2020年10月27日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年10月27日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首和特區政府民望、五項核心社會指標及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據早前進行的公眾諮詢結果，五項核心社會指標的調查頻率由下半年開始增加至每個月一次，而其他近二十項的非核心社會指標、自由次指標及法治指標則暫時維持半年一次。
公報簡要
民研計劃於十月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,020名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為27.2分，民望淨值為負56個百分點，數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府表現的最新滿意率淨值為負52個百分點，信任淨值為負35個百分點，而市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負54、負61及負66個百分點，以上數字與上個月比較同樣分別不大。以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.30、4.15、3.82和3.61分。相比一個月前，全部五項指標都有所上升，當中「自由」、「安定」和「法治」指標錄得顯著升幅。民情指數方面，最新數字為56.2，較十月上旬下跌4.9點。調查的實效回應比率為62.2%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 19-22/10/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,020 (包括508個固網及512個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 62.2% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 3-6/8/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,001 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.4% | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2+/-2.1 | -1.3 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 19% | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18% | 18+/-2% | -1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 72% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72% | 74+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -54% | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56+/-5% | -3% |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 593-616 | 620-629 | 611-615 | 587-677 | 589-695 | 624-637 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | 60.9% | 61.5% | 62.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[4] | 19% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[4] | 67% | 71% | 65%[5] | 65% | 63% | 69+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -49% | -54% | -46% | -45% | -46% | -52+/-6% | -6% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[4] | 27% | 27% | 25% | 30% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| 不信任特區政府比率[4] | 63% | 59% | 61% | 59% | 55% | 61+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| 信任淨值 | -36% | -32% | -35% | -29% | -28% | -35+/-7% | -7% |
| 平均量值[4] | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[4] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,029 | 1,020 | 1,013 | 1,020 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | 60.9% | 61.5% | 62.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[6] | 12% | 12% | 15%[7] | 12%[7] | 13% | 14+/-2% | +1% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[6] | 73% | 66%[7] | 66% | 70% | 64%[7] | 67+/-3% | +3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -61% | -54%[7] | -51% | -57%[7] | -51% | -54+/-5% | -2% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.9[7] | 2.1[7] | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[6] | 9% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 9+/-2% | -2% |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[6] | 75% | 64%[7] | 64% | 71%[7] | 69% | 70+/-3% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -66% | -52%[7] | -52% | -61%[7] | -57% | -61+/-4% | -4% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.9[7] | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.0[7] | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[6] | 3%[7] | 3% | 8%[7] | 9% | 9% | 9+/-2% | -- |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[6] | 88%[7] | 84%[7] | 78%[7] | 77% | 73%[7] | 75+/-3% | +2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -86%[7] | -81%[7] | -70%[7] | -68% | -65% | -66+/-4% | -2% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.4[7] | 1.5[7] | 1.6[7] | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7+/-0.1 | -- |
[6] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為27.2分，其支持率為18%，反對率為74%，民望淨值為負56個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為17%，不滿率上升6個百分點至69%，滿意率淨值為負52個百分點，平均量值為2.0分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新的信任比率為26%，不信任比率上升6個百分點至61%，信任淨值為負35個百分點，平均量值為2.3分，即整體上介乎「幾不信任」及「一半半」之間。
至於市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意程度，最新滿意率分別為14%、9%及9%，而滿意淨值就分別為負54、負61及負66個百分點。民生狀況和經濟狀況的平均量值均為2.0，即整體上接近「幾不滿」；政治狀況的平均量值為1.7，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「好不滿」之間。以上數字與上個月比較分別不大。
核心社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[8] | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 5.58[9] | 4.84[9] | 4.74 | 4.13[9] | 4.60+/-0.25 | +0.48[9] |
| 繁榮指標 | 5.45[9] | 5.35 | 4.19[9] | 4.15 | 4.30+/-0.20 | +0.15 |
| 安定指標 | 4.44[9] | 4.12[9] | 3.76[9] | 3.63 | 4.15+/-0.21 | +0.51[9] |
| 法治指標 | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41[9] | 3.82+/-0.24 | +0.40[9] |
| 民主指標 | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70[9] | 3.49 | 3.61+/-0.27 | +0.12 |
[8] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.30、4.15、3.82和3.61分。相比一個月前，「自由」、「安定」和「法治」指標錄得顯著升幅。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：56.2 (-4.9) | 政評數值：61.2 (-4.6) | 社評數值：53.2 (-4.2) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 6/8/20 | 20/8/20 | 4/9/20 | 24/9/20 | 8/10/20 | 22/10/20 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 58.5 | 57.6 | 57.9 | 60.8 | 61.1 | 56.2 | -4.9 |
| 政評數值 | 61.6 | 64.8 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.8 | 61.2 | -4.6 |
