2021年1月12日
香港民意研究所發佈會 - 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,000名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負54個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，民望淨值為負29個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為33.6分，民望淨值為負14個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.1分，民望淨值為負52個百分點。以上民望與一個月前分別不大。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值繼續全部錄得負值。對比兩個月前，只有陳肇始的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，下跌18個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為58.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.4。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 4-8/1/2021 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,000 (包括492個固網及508個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 58.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.4 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,020 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,009 | 1,014 | 1,000 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.2% | 63.9% | 74.6% | 70.0% | 68.7% | 58.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 27.2 | 30.8[4] | 33.5 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 29.0+/-2.1 | -0.7 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 19+/-2% | -- |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 74% | 69%[4] | 66% | 69% | 69% | 72+/-3% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -56% | -48%[4] | -45% | -50% | -51% | -54+/-5% | -3% |
[3] 香港民研在兩次定期評分之間，在25/11/2020進行了施政報告即時調查，結果是特首評分26.8分，特首支持率淨值負57個百分點。由於定期評分調查不設網上調查部分，而調查亦在施政報告前兩天開始，因此數字適宜與上次於9-13/11/2020進行的定期調查比較。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7+/-2.4 | +1.4 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 48+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34% | -29+/-6% | +4% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6+/-2.4 | -1.7 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24% | 27+/-3% | +3% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20%[5] | -14+/-6% | +5% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1+/-2.4 | -0.1 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 15%[5] | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 66+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49% | -52+/-6% | -2% |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值排列[6]：
| 調查日期 | 6-9/7/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 4-8/1/21 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 584-634 | 580-645 | 588-642 | 603-628 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 52.4% | 58.4% | 63.9% | 58.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 24% | 22% | 28%[7] | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 29% | 31% | 28% | 28+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -4% | -9% | -<1%[7] | -3+/-6% | -3% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 19% | 15%[7] | 21%[7] | 21+/-3% | -- |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 29% | 32% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | -17%[7] | -6%[7] | -5+/-6% | +1% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 29% | 24% | 28% | 31+/-4% | +3% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 39% | 44% | 36%[7] | 37+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -10% | -20%[7] | -9%[7] | -6+/-7% | +3% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 20% | 16% | 20%[7] | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 25% | 27% | 21%[7] | 26+/-4% | +5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -5% | -11% | -1%[7] | -7+/-6% | -6% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 23%[7] | 19% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 30% | 35% | 26%[7] | 33+/-4% | +7%[7] |
| 支持率淨值 | -7% | -16%[7] | -3%[7] | -10+/-6% | -7% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 19% | 17% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 32% | 36% | 29%[7] | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -13% | -19% | -9%[7] | -13+/-6% | -4% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 24% | 21% | 28%[7] | 25+/-4% | -4% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 43% | 48%[7] | 38%[7] | 39+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -18%[7] | -27%[7] | -10%[7] | -14+/-6% | -4% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 19% | 20% | 25%[7] | 24+/-3% | -1% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 43% | 45% | 38%[7] | 39+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -24% | -26% | -13%[7] | -15+/-6% | -2% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 23% | 19% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 41% | 50%[7] | 43%[7] | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -18% | -31%[7] | -20%[7] | -19+/-6% | +1% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 30% | 27% | 36%[7] | 25+/-4% | -10%[7] |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 34% | 49%[7] | 38%[7] | 46+/-4% | +8%[7] |
| 支持率淨值 | -4% | -21%[7] | -2%[7] | -20+/-7% | -18%[7] |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 23% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 45%[7] | 49% | 42%[7] | 44+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -24% | -26% | -19% | -21+/-6% | -2% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 26% | 21% | 24% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 59% | 63% | 55%[7] | 55+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -33% | -42% | -31%[7] | -30+/-7% | -- |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 15% | 17% | 20% | 17+/-3% | -3% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 62% | 60% | 59% | 60+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -47% | -43% | -39% | -42+/-6% | -3% |
