陳方安生、唐英年和周庭。當中林鄭月娥、陳茂波、鄭若驊、陳肇始和周庭的提名比率創歷史新高。至於陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低。對比半年前，8位政治人物蟬聯十大，黃之鋒和楊岳橋則跌出榜外，並由陳茂波和鄭若驊取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的總結排名位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華。調查的實效回應比率為57.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 24-26/2/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括500個固網及500個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 57.2% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
信任及信心指標
市民對特區、北京中央及台灣政府的信任程度、對中港前途以及一國兩制的信心的最新結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 637 | 529 | 623 | 510 | 519 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任特區政府比率[3] | 26% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36+/-4% | +8%[4] |
| 不信任特區政府比率[3] | 61%[4] | 49%[4] | 56%[4] | 51% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| 信任淨值 | -35% | -20%[4] | -27% | -23% | -14+/-8% | +9% |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.3 | 2.5[4] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 調查日期 | 28/2-5/3/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 613-674 | 603-633 | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 72.2% | 68.5% | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 信任中央政府比率[3] | 33%[4] | 23%[4] | 20% | 28%[4] | 41+/-4% | +12%[4] |
| 不信任中央政府比率[3] | 48%[4] | 63%[4] | 63% | 58% | 43+/-4% | -15%[4] |
| 信任淨值 | -15%[4] | -40%[4] | -43% | -29%[4] | -2+/-7% | +27%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.7[4] | 2.2[4] | 2.1 | 2.4[4] | 2.9+/-0.1 | +0.5[4] |
| 信任台灣政府比率[3] | 23% | 25% | 38%[4] | 35% | 30+/-4% | -5% |
| 不信任台灣政府比率[3] | 40% | 37% | 28%[4] | 34%[4] | 39+/-4% | +5% |
| 信任淨值 | -17% | -12% | 10%[4] | 2% | -9+/-7% | -11%[4] |
| 平均量值[3] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.1[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.7+/-0.1 | -0.2[4] |
| 對香港前途有信心比率 | 39%[4] | 40% | 26%[4] | 38%[4] | 48+/-4% | +10%[4] |
| 對香港前途沒有信心比率 | 55%[4] | 52% | 70%[4] | 57%[4] | 46+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| 信心淨值 | -16%[4] | -12% | -44%[4] | -19%[4] | 3+/-8% | +21%[4] |
| 對中國前途有信心比率 | 62% | 42%[4] | 39% | 43% | 62+/-4% | +19%[4] |
| 對中國前途沒有信心比率 | 32% | 50%[4] | 52% | 48% | 28+/-4% | -20%[4] |
| 信心淨值 | 30% | -8%[4] | -13% | -4% | 34+/-7% | +39%[4] |
| 對一國兩制有信心比率 | 41% | 34%[4] | 27%[4] | 35%[4] | 45+/-4% | +10%[4] |
| 對一國兩制沒有信心比率 | 55%[4] | 62%[4] | 68%[4] | 61%[4] | 50+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| 信心淨值 | -14% | -28%[4] | -41%[4] | -26%[4] | -5+/-8% | +22%[4] |
[3] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
政府信任程度方面，36%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔41%及30%，三項信任淨值分別為負14、負2及負9個百分點，平均量值就分別為2.6、2.9及2.7分，即信任香港特區政府及台灣政府程度整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間，而信任北京中央政府程度則接近「一半半」。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值大幅上升27個百分點，而台灣政府的信任淨值則顯著下跌11個百分點。
信心指標方面，62%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正34個百分點。另一方面，分別有48%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心。全部三個信心指標淨值均比半年前急升21至39個百分點。
市民最熟悉政治人物
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的香港在世政治人物。以下是最新調查中前二十名的結果[5]：
| 調查日期 | 29/1-8/2/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/2020 | 24-26/2/21 | |||||
| 樣本數目 | 537 | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | 500 | |||||
| 回應比率 | 63.0% | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | 57.2% | |||||
| 最新結果 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 |
| 林鄭月娥 | 35% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 61+/-4% | 1 |
