2020年7月21日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年7月21日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放最新社會及自由指標
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於七月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。首先，五項核心指標中，「自由」、「民主」、「法治」和「安定」得分均低於5分。與今年4月比較，「自由」和「安定」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「自由」、「民主」和「法治」指標創1997年有記錄以來新低，「繁榮」指標則創2003年7月以來新低。七項非核心指標中，「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」得分低於5分，「文明」和「公平」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「文明」、「平等」和「公平」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。十項自由次指標中，「學術研究自由」、「文藝創作自由」、「出版自由」、「言論自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」、「罷工自由」和「遊行示威自由」得分低於5分。十項自由次指標全部錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。法治方面，「法庭公正程度」和「司法制度公平程度」均低於5分，兩者同樣錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分則有57.1分，與上次調查結果相若。調查的實效回應比率為52.4%。在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 6-9/7/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括492個固網及509個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 52.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，評分誤差不超過+/-2.7 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是五項核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 22-24/10/18[4] | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[5] | 523-554 | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.4% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 繁榮指標 | 6.61[6] | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45[6] | 5.35+/-0.21 | -0.10 |
| 自由指標 | 6.57[6] | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58[6] | 4.84+/-0.27 | -0.74[6] |
| 民主指標 | 5.10[6] | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61 | 4.37+/-0.28 | -0.24 |
| 法治指標 | 6.21[6] | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45 | 4.14+/-0.27 | -0.31 |
| 安定指標 | 6.61 | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44[6] | 4.12+/-0.23 | -0.32[6] |
[4] 2018年10月至12月，民研計劃為不同量尺描述程度的字眼進行測試，表中數字為綜合結果。詳情請參閱網站。
[5] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是七項非核心社會指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,017 | 526-642 | 587-716 | 627-663 | 616-665 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 社會福利指標 | 6.24 | 5.79[7] | 5.55 | 5.56 | 5.63+/-0.23 | +0.07 |
| 文明指標 | 6.84 | 6.78 | 5.68[7] | 6.00[7] | 5.42+/-0.24 | -0.58[7] |
| 效率指標 | 6.66 | 6.36[7] | 5.88[7] | 5.25[7] | 5.34+/-0.23 | +0.09 |
| 治安指標 | 7.47 | 7.02[7] | 4.55[7] | 5.13[7] | 5.14+/-0.23 | +0.01 |
| 廉潔指標 | 6.59[7] | 6.43 | 5.12[7] | 4.98 | 4.98+/-0.25 | -- |
| 平等指標 | 5.82 | 5.69 | 4.71[7] | 4.87 | 4.62+/-0.24 | -0.24 |
| 公平指標 | 5.77[7] | 5.47[7] | 4.20[7] | 4.79[7] | 4.15+/-0.23 | -0.64[7] |
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是十項自由次指標的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,017 | 525-651 | 609-700 | 579-643 | 583-664 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 自由指標 (重複顯示) | 7.11[8] | 6.60 | 6.00[8] | 5.58[8] | 4.84+/-0.27 | -0.74[8] |
| 信仰自由 | 8.51 | 8.12[8] | 7.79[8] | 7.24[8] | 6.71+/-0.25 | -0.53[8] |
| 出入境自由 | 8.14 | 7.77[8] | 7.14[8] | 7.02 | 6.50+/-0.26 | -0.52[8] |
| 學術研究自由 | 7.06 | 6.78 | 6.46[8] | 5.59[8] | 4.98+/-0.28 | -0.61[8] |
| 文藝創作自由 | 7.10 | 6.93 | 6.54[8] | 5.63[8] | 4.96+/-0.28 | -0.67[8] |
| 出版自由 | 6.40 | 5.76[8] | 5.81 | 5.10[8] | 4.40+/-0.29 | -0.70[8] |