[6] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為29.0分，其支持率為19%，反對率為72%，民望淨值為負54個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，支持率為18%，反對率為48%，民望淨值為負29個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為33.6分，支持率為27%，反對率為42%，民望淨值為負14個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.1分，支持率為14%，反對率為66%，民望淨值為負52個百分點。以上民望與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值，排名首位的是環境局局長黃錦星，然後是發展局局長黃偉綸、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、創新及科技局局長薛永恒、民政事務局局長徐英偉、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、食物及衞生局局長陳肇始、公務員事務局局長聶德權、保安局局長李家超及教育局局長楊潤雄。對比兩個月前，三位局長的淨支持率上升，九人下跌，一人不變，當中只有陳肇始的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，下跌18個百分點。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，羅致光、陳茂波、陳肇始、黃錦星、邱騰華、陳帆、聶德權、薛永恒、曾國衞、徐英偉及張建宗屬於「表現一般」，黃偉綸及許正宇屬於「表現不彰」，鄭若驊、楊潤雄及李家超屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 勞工及福利局局長羅致光（31%）
財政司司長陳茂波（27%） 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（25%） 環境局局長黃錦星（25%） 商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（25%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（24%） 公務員事務局局長聶德權（23%） 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（23%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（21%） 民政事務局局長徐英偉（19%） 政務司司長張建宗（18%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[8]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 發展局局長黃偉綸（21%，47%）
財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（20%，46%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊（66%）
教育局局長楊潤雄（60%） 保安局局長李家超（55%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[8]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（72%） |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為9-13/11/2020，而今次調查日期則為4-8/1/2021，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 6/1/21 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法拘捕53名民主派初選相關人士 |
| 5/1/21 | 馬道立指倡議司法機構改革須有細節及理據 |
| 4/1/21 | 政府宣布延長防疫措施，中小學及幼稚園暫停面授課至農曆年假 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府不排除強制市民使用「安心出行」應用程式 |
| 2/1/21 | 政府預料最快可於2月為市民接種疫苗 |
| 31/12/20 | 終審法院受理律政司上訴，黎智英還押候訊 |
| 30/12/20 | 12港人案中十人被判囚七個月至三年，兩名未成年者移交香港 |
| 28/12/20 | 大廈污水驗出新冠病毒，政府實施強制檢測 |
| 25/12/20 | 黎智英獲准保釋，禁離家受訪發文 |
| 23/12/20 | 政府宣布設立疫苗保障基金，並讓市民選擇接種哪款疫苗 |
| 21/12/20 | 英國出現變種新冠病毒，港府禁止英國客機來港 |
| 17/12/20 | 政府推出第四輪防疫抗疫基金 |
| 12/12/20 | 黎智英被加控「勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全」罪 |
| 8/12/20 | 政府再收緊防疫措施，新增禁足及強制檢測權力 |
| 5/12/20 | 國安法指定法官蘇惠德收到死亡恐嚇 |
| 3/12/20 | 黎智英被拒保釋，須還押候訊 |
| 2/12/20 | 前香港眾志成員黃之鋒、林朗彥及周庭被判囚7至13.5個月 |
| 30/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，設立熱線舉報違規行為 |
| 26/11/20 | 教育局宣布改革通識教育科 |
| 25/11/20 | 林鄭月娥發表施政報告 |
| 24/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，強制公眾場所展示安心出行二維碼 |
| 21/11/20 | 警方以涉嫌違反國安法資助分裂國家罪拘捕網台主持等3人 |
| 19/11/20 | 高等法院裁定警察不展示個人編號違反人權法 |
| 14/11/20 | 政府宣布收緊防疫措施，推行強制檢測 |
| 11/11/20 | 人大常委取消4名民主派立法會議員資格 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負54個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為30.7分，民望淨值為負29個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為33.6分，民望淨值為負14個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為23.1分，民望淨值為負52個百分點。以上民望與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值繼續全部錄得負值。對比兩個月前，只有陳肇始的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，下跌18個百分點。
January 12, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference - Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only the net approval rate of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | 18-22/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,020 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,009 | 1,014 | 1,000 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.2% | 63.9% | 74.6% | 70.0% | 68.7% | 58.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 27.2 | 30.8[4] | 33.5 | 30.6 | 29.7 | 29.0+/-2.1 | -0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 18% | 19+/-2% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 74% | 69%[4] | 66% | 69% | 69% | 72+/-3% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -56% | -48%[4] | -45% | -50% | -51% | -54+/-5% | -3% |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | 600-664 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 30.7+/-2.4 | +1.4 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 48+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34% | -29+/-6% | +4% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4[5] | 33.6+/-2.4 | -1.7 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24% | 27+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44%[5] | 42+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20%[5] | -14+/-6% | +5% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3 | 23.1+/-2.4 | -0.1 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 15%[5] | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 66+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49% | -52+/-6% | -2% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system sorted by net approval rates[6] are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 6-9/7/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 4-8/1/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 584-634 | 580-645 | 588-642 | 603-628 | -- |