| 陳茂波 | 11% | 10 | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11% | 11 | 32+/-4% | 2 |
| 梁振英 | 26% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 23+/-4% | 3 |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 13% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17% | 6 | 18+/-3% | 4 |
| 董建華 | 29% | 3 | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 17+/-3% | 5 |
| 曾蔭權 | 33% | 2 | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13% | 8 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| 鄭若驊 | 3% | 30 | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11% | 12 | 16+/-3% | 7 |
| 張建宗 | 6% | 15 | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23% | 2 | 14+/-3% | 8 |
| 李柱銘 | 14% | 5 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12% | 10 | 14+/-3% | 9 |
| 李慧琼 | 6% | 14 | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12% | 9 | 11+/-3% | 10 |
| 黃之鋒 | 4% | 21 | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19% | 4 | 10+/-3% | 11 |
| 陳肇始 | 2% | 45 | 1% | -- | 7% | 19 | 7% | 19 | 9+/-3% | 12 |
| 譚耀宗 | 2% | 39 | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10% | 13 | 9+/-3% | 13 |
| 梁國雄 | 12% | 8 | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8% | 16 | 8+/-3% | 14 |
| 曾鈺成 | 8% | 12 | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9% | 14 | 8+/-2% | 15 |
| 李卓人 | 7% | 13 | 3% | 34 | 2% | 50 | 3% | 48 | 8+/-2% | 16 |
| 曾俊華 | 14% | 6 | 11% | 13 | 12% | 8 | 5% | 29 | 7+/-2% | 17 |
| 陳方安生 | 11% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9% | 15 | 6+/-2% | 18 |
| 唐英年 | 9% | 11 | 5% | 25 | 8% | 15 | 5% | 31 | 6+/-2% | 19 |
| 周庭 | -- | -- | 1% | -- | 1% | -- | 3% | 41 | 6+/-2% | 20 |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。每次調查中，排名第50位以後則視作沒有上榜。
調查結果發現，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、董建華、曾蔭權、鄭若驊、張建宗、李柱銘和李慧琼，然後第十一至二十名分別為黃之鋒、陳肇始、譚耀宗、梁國雄、曾鈺成、李卓人、曾俊華、陳方安生、唐英年和周庭。當中林鄭月娥、陳茂波、鄭若驊、陳肇始和周庭的提名比率創歷史新高。至於陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低，而董建華的提名比率亦創自2016年的新低。
市民最熟悉政治人物調查的作用，在於以該等人物在巿民心目中熟悉程度的起跌，顯示政治生態的改變。對比半年前，不分民望高低，8位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，黃之鋒和楊岳橋則跌出榜外，並由陳茂波和鄭若驊取代。
須要註明，「巿民最熟悉政治人物」的排名方法是以被訪者在沒有提示下說出的政治人物計，是量度知名度的方法之一，與支持度無關。換言之，知名度排名很高的政治人物並不一定是最受歡迎的政治人物，而知名度排名偏低的政治人物，亦可能會在有提示的知名度調查中得到不同的排名。但無論如何，能夠在沒有提示的調查中脫穎而出者，肯定是巿民最熟悉的政治人物。
以下則是累積過去10次大約跨越5年「巿民最熟悉政治人物」調查的部分結果：
| 總結排名 | 3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20 | 24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21 | ||
| 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[6] | 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[6] | |
| 1 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.8 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 梁振英 | 2.5 | 梁振英 | 2.7 |
| 3 | 曾蔭權 | 4.2 | 曾蔭權 | 4.0 |
| 4 | 董建華 | 5.0 | 董建華 | 4.6 |
| 5 | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.2 | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.0 |
| 6 | 梁國雄 | 7.5 | 李柱銘 | 8.7[7] |
| 7 | 曾鈺成 | 8.7 | 梁國雄 | 8.7[7] |
| 8 | 李柱銘 | 9.3 | 曾鈺成 | 9.8 |
| 9 | 曾俊華 | 9.4 | 曾俊華 | 10.4 |
| 10 | 陳方安生 | 11.5 | 陳方安生 | 12.1 |
| 11 | 李慧琼 | 13.6 | 李慧琼 | 12.5 |
| 12 | 陳茂波 | 17.1 | 陳茂波 | 15.4 |
| 13 | 楊岳橋 | 18.3[7] | 楊岳橋 | 18.2 |
| 14 | 黃毓民 | 18.3[7] | 唐英年 | 18.4 |
| 15 | 唐英年 | 18.4 | 張建宗 | 18.9 |
| 16 | 田北辰 | 20.7 | 黃之鋒 | 21.3 |
| 17 | 張建宗 | 21.4 | 田北辰 | 21.7 |
| 18 | 黃之鋒 | 23.6 | 黃毓民 | 22.4 |
| 19 | 范徐麗泰 | 23.7[7] | 陳淑莊 | 25.2 |
| 20 | 田北俊 | 23.7[7] | 范徐麗泰 | 26.7[7] |
| 20 | -- | -- | 田北俊 | 26.7[7] |
[6]每次調查中，排名第50位以後或者沒有上榜者，在計算平均排名時，皆作第50名論。
[7] 10次調查平均排名相同。
