2020年7月17日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年7月17日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於七月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。最新結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負46個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前幾乎沒有變化。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.9分，民望淨值為負33個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.8分，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為20.3分，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值。對比一個月前，十二位局長的淨支持率上升，一人下跌，當中邱騰華的支持率淨值大幅回升10個百分點。調查的實效回應比率為52.4%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 6-9/7/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括492個固網及509個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 52.4% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.9 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 14-17/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,005 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 27.7 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0+/-2.3 | -0.1 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 18% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23+/-3% | +1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 72% | 73% | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69+/-3% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -54% | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46+/-5% | +2% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 26/2/20[5] | 27/2-3/3/20 | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[6] | 1,038 | 646-675 | 672-685 | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 75.5% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | -- | 26.1[7] | 29.5[7] | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9+/-2.6 | -0.7 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | -- | 13% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | -- | 56% | 50%[7] | 49% | 51% | 52+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -42% | -34%[7] | -32% | -32% | -33+/-6% | -1% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 43.5[7] | 32.3[7] | 32.4 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8+/-2.9 | +3.5 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 27[7] | 22%[7] | 23% | 25% | 26% | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 41[7] | 50%[7] | 49% | 49% | 47% | 44+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -14%[7] | -28%[7] | -26% | -24% | -21% | -16+/-7% | +5% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | -- | 16.7 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3+/-2.5 | +1.6 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | -- | 8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10+/-3% | -- |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | -- | 71% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 68+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -64% | -63% | -61% | -61% | -57+/-6% | +4% |
[5] 調查為財政預算案即時調查，只問及財政司司長評分及支持率。
[6] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值倒序排列[8]：
| 調查日期 | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[9] | 576-631 | 611-659 | 577-1,002 | 584-634 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 23% | 32%[10] | 32% | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 44%[10] | 37%[10] | 37% | 34+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21% | -5%[10] | -5% | -4+/-6% | +1% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 23% | 29%[10] | 20%[10] | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 28% | 23% | 28%[10] | 29+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -5% | 7%[10] | -7%[10] | -4+/-6% | +3% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | -- | 19% | 16% | 20+/-3% | +4% |
| 許正宇出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | -- | 20% | 22% | 25+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -1% | -6% | -5+/-5% | +2% |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | -- | 20% | 18% | 23+/-3% | +5%[10] |
| 薛永恒出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | -- | 23% | 28%[10] | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -3% | -10%[10] | -7+/-6% | +3% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 17% | 20% | 17% | 19+/-3% | +2% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 27% | 23% | 29%[10] | 29+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -10% | -4% | -11% | -9+/-6% | +2% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 26% | 26% | 26% | 29+/-4% | +2% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 37% | 38% | 41% | 39+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -11% | -12% | -15% | -10+/-7% | +5% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長支持率 | -- | 19% | 18% | 19+/-3% | +1% |
| 徐英偉出任民政事務局局長反對率 | -- | 22% | 33%[10] | 32+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -3% | -15%[10] | -13+/-6% | +2% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | -- | 19% | 21% | 23+/-4% | +3% |
| 曾國衞出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | -- | 37% | 42% | 41+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -18% | -21% | -18+/-6% | +3% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 26% | 23% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 35% | 42%[10] | 48%[10] | 43+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -9% | -19%[10] | -28% | -18+/-6% | +10%[10] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 24%[10] | 22% | 16%[10] | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 42% | 42% | 45% | 43+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -18% | -20% | -29%[10] | -24+/-6% | +5% |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | -- | 25% | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