| Response rate | 52.4% | 58.4% | 63.9% | 58.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 24% | 22% | 28%[7] | 25+/-4% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 29% | 31% | 28% | 28+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -4% | -9% | -<1%[7] | -3+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 19% | 15%[7] | 21%[7] | 21+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 29% | 32% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -9% | -17%[7] | -6%[7] | -5+/-6% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 29% | 24% | 28% | 31+/-4% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 39% | 44% | 36%[7] | 37+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -10% | -20%[7] | -9%[7] | -6+/-7% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 20% | 16% | 20%[7] | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | 25% | 27% | 21%[7] | 26+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -5% | -11% | -1%[7] | -7+/-6% | -6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 23%[7] | 19% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | 30% | 35% | 26%[7] | 33+/-4% | +7%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -7% | -16%[7] | -3%[7] | -10+/-6% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 19% | 17% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | 32% | 36% | 29%[7] | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -13% | -19% | -9%[7] | -13+/-6% | -4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 24% | 21% | 28%[7] | 25+/-4% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 43% | 48%[7] | 38%[7] | 39+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -18%[7] | -27%[7] | -10%[7] | -14+/-6% | -4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 19% | 20% | 25%[7] | 24+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 43% | 45% | 38%[7] | 39+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -24% | -26% | -13%[7] | -15+/-6% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 23% | 19% | 23% | 21+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | 41% | 50%[7] | 43%[7] | 40+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -31%[7] | -20%[7] | -19+/-6% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 30% | 27% | 36%[7] | 25+/-4% | -10%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 34% | 49%[7] | 38%[7] | 46+/-4% | +8%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -4% | -21%[7] | -2%[7] | -20+/-7% | -18%[7] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 21% | 23% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | 45%[7] | 49% | 42%[7] | 44+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -24% | -26% | -19% | -21+/-6% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 26% | 21% | 24% | 25+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 59% | 63% | 55%[7] | 55+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -33% | -42% | -31%[7] | -30+/-7% | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 15% | 17% | 20% | 17+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 62% | 60% | 59% | 60+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -47% | -43% | -39% | -42+/-6% | -3% |
[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks. His approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 48%, giving a net popularity of negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks, approval rate 27%, disapproval rate 42%, thus a net popularity of negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much from a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung. Compared to two months ago, the net approval rates of 3 Directorshave gone up, 9 have gone down, while 1 remains unchanged. Only that of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Sophia Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Frank Chan, Patrick Nip, Alfred Sit, Erick Tsang, Caspar Tsui and Matthew Cheung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Michael Wong and Christopher Hui can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Teresa Cheng, Kevin Yeung and John Lee fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam falls into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (31%)
FS Paul Chan (27%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan (25%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (25%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau (25%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan (24%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip (23%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit (23%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang (21%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui (19%) CS Matthew Cheung (18%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%
ranked by their approval rates[8] the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Development Michael Wong (21%, 47%)
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui (20%, 46%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| SJ Teresa Cheng (66%)
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung (60%) Secretary for Security John Lee (55%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[8] |
| CE Carrie Lam (72%) |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 2/1/21 | The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app. |
| 2/1/21 | The government expects to provide vaccinations to the public in February at the earliest. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
| 5/12/20 | Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat. |
| 3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
| 30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
| 26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
| 25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
| 24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
| 21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
| 19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 30.7 marks and his net popularity is negative 29 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 33.6 marks and his net popularity is negative 14 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.1 marks and her net popularity is negative 52 percentage points. All popularity figures cited above have not changed much in the month past.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates. Compared to two months ago, only the net approval rate of Sophia Chan has changed beyond sampling error, down by 18 percentage points.
