2020年8月18日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年8月18日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放最新社會指標以及市民最熟悉政治人物排名榜
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據早前進行的公眾諮詢結果，五項核心社會指標的調查頻率會由下半年開始增加至每個月一次，而其他近二十項的非核心社會指標、自由次指標及法治指標則暫定維持半年一次。
公報簡要
民研計劃於八月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。最新結果顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低排列，分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」、「安定」和「民主」。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均創1997年有紀錄以來新低。市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、張建宗、梁振英、黃之鋒、董建華、葉劉淑儀、楊岳橋、曾蔭權、李慧琼和李柱銘，當中林鄭月娥、張建宗、黃之鋒和楊岳橋的提名比率創新高。對比半年前，不分民望高低，6位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄跌出十大，並由張建宗、黃之鋒、楊岳橋和李慧琼取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥、梁振英、曾蔭權、董建華和葉劉淑儀，都是屬於巿民長期熟悉的本地政治人物。調查的實效回應比率為64.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.26。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 3-6/8/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括500個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 64.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，評分誤差不超過+/-0.26 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
社會指標
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[5] | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58[6] | 4.84[6] | 4.74+/-0.26 | -0.10 |
| 繁榮指標 | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45[6] | 5.35 | 4.19+/-0.20 | -1.16[6] |
| 法治指標 | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80+/-0.24 | -0.34 |
| 安定指標 | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44[6] | 4.12[6] | 3.76+/-0.22 | -0.36[6] |
| 民主指標 | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70+/-0.26 | -0.67[6] |
[3] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」、「安定」和「民主」，得分分別為4.74、4.19、3.80、3.76和3.70分。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
市民最熟悉政治人物
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的香港在世政治人物。以下是最新調查中前二十名的結果[5]：
| 調查日期 | 18-20/9/18 | 29/1-8/2/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/20 | |||||
| 樣本數目[6] | 552 | 537 | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | |||||
| 回應比率 | 55.6% | 63.0% | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | |||||
| 最新結果 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 | 比率 | 排名 |
| 林鄭月娥 | 38% | 1 | 35% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61+/-4% | 1 |
| 張建宗 | 7% | 15 | 6% | 15 | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23+/-3% | 2 |
| 梁振英 | 26% | 3 | 26% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22+/-3% | 3 |
| 黃之鋒 | 4% | 31 | 4% | 21 | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19+/-3% | 4 |
| 董建華 | 23% | 4 | 29% | 3 | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18+/-3% | 5 |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| 楊岳橋 | 4% | 27 | 5% | 18 | 12% | 10 | 10% | 12 | 15+/-3% | 7 |
| 曾蔭權 | 28% | 2 | 33% | 2 | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13+/-3% | 8 |
| 李慧琼 | 6% | 22 | 6% | 14 | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12+/-3% | 9 |
| 李柱銘 | 18% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12+/-3% | 10 |
| 陳茂波 | 9% | 12 | 11% | 10 | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11+/-3% | 11 |
| 鄭若驊 | 2% | 45 | 3% | 30 | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11+/-2% | 12 |