總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的總結排名位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華。總結排名第五至第十位則依次為葉劉淑儀、李柱銘、梁國雄、曾鈺成、曾俊華和陳方安生。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為3-6/8/2020，而今次調查日期則為24-26/2/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 25/2/21 | 政府將分期發放5,000元電子消費券 |
| 24/2/21 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 23/2/21 | 政府提出修例規管公職人員宣誓，列出負面行為清單，違者將取消資格 |
| 22/2/21 | 夏寶龍指中央政府將改變香港選舉制度，確保「愛國者治港」 |
| 19/2/21 | 政府公布香港電台的管治及管理檢討報告，並宣布由李百全接替梁家榮出任廣播處長 |
| 18/2/21 | 科興疫苗抵港，政府公布接種計劃 |
| 16/2/21 | 政府恢復晚市堂食，唯顧客須使用「安心出行」應用程式或登記資料 |
| 9/2/21 | 終審法院撤銷高等法院批准黎智英保釋的決定 |
| 1/2/21 | 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並降低封區門檻 |
| 29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情；中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
| 27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
| 13/1/21 | 巴西當局公布科興疫苗整體有效率為50.4% |
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
| 31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴，黎智英還押候訊 |
| 30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年，兩名未成年者移交香港 |
| 28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒，政府實施強制檢測 |
| 25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋，禁離家受訪發文 |
| 23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金，並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
| 21/12/20 | 英國出現變種新冠病毒，港府禁止英國客機來港 |
| 17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
| 12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
| 8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施，新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
| 5/12/20 | 國安法指定法官蘇惠德收到死亡恐嚇 |
| 3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
| 30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
| 26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
| 25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
| 24/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼 |
| 21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
| 19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
| 17/11/20 | 林鄭月娥及張曉明於基本法頒布30周年法律高峰論壇發表演說 |
| 14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，推行強制檢測 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
| 6/11/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 1/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反權力及特權法拘捕6名民主派議員 |
| 31/10/20 | 七名8.31暴動案被告被裁定無罪 |
| 29/10/20 | 中共五中全會通過「十四五」規劃 |
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 30/9/20 | 駱惠寧、董建華及香港高官慶祝中華人民共和國成立七十一周年 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 21/9/20 | 匯豐控股股價創25年新低 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
| 27/8/20 | 中國海警於8月23日截獲赴台快艇，拘捕12名香港青年 |
| 26/8/20 | 警方就7．21事件以暴動罪拘捕13名白衣人以外人士 |
| 19/8/20 | 香港失業率升至6.1% |
| 18/8/20 | 政府公布第二期保就業計劃 |
| 11/8/20 | 人大常委決定現屆立法會繼續履行職責不少於一年 |
| 10/8/20 | 警方引用國安法搜查壹傳媒，並拘捕黎智英及周庭等人 |
| 8/8/20 | 香港政府發表聲明譴責美國制裁11名中港官員 |
| 6/8/20 | 美國擴大「乾淨網絡」計劃，進一步限制中國科技公司 |
數據分析
調查顯示，政府信任程度方面，36%被訪市民表示信任香港特區政府，信任北京中央政府及台灣政府的，則佔41%及30%，三項信任淨值分別為負14、負2及負9個百分點。對比半年前，北京中央政府的信任淨值大幅上升27個百分點，而台灣政府的信任淨值則顯著下跌11個百分點。信心指標方面，62%表示對中國前途有信心，淨值為正34個百分點。另一方面，分別有48%和45%市民表示對香港前途和一國兩制有信心。全部三個信心指標淨值均比半年前急升21至39個百分點。
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、陳茂波、梁振英、葉劉淑儀、董建華、曾蔭權、鄭若驊、張建宗、李柱銘和李慧琼，然後第十一至二十名分別為黃之鋒、陳肇始、譚耀宗、梁國雄、曾鈺成、李卓人、曾俊華、陳方安生、唐英年和周庭。當中林鄭月娥、陳茂波、鄭若驊、陳肇始和周庭的提名比率創歷史新高。至於陳方安生的提名比率則創歷史新低。對比半年前，8位政治人物蟬聯十大，黃之鋒和楊岳橋則跌出榜外，並由陳茂波和鄭若驊取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的總結排名位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華。
March 9, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases the trust and confidence indicators as well as
rankings of people’s most familiar political figures