| 特首評分 | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | -1.3 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -54% | -46% | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56% | -3% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.2[10] | 2.4 | 2.4[10] | 2.4 | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| 社評數值 | 56.9[10] | 52.2 | 52.2[10] | 57.4 | 57.4[10] | 53.2 | -4.2 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 1.6[10] | 1.7 | 1.7[10] | 1.7 | 1.7[10] | 1.7 | -- |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較十月上旬下跌4.9點至56.2，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌4.6點至61.2，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則下跌4.2點至53.2。兩者均可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為31/8-4/9/2020，而今次調查日期則為19-22/10/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 21/10/20 | 國泰航空大規模裁員，停運國泰港龍 |
| 20/10/20 | 政府宣布放寬防疫措施 |
| 15/10/20 | 香港與新加坡就「航空旅遊氣泡」達成原則上協議 |
| 14/10/20 | 習近平於深圳發表演說 |
| 12/10/20 | 林鄭月娥押後施政報告 |
| 10/10/20 | 警方以涉嫌協助現被關押深圳的12名港人偷渡拘捕9人 |
| 6/10/20 | 教育局以專業失德為由取消一名小學教師註冊 |
| 1/10/20 | 警方於銅鑼灣等各區拘捕最少86名示威者 |
| 30/9/20 | 駱惠寧、董建華及香港高官慶祝中華人民共和國成立七十一周年 |
| 29/9/20 | 民主派公布立法會議員去留問題民意調查結果 |
| 22/9/20 | 警方修改《警察通例》下「傳媒代表」定義 |
| 21/9/20 | 匯豐控股股價創25年新低 |
| 14/9/20 | 178萬人參與普及社區檢測計劃，發現32宗新個案 |
| 12/9/20 | 12名香港青年被扣押深圳逾兩周，被捕人士家屬召開記者會 |
| 11/9/20 | 死因庭陪審團裁定陳彥霖死因存疑 |
| 10/9/20 | 警方以在買賣壹傳媒股票時涉嫌詐騙及洗黑錢拘捕15人 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為27.2分，民望淨值為負56個百分點，數字與半個月前分別不大。特區政府表現的最新滿意率淨值為負52個百分點，信任淨值為負35個百分點，而市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負54、負61及負66個百分點，以上數字與上個月比較同樣分別不大。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「安定」、「法治」和「民主」，得分分別為4.60、4.30、4.15、3.82和3.61分。相比一個月前，全部五項指標都有所上升，當中「自由」、「安定」和「法治」指標錄得顯著升幅。
民情指數方面，最新數字為56.2，較十月上旬下跌4.9點。
Oct 27, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on October 27, 2020
POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government,
five core social indicators and Public Sentiment Index
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the survey of the five core social indicators has been increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late October. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.2 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 52 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 35 percentage points. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 54, negative 61 and negative 66 percentage points respectively. All these figures stay more or less the same as last month. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.30, 4.15, 3.82 and 3.61 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of all five indicators have increased while those of “freedom”, “stability” and “rule of law” have increased significantly. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 56.2, down by 4.9 points from early October. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 19-22/10/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,020 (including 508 landline and 512 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 62.2% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 3-6/8/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,001 | 1,020 | 1,007 | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.4% | 60.9% | 58.4% | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2+/-2.1 | -1.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
19% | 24%[3] | 21% | 17% | 18% | 18+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
72% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 72% | 74+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -54% | -46%[3] | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56+/-5% | -3% |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 593-616 | 620-629 | 611-615 | 587-677 | 589-695 | 624-637 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | 60.9% | 61.5% | 62.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 19% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 67% | 71% | 65%[5] | 65% | 63% | 69+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -49% | -54% | -46% | -45% | -46% | -52+/-6% | -6% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 27% | 27% | 25% | 30% | 27% | 26+/-4% | -- |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 63% | 59% | 61% | 59% | 55% | 61+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| Net trust | -36% | -32% | -35% | -29% | -28% | -35+/-7% | -7% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 17-20/8/20 | 21-24/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,029 | 1,020 | 1,013 | 1,020 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | 60.9% | 61.5% | 62.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
12% | 12% | 15%[7] | 12%[7] | 13% | 14+/-2% | +1% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
73% | 66%[7] | 66% | 70% | 64%[7] | 67+/-3% | +3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -61% | -54%[7] | -51% | -57%[7] | -51% | -54+/-5% | -2% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.9[7] | 2.1[7] | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
9% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 9+/-2% | -2% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
75% | 64%[7] | 64% | 71%[7] | 69% | 70+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -66% | -52%[7] | -52% | -61%[7] | -57% | -61+/-4% | -4% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.9[7] | 2.2[7] | 2.1 | 2.0[7] | 2.1 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
3%[7] | 3% | 8%[7] | 9% | 9% | 9+/-2% | -- |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
88%[7] | 84%[7] | 78%[7] | 77% | 73%[7] | 75+/-3% | +2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -86%[7] | -81%[7] | -70%[7] | -68% | -65% | -66+/-4% | -2% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.4[7] | 1.5[7] | 1.6[7] | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7+/-0.1 | -- |
