2021年2月16日
香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於二月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,018名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為31.0分，民望淨值為負52個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為31.2分，民望淨值為負31個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.2分，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.8分，民望淨值為負50個百分點。以上民望數字與一個月前分別不大。調查的實效回應比率為62.9%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.6。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 2-5/2/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,018 (包括514個固網及504個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 62.9% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.6 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1]數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2]此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,085 | 1,009 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 74.6% | 70.0% | 68.7% | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 33.5 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 29.0 | 32.0[4] | 31.0+/-2.1 | -1.0 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 21% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 18+/-2% | -3% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 66% | 69% | 69% | 72% | 69% | 70+/-3% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -45% | -50% | -51% | -54% | -49% | -52+/-5% | -3% |
[3]香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在25/11/2020進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分26.8分，特首支持率淨值負57個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字適宜與上次於9-13/11/2020進行的定期調查比較。
[4]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | 529-582 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7 | 31.2+/-2.6 | +0.5 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16+/-3% | -2% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34% | -29% | -31+/-6% | -2% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6 | 35.2+/-2.6 | +1.5 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24% | 27% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42% | 44+/-4% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20%[5] | -14% | -21+/-7% | -7% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.8+/-2.4 | +0.6 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 11+/-3% | -3% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 66% | 61+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49% | -52% | -50+/-6% | +2% |
[5]該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為31.0分，其支持率為18%，反對率為70%，民望淨值為負52個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為31.2分，支持率為16%，反對率為47%，民望淨值為負31個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.2分，支持率為23%，反對率為44%，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.8分，支持率為11%，反對率為61%，民望淨值為負50個百分點。以上民望數字與一個月前分別不大。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為4-8/1/2021，而今次調查日期則為2-5/2/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 4/2/21 | 林鄭月娥出席立法會答問大會 |
| 2/2/21 | 政府繼續封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並指或破門而入 |
| 1/2/21 | 政府封鎖多區進行強制檢測，並降低封區門檻 |
| 29/1/21 | 英國政府公布BNO簽證移民詳情；中國及香港政府宣布不再承認BNO護照 |
| 28/1/21 | 政府封鎖北角東發大廈進行強制檢測 |
| 27/1/21 | 林鄭月娥以視像形式向習近平述職 |
| 26/1/21 | 政府封鎖碧街附近進行強制檢測 |
| 24/1/21 | 佐敦封鎖區域解封，逾7,000人中找出13宗個案 |
| 23/1/21 | 政府封鎖佐敦指定區域兩日進行強制檢測 |
| 20/1/21 | 英國御用大律師David Perry辭任民主派集結案主控官 |
| 18/1/21 | 海洋公園公布改革方案 |
| 15/1/21 | 政府對油麻地區內20幢大廈居民實施強制檢測 |
| 13/1/21 | 巴西當局公布科興疫苗整體有效率為50.4% |
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為31.0分，民望淨值為負52個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為31.2分，民望淨值為負31個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為35.2分，民望淨值為負21個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.8分，民望淨值為負50個百分點。以上民望數字與一個月前分別不大。
Feb 16, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early February. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.6 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 2-5/2/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,018 (including 514 landline and 504 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.9% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.6 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 18-22/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,085 | 1,009 | 1,014 | 1,000 | 1,011 | 1,018 | -- |
| Response rate | 74.6% | 70.0% | 68.7% | 58.5% | 67.2% | 62.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 33.5 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 29.0 | 32.0[4] | 31.0+/-2.1 | -1.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 21% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 18+/-2% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 66% | 69% | 69% | 72% | 69% | 70+/-3% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -45% | -50% | -51% | -54% | -49% | -52+/-5% | -3% |
[3]POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020.
[4]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 2-5/2/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | 529-582 | -- |
| Response rate | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 62.9% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7 | 31.2+/-2.6 | +0.5 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
16% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 16+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
54% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34% | -29% | -31+/-6% | -2% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6 | 35.2+/-2.6 | +1.5 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24% | 27% | 23+/-4% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42% | 44+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20%[5] | -14% | -21+/-7% | -7% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.8+/-2.4 | +0.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 11+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 66% | 61+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49% | -52% | -50+/-6% | +2% |
[5]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 47%, giving a net popularity of negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks, approval rate 23%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks, approval rate 11%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much from a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 5 February, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 4/2/21 | Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
| 2/2/21 | The government continues to lock down multiple areas for compulsory testing and says officials may break into flats. |
| 1/2/21 | The government locks down multiple areas for compulsory testing and lowers the threshold of imposing lockdowns. |
| 29/1/21 | The British government announces details of migration using BNO visa; the Chinese and Hong Kong governments announce they will no longer recognise BNO passports. |
| 28/1/21 | The government locks down Tung Fat Building in North Point for compulsory testing. |
| 27/1/21 | Carrie Lam reports to Xi Jinping on her work via video conferencing. |
| 26/1/21 | The government locks down areas around Pitt Street for compulsory testing. |
| 24/1/21 | Lockdown in Jordan ends with 13 cases found in over 7,000 people. |
| 23/1/21 | The government locks down designated areas in Jordan for compulsory testing. |
| 20/1/21 | Queen’s Counsel David Perry steps down as prosecutor in an assembly case involving democrats. |
| 18/1/21 | Ocean Park announces its reform plan. |
| 15/1/21 | Mandatory testing is ordered for residents of 20 buildings in Yau Ma Tei. |
| 13/1/21 | Brazil authority announces that the general efficacy of Sinovac vaccine is 50.4%. |
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 31.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 31 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 21 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.8 marks and her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.