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late February. Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago. Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentage for Anson Chan has registered historical low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10 whilst Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa. The effective response rate of the survey is 57.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 24-26/2/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 500 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 57.2% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Trust and Confidence Indicators
Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 19-22/10/20 | 23-26/11/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 18-22/1/21 | 24-26/2/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 637 | 529 | 623 | 510 | 519 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.2% | 74.6% | 68.7% | 67.2% | 57.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[3] | 26% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 36+/-4% | +8%[4] |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[3] | 61%[4] | 49%[4] | 56%[4] | 51% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -35% | -20%[4] | -27% | -23% | -14+/-8% | +9% |
| Mean value[3] | 2.3 | 2.5[4] | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Date of survey | 28/2-5/3/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 24-26/2/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 613-674 | 603-633 | 575-612 | 597-644 | 575-620 | -- |
| Response rate | 72.2% | 68.5% | 64.6% | 60.9% | 57.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in Beijing Government[3] | 33%[4] | 23%[4] | 20% | 28%[4] | 41+/-4% | +12%[4] |
| Distrust in Beijing Government[3] | 48%[4] | 63%[4] | 63% | 58% | 43+/-4% | -15%[4] |
| Net trust | -15%[4] | -40%[4] | -43% | -29%[4] | -2+/-7% | +27%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.7[4] | 2.2[4] | 2.1 | 2.4[4] | 2.9+/-0.1 | +0.5[4] |
| Trust in Taiwan Government[3] | 23% | 25% | 38%[4] | 35% | 30+/-4% | -5% |
| Distrust in Taiwan Government[3] | 40% | 37% | 28%[4] | 34%[4] | 39+/-4% | +5% |
| Net trust | -17% | -12% | 10%[4] | 2% | -9+/-7% | -11%[4] |
| Mean value[3] | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.1[4] | 2.9[4] | 2.7+/-0.1 | -0.2[4] |
| Confidence in HK’s future | 39%[4] | 40% | 26%[4] | 38%[4] | 48+/-4% | +10%[4] |
| No-confidence in HK’s future | 55%[4] | 52% | 70%[4] | 57%[4] | 46+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| Net confidence | -16%[4] | -12% | -44%[4] | -19%[4] | 3+/-8% | +21%[4] |
| Confidence in China’s future | 62% | 42%[4] | 39% | 43% | 62+/-4% | +19%[4] |
| No-confidence in China’s future | 32% | 50%[4] | 52% | 48% | 28+/-4% | -20%[4] |
| Net confidence | 30% | -8%[4] | -13% | -4% | 34+/-7% | +39%[4] |
| Confidence in “one country, two systems” |
41% | 34%[4] | 27%[4] | 35%[4] | 45+/-4% | +10%[4] |
| No-confidence in “one country, two systems” |
55%[4] | 62%[4] | 68%[4] | 61%[4] | 50+/-4% | -11%[4] |
| Net confidence | -14% | -28%[4] | -41%[4] | -26%[4] | -5+/-8% | +22%[4] |
[3] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points, while the mean scores are 2.6, 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, meaning trust in the HKSAR Government and Taiwan Government are between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general whilst trust in the Beijing Central Government is close to “half-half” in general. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points.
As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago.