| 言論自由 | 6.80 | 6.20[8] | 5.85[8] | 5.24[8] | 4.39+/-0.31 | -0.85[8] |
| 結社自由 | 6.42 | 5.38[8] | 5.13 | 4.88 | 4.35+/-0.31 | -0.53[8] |
| 新聞自由 | 6.43[8] | 5.81[8] | 5.72 | 4.94[8] | 4.27+/-0.30 | -0.67[8] |
| 罷工自由 | 6.25 | 5.86[8] | 5.04[8] | 4.67[8] | 4.08+/-0.29 | -0.59[8] |
| 遊行示威自由 | 6.79[8] | 6.15[8] | 4.68[8] | 4.13[8] | 3.31+/-0.32 | -0.82[8] |
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是兩項法治次指標及終審法院首席法官評分的最新數字：
| 調查日期 | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,017 | 527-688 | 642-690 | 641-658 | 584-643 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 法治指標 (重複顯示) | 6.74[9] | 6.20 | 4.41[9] | 4.45 | 4.14+/-0.27 | -0.31 |
| 法庭公正程度 | 6.84[9] | 6.20[9] | 5.52[9] | 4.60[9] | 4.24+/-0.22 | -0.35[9] |
| 司法制度公平程度 | 6.35[9] | 5.63[9] | 4.37[9] | 4.41 | 4.07+/-0.24 | -0.34[9] |
| 馬道立支持度評分 | 69.6[9] | 62.7[9] | 57.1[9] | 57.3 | 57.1+/-2.7 | -0.1 |
[9] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。核心指標方面，以0至10分評價，市民對「繁榮」和的評分較高，得5.35分；「自由」、「民主」、「法治」和「安定」則低於5分，分別得4.84、4.37、4.14和4.12分。相比四月中的調查，「自由」和「安定」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「自由」、「民主」和「法治」指標創1997年有記錄以來新低，「繁榮」指標則創2003年7月以來新低。
非核心指標方面，獲較高得分的有「社會福利」、「文明」、「效率」和「治安」，分別得5.63、5.42、5.34和5.14分；「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」則低於5分，分別得4.98、4.62和4.15分。相比上次調查，「文明」和「公平」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「文明」、「平等」和「公平」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。
自由次指標方面，獲較高得分的有「信仰自由」和「出入境自由」，分別得6.71和6.50分；其次為「學術研究自由」、「文藝創作自由」、「出版自由」、「言論自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」和「罷工自由」，分別得4.98、4.96、4.40、4.39、4.35、4.27和4.08分；「遊行示威自由」更只得3.31分。相比上次調查，全部十項次指標均錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。
至於兩項法治次指標，法庭公正程度得4.24分，司法制度公平程度則得4.07分，兩者均錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。而終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分，以0至100分評價，則有57.1分，與上次調查結果相若。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事紀錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為14-17/4/2020，而今次調查日期則為6-9/7/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 9/7/20 | 香港新增34宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 8/7/20 | 香港新增19宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/7/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/7/20 | 政府刊憲公布國安法實施細則 |
| 5/7/20 | 香港再出現本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 27/6/20 | 傳媒報導國安法罰則消息 |
| 26/6/20 | 美國參議院通過《香港自治法案》 |
| 20/6/20 | 國安法部分內容曝光 |
| 18/6/20 | 人大常委會審議國安法 |
| 16/6/20 | 政府放寬限聚令至50人 |
| 15/6/20 | 中央政府將有國安法執法權 |
| 12/6/20 | 中央政府批評有組織發動罷課公投 |
| 9/6/20 | 政府宣布向國泰航空注資273億免其倒閉 |
| 8/6/20 | 政府公布發放一萬元現金安排 |
| 8/6/20 | 張曉明在基本法頒布30周年網上研討會發表演說 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 2/6/20 | 香港再出現本地感染新冠肺炎個案，限聚令延長14日 |
| 29/5/20 | 特朗普公布有關中國及香港的新措施，並指中國以「一國一制」取代「一國兩制」 |
| 28/5/20 | 全國人大通過訂立港區國安法 |
| 27/5/20 | 反國歌法及國安法示威中逾360人被捕 |
| 24/5/20 | 反國安法遊行於港島舉行，逾180人被捕 |
| 22/5/20 | 國安法實施後將有中央政府國安機構駐港 |
| 21/5/20 | 全國人大將審議港區國安法 |
| 19/5/20 | 香港失業率升至5.2% |
| 18/5/20 | 李慧琼當選立法會內會主席 |
| 16/5/20 | 考評局通識科兩經理辭職 |
| 15/5/20 | 監警會發表報告指沒有任何證據顯示8.31太子站事件中有人死亡 |
| 13/5/20 | 香港新增2宗本地感染之新冠肺炎個案，失守23日本地零確診 |
| 12/5/20 | 政府放寬保就業計劃申請條件 |
| 11/5/20 | 海洋公園申請政府54億注資免倒閉 |
| 8/5/20 | 立法會內會發生衝突，11名民主派議員被逐離場 |
| 4/5/20 | 香港第一季本地生產總值按年下跌8.9% |
| 3/5/20 | 政府將派發可重用口罩 |
| 2/5/20 | 警方於荒廢校舍檢獲爆炸品 |
| 1/5/20 | 多區有市民聚集 |
| 28/4/20 | 政府宣布跨境學童及特定商務客入境可豁免檢疫 |
| 27/4/20 | 政府研究放寬陸路口岸入境限制 |