| 譚耀宗 | 6% | 19 | 2% | 39 | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10+/-2% | 13 |
| 曾鈺成 | 16% | 7 | 8% | 12 | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9+/-2% | 14 |
| 陳方安生 | 8% | 14 | 11% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9+/-2% | 15 |
| 梁國雄 | 19% | 5 | 12% | 8 | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8+/-2% | 16 |
| 鄧炳強 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3% | 39 | 8+/-2% | 17 |
| 何君堯 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 12% | 11 | 3% | 34 | 8+/-2% | 18 |
| 陳肇始 | -- | -- | 2% | 45 | 1% | -- | 7% | 19 | 7+/-2% | 19 |
| 鄺俊宇 | 1% | -- | 2% | 46 | 15% | 7 | 10% | 11 | 6+/-2% | 20 |
[5] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。每次調查中，排名第50位以後則視作沒有上榜。
[6] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
調查結果發現，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、張建宗、梁振英、黃之鋒、董建華、葉劉淑儀、楊岳橋、曾蔭權、李慧琼和李柱銘，然後第十一至二十名分別為陳茂波、鄭若驊、譚耀宗、曾鈺成、陳方安生、梁國雄、鄧炳強、何君堯、陳肇始和鄺俊宇。當中林鄭月娥、張建宗、黃之鋒、楊岳橋、鄭若驊、鄧炳強和陳肇始的提名比率創新高。
市民最熟悉政治人物調查的作用，在於以該等人物在巿民心目中熟悉程度的起跌，顯示政治生態的改變。對比半年前，不分民望高低，6位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄跌出十大，並由張建宗、黃之鋒、楊岳橋和李慧琼取代。
須要註明，「巿民最熟悉政治人物」的排名方法是以被訪者在沒有提示下說出的政治人物計，是量度知名度的方法之一，與支持度無關。換言之，知名度排名很高的政治人物並不一定是最受歡迎的政治人物，而知名度排名偏低的政治人物，亦可能會在有提示的知名度調查中得到不同的排名。但無論如何，能夠在沒有提示的調查中脫穎而出者，肯定是巿民最熟悉的政治人物。
以下則是累積過去10次大約跨越5年「巿民最熟悉政治人物」調查的部分結果：
| 總結排名 | 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20 | 3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20 | ||
| 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[7] | 政治人物 | 10次調查平均排名[7] | |
| 1 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.8 | 林鄭月娥 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 梁振英 | 2.3 | 梁振英 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 曾蔭權 | 3.8 | 曾蔭權 | 4.2 |
| 4 | 董建華 | 5.3 | 董建華 | 5.0 |
| 5 | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.4[8] | 葉劉淑儀 | 6.2 |
| 6 | 梁國雄 | 6.4[8] | 梁國雄 | 7.5 |
| 7 | 曾俊華 | 7.1 | 曾鈺成 | 8.7 |
| 8 | 曾鈺成 | 7.6 | 李柱銘 | 9.3 |
| 9 | 李柱銘 | 9.8 | 曾俊華 | 9.4 |
| 10 | 陳方安生 | 11.1 | 陳方安生 | 11.5 |
| 11 | 黃毓民 | 15.7 | 李慧琼 | 13.6 |
| 12 | 李慧琼 | 16.4 | 陳茂波 | 17.1 |
| 13 | 唐英年 | 16.7 | 楊岳橋 | 18.3[8] |
| 14 | 陳茂波 | 17.7 | 黃毓民 | 18.3[8] |
| 15 | 田北辰 | 18.9 | 唐英年 | 18.4 |
| 16 | 田北俊 | 21.1 | 田北辰 | 20.7 |
| 17 | 劉慧卿 | 22.4 | 張建宗 | 21.4 |
| 18 | 楊岳橋 | 22.6 | 黃之鋒 | 23.6 |
| 19 | 范徐麗泰 | 22.7 | 范徐麗泰 | 23.7[8] |
| 20 | 張建宗 | 24.5 | 田北俊 | 23.7[8] |
[7] 每次調查中，排名第50位以後或者沒有上榜者，在計算平均排名時，皆作第50名論。
[8] 10次調查平均排名相同。
總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥的總結排名位列榜首，然後是梁振英、曾蔭權和董建華。總結排名第五至第十的則是葉劉淑儀、梁國雄、曾鈺成、李柱銘、曾俊華和陳方安生。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為3-6/2/2020，而今次調查日期則為3-6/8/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 1/8/20 | 國家衛生健康委員會首批人員扺港 |
| 31/7/20 | 政府押後立法會選舉一年 |
| 30/7/20 | 12名民主派人士被裁定立法會選舉提名無效 |
| 29/7/20 | 全日禁止堂食規定實施，不少人於街邊用膳 |
| 28/7/20 | 香港大學校務委員會決定即時解僱戴耀廷 |
| 27/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至2人並宣布全日禁止堂食 |
| 24/7/20 | 美國國務卿蓬佩奧發表對華政策演說，中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館 |
| 19/7/20 | 政府宣布部分公務員在家工作，市民在室內公共場所必須戴口罩 |
| 15/7/20 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港自治法案》 |
| 13/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至4人並禁止晚市堂食 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 16/6/20 | 政府放寬限聚令至50人 |
| 12/6/20 | 中央政府批評有組織發動罷課公投 |
| 9/6/20 | 政府宣布向國泰航空注資273億免其倒閉 |
| 8/6/20 | 政府公布發放一萬元現金安排 |
