2020年7月28日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年7月28日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首和特區政府民望及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於七月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,029名香港居民。調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為28.9分，民望淨值為負53個百分點。民望淨值較半個月前下跌7個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負46個百分點，較上個月上升8個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高，但變化在抽樣誤差內。特區政府的信任淨值為負35個百分點，與上個月比較分別不大。市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負51、負52及負70個百分點。當中，市民對政治狀況的滿意度與上個月比較錄得顯著改善，升幅為12個百分點，亦是2019年5月以來新高。民情指數方面，最新數字為59.1，較七月上旬微升0.1點。調查的實效回應比率為62.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 20-24/7/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,029 (包括528個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 62.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.1 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-6/5/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | 1,029 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 62.5% | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | 62.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9+/-2.1 | -- |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 17% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 18+/-2% | -5%[4] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 73% | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 72+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53+/-5% | -7% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/3/20 | 14-17/4/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[5] | 616-620 | 613-622 | 624-664 | 593-616 | 620-629 | 611-615 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.6% | 62.9% | 64.5% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[6] | 9%[7] | 17%[7] | 21% | 19% | 17% | 19+/-3% | +2% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[6] | 83%[7] | 68%[7] | 68% | 67% | 71% | 65+/-4% | -6%[7] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -74%[7] | -51%[7] | -47% | -49% | -54% | -46+/-6% | +8% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.6[7] | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 信任特區政府比率[6] | 14%[7] | 25%[7] | 29% | 27% | 27% | 25+/-3% | -1% |
| 不信任特區政府比率[6] | 76%[7] | 62%[7] | 60% | 63% | 59% | 61+/-4% | +2% |
| 信任淨值 | -62%[7] | -37%[7] | -32% | -36% | -32% | -35+/-7% | -4% |
| 平均量值[6] | 1.8[7] | 2.3[7] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[5] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[6] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/3/20 | 14-17/4/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,008 | 1,004 | 1,005 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,029 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.6% | 62.9% | 64.5% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[8] | 9%[9] | 16%[9] | 14% | 12% | 12% | 15+/-2% | +3%[9] |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[8] | 79%[9] | 67%[9] | 70% | 73% | 66%[9] | 66+/-3% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | -69%[9] | -51%[9] | -56% | -61% | -54%[9] | -51+/-5% | +4% |
| 平均量值[8] | 1.8[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.0 | 1.9[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[8] | 9%[9] | 12%[9] | 11% | 9% | 12% | 13+/-2% | +1% |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[8] | 73%[9] | 70% | 72% | 75% | 64%[9] | 64+/-3% | +1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -64%[9] | -58%[9] | -61% | -66% | -52%[9] | -52+/-4% | +1% |
| 平均量值[8] | 1.9[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.0 | 1.9[9] | 2.2[9] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[8] | 3%[9] | 6%[9] | 7% | 3%[9] | 3% | 8+/-2% | +5%[9] |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[8] | 86% | 80%[9] | 81% | 88%[9] | 84%[9] | 78+/-3% | -7%[9] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -83% | -74%[9] | -74% | -86%[9] | -81%[9] | -70+/-4% | +12%[9] |
| 平均量值[8] | 1.4 | 1.6[9] | 1.6 | 1.4[9] | 1.5[9] | 1.6+/-0.1 | +0.2[9] |
[8] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為28.9分，與半個月前分別不大。其支持率為18%，反對率為72%，民望淨值為負53個百分點，較半個月前下跌7個百分點，但變化在抽樣誤差內。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為19%，不滿率為65%，滿意率淨值為負46個百分點，平均量值為2.0分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。滿意率淨值較上個月上升8個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。信任程度方面，最新的信任比率為25%，不信任比率為61%，信任淨值為負35個百分點，平均量值為2.2分，即整體上接近「幾不信任」，數字與上個月比較分別不大。
至於市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意程度，最新滿意率分別為15%、13%及8%，而滿意淨值就分別為負51、負52及負70個百分點。民生狀況和經濟狀況的平均量值均為2.1，即整體上接近「幾不滿」；政治狀況的平均量值為1.6，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「好不滿」之間。市民對政治狀況的滿意度與上個月比較錄得顯著改善，亦是2019年5月以來新高。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：59.1 (+0.1) | 政評數值：62.6 (-0.2) | 社評數值：56.9 (+0.3) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 6/5/20 | 21/5/20 | 4/6/20 | 18/6/20 | 9/7/20 | 24/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 56.5 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 58.9 | 59.0 | 59.1 | +0.1 |
| 政評數值 | 62.8 | 60.9 | 60.7 | 62.6 | 62.8 | 62.6 | -0.2 |
| 特首評分 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 | -- |
| 特首民望淨值 | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53% | -7% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 2.0[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.3 | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | -- |
| 社評數值 | 52.2[10] | 43.7 | 43.7[10] | 56.5 | 56.6[10] | 56.9 | +0.3 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 1.6[10] | 1.4 | 1.4[10] | 1.5 | 1.5[10] | 1.6 | +0.2 |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.33 | 0.33[10] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.33 | 0.33[10] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | -- |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.35 | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較七月上旬上升0.1點至59.1，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌0.2點至62.6，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值則上升0.3點至56.9。兩者均可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為15-18/6/2020，而今次調查日期則為20-24/7/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 24/7/20 | 美國國務卿蓬佩奧發表對華政策演說，中國要求美國關閉駐成都總領事館 |
