2020年8月11日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年8月11日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及司長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
根據我們早前進行的公眾諮詢結果，局長民望調查的頻率會由下半年開始酌量減少。因此今天的公報只有特首及三位司長的民望數字。
公報簡要
民研計劃於八月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。最新結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為26.9分，民望淨值為負54個百分點，數字與半個月前分別不大。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負39個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.0分，民望淨值為負20個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為22.2分，民望淨值為負53個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。調查的實效回應比率為64.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 3-6/8/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括500個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率 | ： | 64.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[2] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | 1,029 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | 62.5% | 64.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 | 26.9+/-2.1 | -2.0 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 18%[3] | 19+/-2% | -- |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 72+/-3% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53% | -54+/-5% | -- |
[3] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 27/2-3/3/20 | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 646-675 | 672-685 | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.1% | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 26.1[4] | 29.5[4] | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0+/-2.4 | -0.9 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 13% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 16+/-3% | -3% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 56% | 50%[4] | 49% | 51% | 52% | 55+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -42% | -34%[4] | -32% | -32% | -33% | -39+/-6% | -6% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 32.3[4] | 32.4 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0+/-2.5 | -0.8 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 22%[4] | 23% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 26+/-4% | -2% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 50%[4] | 49% | 49% | 47% | 44% | 46+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -28%[4] | -26% | -24% | -21% | -16% | -20+/-7% | -4% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 16.7 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2+/-2.7 | +1.9 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 15+/-3% | +4%[4] |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 71% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 68% | 67+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -64% | -63% | -61% | -61% | -57% | -53+/-7% | +5% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為26.9分，其支持率為19%，反對率為72%，民望淨值為負54個百分點，全部數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.0分，支持率為16%，反對率為55%，民望淨值為負39個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.0分，支持率為26%，反對率為46%，民望淨值為負20個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為22.2分，支持率為15%，反對率為67%，民望淨值為負53個百分點。司長的民望數字與一個月前分別不大。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為6-9/7/2020，而今次調查日期則為3-6/8/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 6/8/20 | 香港新增91宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 5/8/20 | 香港新增82宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 3/8/20 | 香港新增80宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 1/8/20 | 國家衛生健康委員會首批人員扺港 |
| 31/7/20 | 政府押後立法會選舉一年 |
| 30/7/20 | 12名民主派人士被裁定立法會選舉提名無效 |
| 29/7/20 | 全日禁止堂食規定實施，不少人於街邊用膳 |
| 28/7/20 | 香港大學校務委員會決定即時解僱戴耀廷 |
| 27/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至2人並宣布全日禁止堂食 |
| 26/7/20 | 香港新增103宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 25/7/20 | 香港新增126宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案，逾百名確診者未能安排即時送院 |
| 24/7/20 | 美國國務卿蓬佩奧發表對華政策演說，中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館 |
| 23/7/20 | 香港新增111宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 22/7/20 | 美國要求中國72小時內關閉駐休斯敦總領事館 |
| 22/7/20 | 香港新增105宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 21/7/20 | 香港新增58宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 20/7/20 | 香港新增66宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 19/7/20 | 政府宣布部分公務員在家工作，市民在室內公共場所必須戴口罩 |
| 18/7/20 | 香港新增60宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 17/7/20 | 香港新增50宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 16/7/20 | 香港新增63宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 15/7/20 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港自治法案》 |
| 14/7/20 | 香港新增40宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 13/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至4人並禁止晚市堂食 |
| 12/7/20 | 香港新增30宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 11/7/20 | 香港新增16宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 10/7/20 | 香港新增32宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 9/7/20 | 香港新增34宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 8/7/20 | 香港新增19宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/7/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/7/20 | 政府刊憲公布國安法實施細則 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為26.9分，民望淨值為負54個百分點，數字與半個月前分別不大。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負39個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.0分，民望淨值為負20個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為22.2分，民望淨值為負53個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
Aug 11, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on August 11, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux will be thinned out from the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early August. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 3-6/8/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 64.4% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | 1,029 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | 62.5% | 64.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 | 26.9+/-2.1 | -2.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 18%[3] | 19+/-2% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 72+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53% | -54+/-5% | -- |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 27/2-3/3/20 | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 646-675 | 672-685 | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | 503-655 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.1% | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 64.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 26.1[4] | 29.5[4] | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9 | 29.0+/-2.4 | -0.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
13% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 16+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
56% | 50%[4] | 49% | 51% | 52% | 55+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -42% | -34%[4] | -32% | -32% | -33% | -39+/-6% | -6% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 32.3[4] | 32.4 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8 | 37.0+/-2.5 | -0.8 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 22%[4] | 23% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 26+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 50%[4] | 49% | 49% | 47% | 44% | 46+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -28%[4] | -26% | -24% | -21% | -16% | -20+/-7% | -4% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 16.7 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 22.2+/-2.7 | +1.9 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 15+/-3% | +4%[4] |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 71% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 68% | 67+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -64% | -63% | -61% | -61% | -57% | -53+/-7% | +5% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks. His approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 55%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks, approval rate 26%, disapproval rate 46%, thus a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks, approval rate 15%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. The popularity figures of the Secretaries of Departments have not changed much from a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 3 to 6 August, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/8/20 | Hong Kong confirms 91 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 5/8/20 | Hong Kong confirms 82 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 3/8/20 | Hong Kong confirms 80 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 1/8/20 | The first team from the National Health Commission arrives in Hong Kong. |
| 31/7/20 | The government postpones the Legislative Council election for a year. |
| 30/7/20 | Nominations of 12 democrats for Legislative Council election are invalidated. |
| 29/7/20 | All-day dine-in ban takes effect, forcing people to eat in the streets. |
| 28/7/20 | HKU Council decides to dismiss Benny Tai with immediate effect. |
| 27/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 2 people and imposes all-day dine-in ban. |
| 26/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 103 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 25/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 126 local infections with coronavirus disease, while over 100 patients are waiting to be admitted to hospital. |
| 24/7/20 | US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu. |
| 23/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 111 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 22/7/20 | The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours. |
| 22/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 105 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 21/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 58 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 20/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 66 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 19/7/20 | The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places. |
| 18/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 60 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 17/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 50 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 16/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 63 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 15/7/20 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 14/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 40 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 13/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime. |
| 12/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 30 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 11/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 16 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 10/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 32 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 9/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 8/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/7/20 | The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government. |
Data Analysis
Survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 26.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 54 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.0 marks and his net popularity is negative 20 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 22.2 marks and her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