| 8/6/20 | 張曉明在基本法頒布30周年網上研討會發表演說 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 3/6/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 29/5/20 | 特朗普公布有關中國及香港的新措施，並指中國以「一國一制」取代「一國兩制」 |
| 27/5/20 | 反國歌法及國安法示威中逾360人被捕 |
| 24/5/20 | 反國安法遊行於港島舉行，逾180人被捕 |
| 21/5/20 | 全國人大將審議港區國安法 |
| 19/5/20 | 香港失業率升至5.2% |
| 18/5/20 | 李慧琼當選立法會內會主席 |
| 15/5/20 | 監警會發表報告指沒有任何證據顯示8.31太子站事件中有人死亡 |
| 11/5/20 | 海洋公園申請政府54億注資免倒閉 |
| 8/5/20 | 立法會內會發生衝突，11名民主派議員被逐離場 |
| 3/5/20 | 政府將派發可重用口罩 |
| 21/4/20 | 政府公布多名新局長任命 |
| 18/4/20 | 李柱銘、黎智英等15名民主派人士被捕 |
| 15/4/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧指香港要維護國家安全 |
| 14/4/20 | 林鄭月娥指港澳辦及中聯辨沒有干預香港事務 |
| 13/4/20 | 港澳辦及中聯辦批評立法會議員郭榮鏗 |
| 9/4/20 | 政府推出800億「保就業」措施 |
| 8/4/20 | 政府宣布逾1,300億紓困措施抗疫 |
| 1/4/20 | 政府宣布麻雀館、卡拉OK等娛樂場所須暫停營業 |
| 27/3/20 | 政府宣布禁4人以上公眾聚會 |
| 23/3/20 | 政府宣布本地酒吧及食肆禁賣酒 |
| 23/3/20 | 政府禁止非港人由機場入境 |
| 17/3/20 | 政府宣布所有海外國家來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 15/3/20 | 政府宣布由英美來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 4/3/20 | 政府首批包機接回滯留湖北港人 |
| 28/2/20 | 警方拘捕黎智英、李卓人及楊森 |
| 26/2/20 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 19/2/20 | 鑽石公主號郵輪首批港人乘坐包機回港 |
| 13/2/20 | 夏寶龍被委任為港澳辦主任 |
| 7/2/20 | 經中國大陸來港人士需隔離14日措施生效 |
數據分析
調查顯示，以0至10分評價，市民對全部五項核心社會指標的評分均低於5分，由高至低排列，分別是「自由」、「繁榮」、「法治」、「安定」和「民主」。相比一個月前，「繁榮」、「安定」和「民主」指標錄得顯著跌幅。同時，全部五項指標均創1997年有紀錄以來新低。
市民最熟悉政治人物方面，最多被訪者提及的首十名政治人物分別為林鄭月娥、張建宗、梁振英、黃之鋒、董建華、葉劉淑儀、楊岳橋、曾蔭權、李慧琼和李柱銘，當中林鄭月娥、張建宗、黃之鋒和楊岳橋的提名比率創新高。對比半年前，不分民望高低，6位政治人物能夠蟬聯十大，陳方安生、曾俊華、曾鈺成和梁國雄跌出十大，並由張建宗、黃之鋒、楊岳橋和李慧琼取代。總結過去10次調查的結果，林鄭月娥、梁振英、曾蔭權、董建華和葉劉淑儀，都是屬於巿民長期熟悉的本地政治人物。
Aug 18, 2020
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Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the survey of the 5 core social indicators will be increased to once a month from the second half of this year, while the remaining 20 or so non-core social indicators, freedom and rule of law sub-indicators will remain to be run on a half-yearly cycle.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Latest results show that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997. As for people’s most familiar political figures, the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have registered their new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar local political figures in the long run. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of ratings is +/-0.26 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 3-6/8/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 64.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.26 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[5] | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | 584-619 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | 64.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58[6] | 4.84[6] | 4.74+/-0.26 | -0.10 |
| Degree of prosperity | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45[6] | 5.35 | 4.19+/-0.20 | -1.16[6] |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45 | 4.14 | 3.80+/-0.24 | -0.34 |
| Degree of stability | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44[6] | 4.12[6] | 3.76+/-0.22 | -0.36[6] |
| Degree of democracy | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61 | 4.37 | 3.70+/-0.26 | -0.67[6] |
[3] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.74, 4.19, 3.80, 3.76 and 3.70 respectively. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997.