| 23/7/20 | 香港新增111宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 22/7/20 | 美國要求中國72小時內關閉駐休斯敦總領事館 |
| 22/7/20 | 香港新增105宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 21/7/20 | 香港新增58宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 20/7/20 | 香港新增66宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 19/7/20 | 政府宣布部分公務員在家工作，市民在室內公共場所必須戴口罩 |
| 18/7/20 | 香港新增60宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 17/7/20 | 香港新增50宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 16/7/20 | 香港新增63宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 15/7/20 | 美國總統特朗普簽署《香港自治法案》 |
| 14/7/20 | 香港新增40宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 13/7/20 | 政府收緊限聚令至4人並禁止晚市堂食 |
| 12/7/20 | 香港新增30宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 11/7/20 | 香港新增16宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 10/7/20 | 香港新增32宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 9/7/20 | 香港新增34宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 8/7/20 | 香港新增19宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/7/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/7/20 | 政府刊憲公布國安法實施細則 |
| 5/7/20 | 香港再出現本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 27/6/20 | 傳媒報導國安法罰則消息 |
| 26/6/20 | 美國參議院通過《香港自治法案》 |
| 20/6/20 | 國安法部分內容曝光 |
| 18/6/20 | 人大常委會審議國安法 |
| 16/6/20 | 政府放寬限聚令至50人 |
| 15/6/20 | 中央政府將有國安法執法權 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為28.9分，民望淨值為負53個百分點。民望淨值較半個月前下跌7個百分點，但變化未超過抽樣誤差。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負46個百分點，較上個月上升8個百分點，創2019年5月以來新高，但變化在抽樣誤差內。特區政府的信任淨值為負35個百分點，與上個月比較分別不大。市民對現時民生、經濟及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負51、負52及負70個百分點。當中，市民對政治狀況的滿意度與上個月比較錄得顯著改善，升幅為12個百分點，亦是2019年5月以來新高。
民情指數方面，最新數字為59.1，較七月上旬微升0.1點。
Jul 28, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on July 28, 2020
POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government
and Public Sentiment Index
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,029 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of July. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 46 percentage points, increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, and reached a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. The net trust value of the HKSAR Government is negative 35 percentage points, which is more or less the same as last month. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly by 12 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record high since May 2019. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 59.1, slightly up by 0.1 points from early July. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 20-24/7/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,029 (including 528 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 62.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 4-6/5/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 20-24/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | 1,029 | -- |
| Response rate | 62.5% | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | 62.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9+/-2.1 | -- |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
17% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23% | 18+/-2% | -5%[4] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
73% | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69% | 72+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53+/-5% | -7% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/3/20 | 14-17/4/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[5] | 616-620 | 613-622 | 624-664 | 593-616 | 620-629 | 611-615 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.6% | 62.9% | 64.5% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[6] | 9%[7] | 17%[7] | 21% | 19% | 17% | 19+/-3% | +2% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[6] | 83%[7] | 68%[7] | 68% | 67% | 71% | 65+/-4% | -6%[7] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -74%[7] | -51%[7] | -47% | -49% | -54% | -46+/-6% | +8% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.6[7] | 2.0[7] | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[6] | 14%[7] | 25%[7] | 29% | 27% | 27% | 25+/-3% | -1% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[6] | 76%[7] | 62%[7] | 60% | 63% | 59% | 61+/-4% | +2% |
| Net trust | -62%[7] | -37%[7] | -32% | -36% | -32% | -35+/-7% | -4% |
| Mean value[6] | 1.8[7] | 2.3[7] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -- |
[5] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/2/20 | 17-20/3/20 | 14-17/4/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 20-24/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,008 | 1,004 | 1,005 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,029 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.6% | 62.9% | 64.5% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 62.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[8] |
9%[9] | 16%[9] | 14% | 12% | 12% | 15+/-2% | +3%[9] |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8] |
79%[9] | 67%[9] | 70% | 73% | 66%[9] | 66+/-3% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | -69%[9] | -51%[9] | -56% | -61% | -54%[9] | -51+/-5% | +4% |
| Mean value[8] | 1.8[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.0 | 1.9[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[8] |
9%[9] | 12%[9] | 11% | 9% | 12% | 13+/-2% | +1% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8] |
73%[9] | 70% | 72% | 75% | 64%[9] | 64+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -64%[9] | -58%[9] | -61% | -66% | -52%[9] | -52+/-4% | +1% |
| Mean value[8] | 1.9[9] | 2.1[9] | 2.0 | 1.9[9] | 2.2[9] | 2.1+/-0.1 | -0.1 |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[8] |
3%[9] | 6%[9] | 7% | 3%[9] | 3% | 8+/-2% | +5%[9] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[8] |
86% | 80%[9] | 81% | 88%[9] | 84%[9] | 78+/-3% | -7%[9] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -83% | -74%[9] | -74% | -86%[9] | -81%[9] | -70+/-4% | +12%[9] |
| Mean value[8] | 1.4 | 1.6[9] | 1.6 | 1.4[9] | 1.5[9] | 1.6+/-0.1 | +0.2[9] |