People’s Most Familiar Political Figures
As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[5]:
| Date of survey | 29/1-8/2/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/2020 | 24-26/2/21 | |||||
| Sample size | 537 | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | 500 | |||||
| Response rate | 63.0% | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | 57.2% | |||||
| Latest findings | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank |
| Carrie Lam | 35% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61% | 1 | 61+/-4% | 1 |
| Paul Chan | 11% | 10 | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11% | 11 | 32+/-4% | 2 |
| Leung Chun-ying | 26% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22% | 3 | 23+/-4% | 3 |
| Regina Ip | 13% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17% | 6 | 18+/-3% | 4 |
| Tung Chee-hwa | 29% | 3 | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18% | 5 | 17+/-3% | 5 |
| Donald Tsang | 33% | 2 | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13% | 8 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| Teresa Cheng | 3% | 30 | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11% | 12 | 16+/-3% | 7 |
| Matthew Cheung | 6% | 15 | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23% | 2 | 14+/-3% | 8 |
| Martin Lee | 14% | 5 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12% | 10 | 14+/-3% | 9 |
| Starry Lee | 6% | 14 | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12% | 9 | 11+/-3% | 10 |
| Joshua Wong | 4% | 21 | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19% | 4 | 10+/-3% | 11 |
| Sophia Chan | 2% | 45 | 1% | -- | 7% | 19 | 7% | 19 | 9+/-3% | 12 |
| Tam Yiu-chung | 2% | 39 | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10% | 13 | 9+/-3% | 13 |
| Leung Kwok-hung | 12% | 8 | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8% | 16 | 8+/-3% | 14 |
| Jasper Tsang | 8% | 12 | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9% | 14 | 8+/-2% | 15 |
| Lee Cheuk-yan | 7% | 13 | 3% | 34 | 2% | 50 | 3% | 48 | 8+/-2% | 16 |
| John Tsang | 14% | 6 | 11% | 13 | 12% | 8 | 5% | 29 | 7+/-2% | 17 |
| Anson Chan | 11% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9% | 15 | 6+/-2% | 18 |
| Henry Tang | 9% | 11 | 5% | 25 | 8% | 15 | 5% | 31 | 6+/-2% | 19 |
| Agnes Chow | -- | -- | 1% | -- | 1% | -- | 3% | 41 | 6+/-2% | 20 |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.
Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentages for Anson Chan has registered historical low, and that for Tung Chee-hwa has also registered record low since 2016.
The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 8 political figures remain in the top 10. Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung.
It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
| Overall rank | 3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20 | 24-27/10/16──24-26/2/21 | ||
| Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[6] |
Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[6] |
|
| 1 | Carrie Lam | 1.8 | Carrie Lam | 1.6 |
| 2 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.5 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.7 |
| 3 | Donald Tsang | 4.2 | Donald Tsang | 4.0 |
| 4 | Tung Chee-hwa | 5.0 | Tung Chee-hwa | 4.6 |
| 5 | Regina Ip | 6.2 | Regina Ip | 6.0 |
| 6 | Leung Kwok-hung | 7.5 | Martin Lee | 8.7[7] |
| 7 | Jasper Tsang | 8.7 | Leung Kwok-hung | 8.7[7] |
| 8 | Martin Lee | 9.3 | Jasper Tsang | 9.8 |
| 9 | John Tsang | 9.4 | John Tsang | 10.4 |
| 10 | Anson Chan | 11.5 | Anson Chan | 12.1 |
| 11 | Starry Lee | 13.6 | Starry Lee | 12.5 |
| 12 | Paul Chan | 17.1 | Paul Chan | 15.4 |
| 13 | Alvin Yeung | 18.3[7] | Alvin Yeung | 18.2 |
| 14 | Raymond Wong | 18.3[7] | Henry Tang | 18.4 |
| 15 | Henry Tang | 18.4 | Matthew Cheung | 18.9 |
| 16 | Michael Tien | 20.7 | Joshua Wong | 21.3 |
| 17 | Matthew Cheung | 21.4 | Michael Tien | 21.7 |
| 18 | Joshua Wong | 23.6 | Raymond Wong | 22.4 |
| 19 | Rita Fan | 23.7[7] | Tanya Chan | 25.2 |
| 20 | James Tien | 23.7[7] | Rita Fan | 26.7[7] |
| 20 | -- | -- | James Tien | 26.7[7] |
[6] For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.