People’s Most Familiar Political Figures
As for people’s most familiar political figures, in the survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 Hong Kong political figures currently alive whom they knew best. Results of the top 20 figures in the latest survey are summarized below[5]:
| Date of survey | 18-20/9/18 | 29/1-8/2/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 3-6/2/20 | 3-6/8/20 | |||||
| Sample size[6] | 552 | 537 | 560 | 1,001 | 647 | |||||
| Response rate | 55.6% | 63.0% | 62.8% | 77.6% | 64.4% | |||||
| Latest findings | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank | % | Rank |
| Carrie Lam | 38% | 1 | 35% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 31% | 1 | 61+/-4% | 1 |
| Matthew Cheung | 7% | 15 | 6% | 15 | 9% | 15 | 8% | 17 | 23+/-3% | 2 |
| Leung Chun-ying | 26% | 3 | 26% | 4 | 25% | 3 | 21% | 4 | 22+/-3% | 3 |
| Joshua Wong | 4% | 31 | 4% | 21 | 7% | 21 | 8% | 18 | 19+/-3% | 4 |
| Tung Chee-hwa | 23% | 4 | 29% | 3 | 27% | 2 | 25% | 3 | 18+/-3% | 5 |
| Regina Ip | 15% | 8 | 13% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 17+/-3% | 6 |
| Alvin Yeung | 4% | 27 | 5% | 18 | 12% | 10 | 10% | 12 | 15+/-3% | 7 |
| Donald Tsang | 28% | 2 | 33% | 2 | 21% | 4 | 27% | 2 | 13+/-3% | 8 |
| Starry Lee | 6% | 22 | 6% | 14 | 9% | 16 | 9% | 13 | 12+/-3% | 9 |
| Martin Lee | 18% | 6 | 14% | 5 | 15% | 8 | 13% | 6 | 12+/-3% | 10 |
| Paul Chan | 9% | 12 | 11% | 10 | 8% | 19 | 9% | 14 | 11+/-3% | 11 |
| Teresa Cheng | 2% | 45 | 3% | 30 | 6% | 23 | 6% | 21 | 11+/-2% | 12 |
| Tam Yiu-chung | 6% | 19 | 2% | 39 | 2% | -- | 1% | -- | 10+/-2% | 13 |
| Jasper Tsang | 16% | 7 | 8% | 12 | 12% | 12 | 12% | 9 | 9+/-2% | 14 |
| Anson Chan | 8% | 14 | 11% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 12% | 7 | 9+/-2% | 15 |
| Leung Kwok-hung | 19% | 5 | 12% | 8 | 8% | 17 | 10% | 10 | 8+/-2% | 16 |
| Chris Tang | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 3% | 39 | 8+/-2% | 17 |
| Junius Ho | -- | -- | -- | -- | 12% | 11 | 3% | 34 | 8+/-2% | 18 |
| Sophia Chan | -- | -- | 2% | 45 | 1% | -- | 7% | 19 | 7+/-2% | 19 |
| Roy Kwong | 1% | -- | 2% | 46 | 15% | 7 | 10% | 11 | 6+/-2% | 20 |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered. For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th would be considered not on the list.
[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
Survey results show that the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee, followed by Paul Chan, Teresa Cheng, Tam Yiu-chung, Jasper Tsang, Anson Chan, Leung Kwok-hung, Chris Tang, Junius Ho, Sophia Chan and Roy Kwong as rank eleventh to twentieth respectively. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung, Teresa Cheng, Chris Tang and Sophia Chan have registered new record high.
The purpose of the “people’s most familiar political figures” survey is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee.