| 21/4/20 | 政府公布多名新局長任命 |
| 21/4/20 | 港澳辦刊登多篇聲明批評郭榮鏗 |
| 20/4/20 | 香港失業率升至4.2% |
| 18/4/20 | 李柱銘、黎智英等15名民主派人士被捕 |
| 15/4/20 | 中聯辦主任駱惠寧指香港要維護國家安全 |
| 14/4/20 | 林鄭月娥指港澳辦及中聯辨沒有干預香港事務 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，各項社會及自由指標持續低迷。首先，五項核心指標中，「自由」、「民主」、「法治」和「安定」得分均低於5分。與今年4月比較，「自由」和「安定」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「自由」、「民主」和「法治」指標創1997年有記錄以來新低，「繁榮」指標則創2003年7月以來新低。
七項非核心指標中，「廉潔」、「平等」和「公平」得分低於5分，「文明」和「公平」指標錄得顯著跌幅。「文明」、「平等」和「公平」指標同創1997年有記錄以來新低。
十項自由次指標中，「學術研究自由」、「文藝創作自由」、「出版自由」、「言論自由」、「結社自由」、「新聞自由」、「罷工自由」和「遊行示威自由」得分低於5分。十項自由次指標全部錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。
法治方面，「法庭公正程度」和「司法制度公平程度」均低於5分，兩者同樣錄得顯著跌幅，並創1997年有記錄以來新低。終審法院首席法官馬道立的最新支持度評分則有57.1分，與上次調查結果相若。
Jul 21, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on July 21, 2020
POP releases the latest social and freedom indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early July. Our survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. First of all, among the five core indicators, ratings of “freedom”, “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “freedom” and “stability” have dropped significantly when compared to figures of this April. Ratings of “freedom”, “democracy” and “rule of law” have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997 while the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since July 2003. As for the seven non-core social indicators, ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “civilization” and “fairness” have dropped significantly. Ratings of “civilization”, “equality” and “fairness” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “academic research”, “artistic and literary creation”, “publication”, “speech”, “association”, “press”, “freedom to strike” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. All ten sub-indicators have dropped significantly and have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, both “impartiality of the courts” and “fairness of the judicial system” score lower than 5 marks. Both have dropped significantly and registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma is 57.1, which is comparable to the previous survey. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.4%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-2.7 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 6-9/7/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 492 landline and 509 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 52.4% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.7 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 22-24/10/18[4] | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[5] | 523-554 | 553-615 | 587-669 | 627-654 | 598-664 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.4% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of prosperity | 6.61[6] | 6.55 | 5.87[6] | 5.45[6] | 5.35+/-0.21 | -0.10 |
| Degree of freedom | 6.57[6] | 6.60 | 6.00[6] | 5.58[6] | 4.84+/-0.27 | -0.74[6] |
| Degree of democracy | 5.10[6] | 5.42[6] | 4.55[6] | 4.61 | 4.37+/-0.28 | -0.24 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 6.21[6] | 6.20 | 4.41[6] | 4.45 | 4.14+/-0.27 | -0.31 |
| Degree of stability | 6.61 | 6.29[6] | 4.05[6] | 4.44[6] | 4.12+/-0.23 | -0.32[6] |
[4] From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.