[7] The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa, while Regina Ip, Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, John Tsang and Anson Chan occupied the 5th to 10th ranks overall.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 24 to 26 February, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 25/2/21 | The government will distribute e-vouchers for spending worth $5,000 in batches. |
| 24/2/21 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 23/2/21 | The government proposes amendments to laws to regulate oath-taking by public officers, compiling a negative list of behaviours, violators of which will be disqualified. |
| 22/2/21 | Xia Baolong says the Central Government will change the electoral system in Hong Kong to make sure it will be “patriots ruling Hong Kong”. |
| 19/2/21 | The government releases the Governance and Management of RTHK Review Report, and announces that Li Pak-chuen will replace Leung Ka-wing as the Director of Broadcasting. |
| 18/2/21 | Sinovac vaccines arrive in Hong Kong. The government announces the vaccination plan. |
| 16/2/21 | The government lifts the dine-in ban during nighttime, but customers will need to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app or register. |
| 9/2/21 | The Court of Final Appeal sets aside the High Court’s decision to grant bail to Jimmy Lai. |
| 1/2/21 | The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns. |
| 29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
| 13/1/21 | Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%. |
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
| 5/12/20 | Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat. |
| 3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
| 30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
| 26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
| 25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
| 24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
| 21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
| 19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
| 17/11/20 | Carrie Lam and Zhang Xiaoming deliver speech at the Basic Law 30th Anniversary Legal Summit. |
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
| 6/11/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/20 | Police arrests 6 democrats who allegedly violated the LegCo Powers and Privileges Ordinance. |
| 31/10/20 | Seven defendants accused of rioting on 31 August 2019 are found not guilty. |
| 29/10/20 | The fifth plenary session of the Communist Party of China Central Committee passes the 15th Five-Year Plan. |
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 30/9/20 | Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 21/9/20 | Stock price of HSBC Holdings hits 25-year low. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
| 27/8/20 | China Coast Guard intercepted a speedboat to Taiwan on August 23 and arrested 12 young Hong Kong people. |
| 26/8/20 | Police arrests 13 people who were not “people in white” for rioting in the 7.21 incident. |
| 19/8/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 6.1%. |
| 18/8/20 | The government announces the second round of Employment Support Scheme. |
| 11/8/20 | The NPCSC decides that the current Legislative Council shall continue to discharge duties for no less than one year. |
| 10/8/20 | Police searches Next Media and arrests Jimmy Lai, Agnes Chow and other people under national security law. |
| 8/8/20 | The Hong Kong government issues statement condemning US sanction on 11 Chinese or Hong Kong government officials. |
| 6/8/20 | The US expands the “Clean Network” to further limit Chinese technology firms. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that regarding people’s trust in governments, 36% of the respondents trust the HKSAR Government, 41% trust the Beijing Central Government, and 30% trust the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 14, negative 2 and negative 9 percentage points respectively. Compared to half a year ago, net trust in the Beijing Central Government has increased sharply by 27 percentage points, while that in the Taiwan Government has significantly decreased by 11 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, 62% expressed confidence in the future of China while net confidence stands at positive 34 percentage points. On the other hand, 48% and 45% expressed confidence in the future of Hong Kong and in “one country, two systems” respectively. All three confidence indictors have surged by 21 to 39 percentage points compared to half a year ago.
Regarding people’s most familiar political figures, survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Leung Chun-ying, Regina Ip, Tung Chee-hwa, Donald Tsang, Teresa Cheng, Matthew Cheung, Martin Lee and Starry Lee, followed by Joshua Wong, Sophia Chan, Tam Yiu-chung, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Lee Cheuk-yan, John Tsang, Anson Chan, Henry Tang and Agnes Chow who rank from eleventh to twentieth. Among them, the naming percentages for Carrie Lam, Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Sophia Chan and Agnes Chow have all registered historical high, whereas the naming percentage for Anson Chan has registered historical low. Compared to half a year ago, 8 political figures remain in the top 10 whilst Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Paul Chan and Teresa Cheung. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa.