It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
| Overall rank | 2-5/11/15──3-6/2/20 | 3-5/5/16──3-6/8/20 | ||
| Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[7] |
Political figures | Average rank for 10 surveys[7] |
|
| 1 | Carrie Lam | 1.8 | Carrie Lam | 1.8 |
| 2 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.3 | Leung Chun-ying | 2.5 |
| 3 | Donald Tsang | 3.8 | Donald Tsang | 4.2 |
| 4 | Tung Chee-hwa | 5.3 | Tung Chee-hwa | 5.0 |
| 5 | Regina Ip | 6.4[8] | Regina Ip | 6.2 |
| 6 | Leung Kwok-hung | 6.4[8] | Leung Kwok-hung | 7.5 |
| 7 | John Tsang | 7.1 | Jasper Tsang | 8.7 |
| 8 | Jasper Tsang | 7.6 | Martin Lee | 9.3 |
| 9 | Martin Lee | 9.8 | John Tsang | 9.4 |
| 10 | Anson Chan | 11.1 | Anson Chan | 11.5 |
| 11 | Wong Yuk-man | 15.7 | Starry Lee | 13.6 |
| 12 | Starry Lee | 16.4 | Paul Chan | 17.1 |
| 13 | Henry Tang | 16.7 | Alvin Yeung | 18.3[8] |
| 14 | Paul Chan | 17.7 | Wong Yuk-man | 18.3[8] |
| 15 | Michael Tien | 18.9 | Henry Tang | 18.4 |
| 16 | James Tien | 21.1 | Michael Tien | 20.7 |
| 17 | Emily Lau | 22.4 | Matthew Cheung | 21.4 |
| 18 | Alvin Yeung | 22.6 | Joshua Wong | 23.6 |
| 19 | Rita Fan | 22.7 | Rita Fan | 23.7[8] |
| 20 | Matthew Cheung | 24.5 | James Tien | 23.7[8] |
[7] For each survey, those who ranked beyond the 50th and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.
[8] The average ranks for 10 surveys are identical.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam has the highest overall rank, followed by Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa, while Regina Ip, Leung Kwok-hung, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, John Tsang and Anson Chan rank 5th to 10th overall.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 1/8/20 | The first team from the National Health Commission arrives in Hong Kong. |
| 31/7/20 | The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year. |
| 30/7/20 | Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated. |
| 29/7/20 | All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets. |
| 28/7/20 | HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect. |
| 27/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban. |
| 24/7/20 | US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu. |
| 19/7/20 | The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places. |
| 15/7/20 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 13/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 16/6/20 | The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people. |
| 12/6/20 | The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott. |
| 9/6/20 | The government announces investment of $27.3 billion in Cathay Pacific Airways to avoid its collapse. |
| 8/6/20 | The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout. |
| 8/6/20 | Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 3/6/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 29/5/20 | Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system. |
| 27/5/20 | Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law. |
| 24/5/20 | People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested. |
| 21/5/20 | National People’s Congress will deliberate on national security law in Hong Kong. |
| 19/5/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 5.2%. |
| 18/5/20 | Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 15/5/20 | Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31. |
| 11/5/20 | Ocean Park seeks $5.4 billion government bailout to avoid shut down. |
| 8/5/20 | Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 3/5/20 | The government will distribute reusable masks. |
| 21/4/20 | The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 14/4/20 | Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs. |
| 13/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office criticize Legislative Councillor Dennis Kwok. |
| 9/4/20 | The government launches a subsidy scheme involving $80 billion to keep workers in employment. |
| 8/4/20 | The government announces relief measures involving over $130 billion to combat the pandemic. |
| 1/4/20 | The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close. |
| 27/3/20 | The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people. |
| 23/3/20 | The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol. |
| 23/3/20 | The government announces ban on non-residents arrivals at the airport from entering Hong Kong. |
| 17/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 15/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 4/3/20 | The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 26/2/20 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 19/2/20 | The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight. |
| 13/2/20 | Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office. |
| 7/2/20 | The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect. |
Data Analysis
Survey shows that on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators are lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “rule of law”, “stability” and “democracy”. Compared with a month ago, ratings of “prosperity”, “stability” and “democracy” have dropped significantly. Meanwhile, all five indicators have registered all-time record lows since the survey began in 1997.
As for people’s most familiar political figures, the 10 most frequently named political figures were Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Leung Chun-ying, Joshua Wong, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Alvin Yeung, Donald Tsang, Starry Lee and Martin Lee. Among them, the percentages of respondents that mentioned Carrie Lam, Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong and Alvin Yeung have registered their new record high. Compared to half a year ago, regardless of their popularities, 6 political figures remain in the top 10. Anson Chan, John Tsang, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung have fallen out of the top 10 list and replaced by Matthew Cheung, Joshua Wong, Alvin Yeung and Starry Lee. Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Carrie Lam, Leung Chun-ying, Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Regina Ip are people’s most familiar local political figures in the long run.