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks, which has not changed much from half a month ago. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 19%, whereas 65% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Net satisfaction has increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, registering a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 25% of the respondents expressed trust, 61% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 35 percentage points. The mean score is 2.2, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. These figures have not changed much from a month ago.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 15%, 13% and 8% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of livelihood condition and economic condition are both 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly from a month ago and registered record high since May 2019.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 59.1 (+0.1) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 62.6 (-0.2) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 56.9 (+0.3) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 6/5/20 | 21/5/20 | 4/6/20 | 18/6/20 | 9/7/20 | 24/7/20 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 56.5 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 58.9 | 59.0 | 59.1 | +0.1 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 62.8 | 60.9 | 60.7 | 62.6 | 62.8 | 62.6 | -0.2 |
| Rating of CE | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 28.9 | -- |
| Net approval rate of CE | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46% | -53% | -7% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.0[10] | 2.0 | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.3 | 2.3[10] | 2.2 | -- |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 52.2[10] | 43.7 | 43.7[10] | 56.5 | 56.6[10] | 56.9 | +0.3 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 1.6[10] | 1.4 | 1.4[10] | 1.5 | 1.5[10] | 1.6 | +0.2 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.33 | 0.33[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.32[10] | 0.33 | 0.33[10] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.0[10] | 1.9 | 1.9[10] | 2.1 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | -- |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.34[10] | 0.35 | 0.35[10] | -- |
[10] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 59.1, up by 0.1 points from early July. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 0.2 points to 62.6, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 0.3 points to 56.9. They can both be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 15 to 18 June, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 24 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 24/7/20 | US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on China policy, while China orders the US to close its consulate in Chengdu. |
| 23/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 111 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 22/7/20 | The US orders China to close its consulate in Houston within 72 hours. |
| 22/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 105 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 21/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 58 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 20/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 66 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 19/7/20 | The government announces that some civil servants will work from home and makes wearing of masks mandatory in indoor public places. |
| 18/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 60 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 17/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 50 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 16/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 63 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 15/7/20 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 14/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 40 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 13/7/20 | The government tightens restrictions of group gatherings to 4 people and imposes dine-in ban during nighttime. |
| 12/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 30 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 11/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 16 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 10/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 32 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 9/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 8/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/7/20 | The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government. |
| 5/7/20 | Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 27/6/20 | Media reports on information on the penalities of the national security law. |
| 26/6/20 | The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 20/6/20 | Some contents of the national security law have been revealed. |
| 18/6/20 | The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress discusses the national security law. |
| 16/6/20 | The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people. |
| 15/6/20 | The Central Government will have enforcement powers regarding the national security law. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 28.9 marks. Her net popularity is negative 53 percentage points, registering a drop of 7 percentage points since half a month ago, but the change is within the sampling error. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 46 percentage points, increased by 8 percentage points since a month ago, and reached a record high since May 2019, but the change has not gone beyond the sampling error. The net trust value of the HKSAR Government is negative 35 percentage points, which is more or less the same as last month. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 51, negative 52 and negative 70 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the political condition has improved significantly by 12 percentage points from a month ago and registered a record high since May 2019.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 59.1, slightly up by 0.1 points from early July.