[5] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the seven non-core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,017 | 526-642 | 587-716 | 627-663 | 616-665 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of social welfare sufficiency | 6.24 | 5.79[7] | 5.55 | 5.56 | 5.63+/-0.23 | +0.07 |
| Degree of civilization | 6.84 | 6.78 | 5.68[7] | 6.00[7] | 5.42+/-0.24 | -0.58[7] |
| Degree of efficiency | 6.66 | 6.36[7] | 5.88[7] | 5.25[7] | 5.34+/-0.23 | +0.09 |
| Degree of public order | 7.47 | 7.02[7] | 4.55[7] | 5.13[7] | 5.14+/-0.23 | +0.01 |
| Degree of corruption-free practices | 6.59[7] | 6.43 | 5.12[7] | 4.98 | 4.98+/-0.25 | -- |
| Degree of equality | 5.82 | 5.69 | 4.71[7] | 4.87 | 4.62+/-0.24 | -0.24 |
| Degree of fairness | 5.77[7] | 5.47[7] | 4.20[7] | 4.79[7] | 4.15+/-0.23 | -0.64[7] |
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the ten freedom sub-indicators:
| Date of survey | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,017 | 525-651 | 609-700 | 579-643 | 583-664 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Degree of freedom (repeated listing) | 7.11[8] | 6.60 | 6.00[8] | 5.58[8] | 4.84+/-0.27 | -0.74[8] |
| Freedom of religious belief | 8.51 | 8.12[8] | 7.79[8] | 7.24[8] | 6.71+/-0.25 | -0.53[8] |
| Freedom to enter or leave Hong Kong | 8.14 | 7.77[8] | 7.14[8] | 7.02 | 6.50+/-0.26 | -0.52[8] |
| Freedom to engage in academic research |
7.06 | 6.78 | 6.46[8] | 5.59[8] | 4.98+/-0.28 | -0.61[8] |
| Freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation |
7.10 | 6.93 | 6.54[8] | 5.63[8] | 4.96+/-0.28 | -0.67[8] |
| Freedom of publication | 6.40 | 5.76[8] | 5.81 | 5.10[8] | 4.40+/-0.29 | -0.70[8] |
| Freedom of speech | 6.80 | 6.20[8] | 5.85[8] | 5.24[8] | 4.39+/-0.31 | -0.85[8] |
| Freedom of association | 6.42 | 5.38[8] | 5.13 | 4.88 | 4.35+/-0.31 | -0.53[8] |
| Freedom of press | 6.43[8] | 5.81[8] | 5.72 | 4.94[8] | 4.27+/-0.30 | -0.67[8] |
| Freedom to strike | 6.25 | 5.86[8] | 5.04[8] | 4.67[8] | 4.08+/-0.29 | -0.59[8] |
| Freedom of procession and demonstration | 6.79[8] | 6.15[8] | 4.68[8] | 4.13[8] | 3.31+/-0.32 | -0.82[8] |
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Herewith the latest figures of the two rule of law sub-indicators and the rating of the Chief Justice:
| Date of survey | 4-9/5/18 | 6-9/5/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 14-17/4/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,017 | 527-688 | 642-690 | 641-658 | 584-643 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.5% | 63.2% | 69.5% | 64.5% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Compliance with the rule of law (repeated listing) | 6.74[9] | 6.20 | 4.41[9] | 4.45 | 4.14+/-0.27 | -0.31 |
| Impartiality of the courts | 6.84[9] | 6.20[9] | 5.52[9] | 4.60[9] | 4.24+/-0.22 | -0.35[9] |
| Fairness of the judicial system | 6.35[9] | 5.63[9] | 4.37[9] | 4.41 | 4.07+/-0.24 | -0.34[9] |
| Support rating of Geoffrey Ma | 69.6[9] | 62.7[9] | 57.1[9] | 57.3 | 57.1+/-2.7 | -0.1 |
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. Regarding the core indicators, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s rating on “prosperity” is relatively higher, with 5.35 marks. Ratings of “freedom”, “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” score lower than 5 marks, with 4.84, 4.37, 4.14 and 4.12 respectively. Compared with the survey in mid-April, ratings of “freedom” and “stability” have dropped significantly. Ratings of “freedom”, “democracy” and “rule of law” have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997 while the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since July 2003.