[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.2 marks. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 74%, giving a net popularity of negative 56 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 17%, whereas 69% were dissatisfied, up by 6 percentage points since last time, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 52 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 26% of the respondents expressed trust, 61% expressed distrust, up by 6 percentage points since last time. The net trust value is negative 35 percentage points. The mean score is 2.3, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 14%, 9% and 9% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 54, negative 61 and negative 66 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of livelihood condition and economic condition are both 2.0, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.7, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. The figures above are more or less the same as last month.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[8] | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 5.58[9] | 4.84[9] | 4.74 | 4.13[9] | 4.60+/-0.25 | +0.48[9] |
| Degree of prosperity | 5.45[9] | 5.35 | 4.19[9] | 4.15 | 4.30+/-0.20 | +0.15 |
| Degree of stability | 4.44[9] | 4.12[9] | 3.76[9] | 3.63 | 4.15+/-0.21 | +0.51[9] |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80 | 3.41[9] | 3.82+/-0.24 | +0.40[9] |
| Degree of democracy | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70[9] | 3.49 | 3.61+/-0.27 | +0.12 |
[8] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.30, 4.15, 3.82 and 3.61 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “freedom”, “stability” and “rule of law” have increased significantly.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 56.2 (-4.9) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 61.2 (-4.6) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 53.2 (-4.2) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 6/8/20 | 20/8/20 | 4/9/20 | 24/9/20 | 8/10/20 | 22/10/20 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 58.5 | 57.6 | 57.9 | 60.8 | 61.1 | 56.2 | -4.9 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 61.6 | 64.8 | 65.2 | 65.2 | 65.8 | 61.2 | -4.6 |
| Rating of CE | 26.9 | 26.8 | 28.1 | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | -1.3 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -54% | -46% | -48% | -53% | -53% | -56% | -3% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.2[10] | 2.4 | 2.4[10] | 2.4 | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | -0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 56.9[10] | 52.2 | 52.2[10] | 57.4 | 57.4[10] | 53.2 | -4.2 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 1.6[10] | 1.7 | 1.7[10] | 1.7 | 1.7[10] | 1.7 | -- |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | 0.33[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 56.2, down by 4.9 points from early October. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 4.6 points to 61.2, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 4.2 points to 53.2. They can both be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 31 August to 4 September, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 22 October, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/10/20 | Cathay Pacific announces massive lay-offs and closes Cathay Dragon. |
| 20/10/20 | The government relaxes anti-epidemic measures. |
| 15/10/20 | Hong Kong and Singapore reach an in-principle agreement to establish a bilateral Air Travel Bubble. |
| 14/10/20 | Xi Jinping delivers a speech in Shenzhen. |
| 12/10/20 | Carrie Lam postpones Policy Address. |
| 10/10/20 | Police arrests 9 people on suspicion of helping the 12 Hong Kong people now being detained in Shenzhen flee Hong Kong. |
| 6/10/20 | The Education Bureau deregisters a primary school teacher for professional misconduct. |
| 1/10/20 | Police arrests at least 86 protesters in various districts including Causeway Bay. |
| 30/9/20 | Luo Huining, Tung Chee-hwa and principal officials of Hong Kong celebrates the 71st anniversary of the founding of the PRC. |
| 29/9/20 | Democrats announce survey results on whether Legislative Councillors should stay or go. |
| 22/9/20 | Police changes the definition of “media representatives” under the Police General Orders. |
| 21/9/20 | Stock price of HSBC Holdings hits 25-year low. |
| 14/9/20 | The Universal Community Testing Programme ends with 1.78 million people participated and 32 new cases found. |
| 12/9/20 | Twelve Hong Kong youngsters have been detained in Shenzhen for over two weeks. Their family members hold a press conference. |
| 11/9/20 | The jury in the Coroner’s Court returns an open verdict in the death of Chan Yin-lam. |
| 10/9/20 | Police arrests 15 people on suspicion of defrauding and money laundering by trading Next Digital shares. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 27.2 marks. Her net popularity is negative 56 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 52 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 35 percentage points. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 54, negative 61 and negative 66 percentage points respectively. All these figures stay more or less the same as last month.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.60, 4.30, 4.15, 3.82 and 3.61 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of all five indicators have increased while those of “freedom”, “stability” and “rule of law” have increased significantly.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 56.2, down by 4.9 points from early October.