As for the non-core indicators, “social welfare sufficiency”, “civilization”, “efficiency” and “public order” got higher ratings, with 5.63, 5.42, 5.34 and 5.14 marks respectively. Ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks, with 4.98, 4.62 and 4.15 respectively. Compared with the previous survey, ratings of “civilization” and “fairness” have dropped significantly. Ratings of “civilization”, “equality” and “fairness” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the freedom sub-indicators, freedoms of “religious belief” and “entering or leaving Hong Kong” got higher ratings, with 6.71 and 6.50 marks respectively, followed by freedom of “academic research”, “artistic and literary creation”, “publication”, “speech”, “association”, “press” and “freedom to strike”, with 4.98, 4.96, 4.40, 4.39, 4.35, 4.27 and 4.08 marks respectively, while freedom of “procession and demonstration” only scores 3.31 marks. Compared with the previous survey, all ten sub-indicators have dropped significantly and have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the two rule of law sub-indicators, “impartiality of the courts” got 4.24 marks, while “fairness of the judicial system” got 4.07 marks. Both indicators have dropped significantly and registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. As for Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma, his latest support rating is 57.1 on a scale of 0 to 100, which is comparable to the previous survey.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 14 to 17 April, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 9/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 8/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/7/20 | The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government. |
| 5/7/20 | Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 27/6/20 | Media reports on information on the penalties of the national security law. |
| 26/6/20 | The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 20/6/20 | Some contents of the national security law have been revealed. |
| 18/6/20 | The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress discusses the national security law. |
| 16/6/20 | The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people. |
| 15/6/20 | The Central Government will have enforcement powers regarding the national security law. |
| 12/6/20 | The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott. |
| 9/6/20 | The government announces investment of $27.3 billion in Cathay Pacific Airways to avoid its collapse. |
| 8/6/20 | The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout. |
| 8/6/20 | Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 2/6/20 | Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. Prohibition on group gathering is extended for 14 days. |
| 29/5/20 | Donald Trump announces new measures toward China and Hong Kong and says China has replaced one country, two systems with one country, one system. |
| 28/5/20 | National People’s Congress passes resolution to enact national security law in Hong Kong. |
| 27/5/20 | Over 360 people are arrested in protests against the National Anthem Bill and the national security law. |
| 24/5/20 | People rally against the national security law on Hong Kong Island. Over 180 people are arrested. |
| 22/5/20 | The Central Government will set up national security agencies in Hong Kong after implementation of national security law. |
| 21/5/20 | National People’s Congress will deliberate on national security law in Hong Kong. |
| 19/5/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 5.2%. |
| 18/5/20 | Starry Lee Wai-king is elected the chairperson of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 16/5/20 | Two managers of liberal studies resign from the Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority. |
| 15/5/20 | Independent Police Complaints Council releases a report saying there is no evidence of casualties in the Prince Edward MTR incident on August 31. |
| 13/5/20 | Two local infections with coronavirus end Hong Kong’s 23-day streak of no local transmission. |
| 12/5/20 | The government relaxes eligibility criteria to the Wage Subsidy Scheme. |
| 11/5/20 | Ocean Park seeks $5.4 billion government bailout to avoid shut down. |
| 8/5/20 | Eleven democrats get thrown out after conflicts occur in a meeting of the House Committee of the Legislative Council. |
| 4/5/20 | Hong Kong’s GDP drops by 8.9% year-on-year in the first quarter. |
| 3/5/20 | The government will distribute reusable masks. |
| 2/5/20 | Police finds explosives at an abandoned school. |
| 1/5/20 | People gather in multiple districts. |
| 28/4/20 | The government announces that cross-boundary students and certain business travelers can be exempted from quarantine. |
| 27/4/20 | The government considers relaxing entry restrictions at land borders. |
| 21/4/20 | The government announces the appointment of five Directors of Bureaux. |
| 21/4/20 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office issues multiple statements to criticize Dennis Kwok. |
| 20/4/20 | Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rises to 4.2%. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 14/4/20 | Carrie Lam claims the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office and the Liaison Office did not interfere in Hong Kong affairs. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that various social and freedom indicators continue to stay low. First of all, among the five core indicators, ratings of “freedom”, “democracy”, “rule of law” and “stability” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “freedom” and “stability” have dropped significantly when compared to figures of this April. Ratings of “freedom”, “democracy” and “rule of law” have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997 while the rating of “prosperity” has registered a record low since July 2003.
As for the seven non-core social indicators, ratings of “corruption-free practices”, “equality” and “fairness” score lower than 5 marks. Ratings of “civilization” and “fairness” have dropped significantly. Ratings of “civilization”, “equality” and “fairness” have all registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
As for the ten freedom sub-indicators, freedom of “academic research”, “artistic and literary creation”, “publication”, “speech”, “association”, “press”, “freedom to strike” and “procession and demonstration” all score lower than 5 marks. All ten sub-indicators have dropped significantly and have registered all-time lows since records began in 1997.
In the area of rule of law sub-indicators, both “impartiality of the courts” and “fairness of the judicial system” score lower than 5 marks. Both have dropped significantly and registered all-time lows since records began in 1997. The latest support rating of Chief Justice Geoffrey Ma is 57.1, which is comparable to the previous survey.