| 聶德權出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | -- | 34% | 39% | 45+/-4% | +6%[10] |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | -9% | -18%[10] | -24+/-6% | -6% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 18%[10] | 17% | 23%[10] | 26+/-3% | +2% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 59%[10] | 64%[10] | 60% | 59+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -41%[10] | -47% | -37%[10] | -33+/-7% | +4% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 18% | 18% | 13%[10] | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 53% | 54% | 64%[10] | 62+/-4% | -2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -36% | -35% | -51%[10] | -47+/-6% | +4% |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[9] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為29.0分，其支持率為23%，反對率為69%，民望淨值為負46個百分點，全部數字與半個月前幾乎沒有變化。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.9分，支持率為19%，反對率為52%，民望淨值為負33個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.8分，支持率為28%，反對率為44%，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為20.3分，支持率為10%，反對率為68%，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值，排名首位的是食物及衛生局局長陳肇始，然後是環境局局長黃錦星、財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇、創新及科技局局長薛永恒、發展局局長黃偉綸、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、民政事務局局長徐英偉、政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、公務員事務局局長聶德權、保安局局長李家超及教育局局長楊潤雄。
對比一個月前，十二位局長的淨支持率上升，一人下跌，當中邱騰華的支持率淨值大幅回升10個百分點。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，陳肇始、羅致光、陳茂波、黃錦星、邱騰華、曾國衞、薛永恒、聶德權、陳帆及徐英偉屬於「表現一般」，許正宇及黃偉綸屬於「表現不彰」，楊潤雄、李家超及張建宗屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥及鄭若驊屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（30%）
勞工及福利局局長羅致光（29%） 財政司司長陳茂波（28%） 環境局局長黃錦星（24%） 商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（24%） 政制及內地事務局局長曾國衞（23%） 創新及科技局局長薛永恒（23%） 公務員事務局局長聶德權（21%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（19%） 民政事務局局長徐英偉（19%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[11]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 財經事務及庫務局局長許正宇（20%，45%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（19%，48%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 教育局局長楊潤雄（62%）
保安局局長李家超（59%） 政務司司長張建宗（52%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（69%）
律政司司長鄭若驊（68%） |
[11] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為1-4/6/2020，而今次調查日期則為6-9/7/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 9/7/20 | 香港新增34宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 8/7/20 | 香港新增19宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 7/7/20 | 香港新增9宗本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 6/7/20 | 政府刊憲公布國安法實施細則 |
| 5/7/20 | 香港再出現本地感染新冠肺炎個案 |
| 4/7/20 | 公共圖書館將最少9本政治書下架等候覆檢 |
| 3/7/20 | 中央及特區政府公布多項關於國安法的人事任命 |
| 1/7/20 | 七一示威中十人被指違反國安法被捕 |
| 30/6/20 | 國安法獲通過並生效 |
| 29/6/20 | 國安法通過在即 |
| 27/6/20 | 傳媒報導國安法罰則消息 |
| 26/6/20 | 美國參議院通過《香港自治法案》 |
| 21/6/20 | 傳媒指國安法快將通過 |
| 20/6/20 | 國安法部分內容曝光 |
| 18/6/20 | 人大常委會審議國安法 |
| 16/6/20 | 政府放寬限聚令至50人 |
| 15/6/20 | 中央政府將有國安法執法權 |
| 12/6/20 | 中央政府批評有組織發動罷課公投 |
| 9/6/20 | 政府宣布向國泰航空注資273億免其倒閉 |
| 8/6/20 | 政府公布發放一萬元現金安排 |
| 8/6/20 | 張曉明在基本法頒布30周年網上研討會發表演說 |
| 4/6/20 | 六四悼念活動於多區進行 |
| 3/6/20 | 國務院副總理韓正與林鄭月娥會晤 |
| 2/6/20 | 香港再出現本地感染新冠肺炎個案，限聚令延長14日 |
數據分析
調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為29.0分，民望淨值為負46個百分點，兩項民望數字與半個月前幾乎沒有變化。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分為29.9分，民望淨值為負33個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為37.8分，民望淨值為負16個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為20.3分，民望淨值為負57個百分點。以上全部數字與一個月前分別不大。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值。對比一個月前，十二位局長的淨支持率上升，一人下跌，當中邱騰華的支持率淨值大幅回升10個百分點。
Jul 17, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on July 17, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early July. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 46 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 6-9/7/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 492 landline and 509 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 52.4% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 14-17/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 19-21/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 15-18/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,005 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,002 | 1,002 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 64.5% | 62.5% | 55.6% | 64.3% | 54.1% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 27.7 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 29.0 | 29.0+/-2.3 | -0.1 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 18% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 23+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 72% | 73% | 73% | 72% | 70% | 69+/-3% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -54% | -56% | -54% | -54% | -48% | -46+/-5% | +2% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 26/2/20[5] | 27/2-3/3/20 | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[6] | 1,038 | 646-675 | 672-685 | 574-609 | 562-655 | 524-596 | -- |
| Response rate | 75.5% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | -- | 26.1[7] | 29.5[7] | 30.1 | 30.6 | 29.9+/-2.6 | -0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
-- | 13% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
-- | 56% | 50%[7] | 49% | 51% | 52+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -42% | -34%[7] | -32% | -32% | -33+/-6% | -1% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 43.5[7] | 32.3[7] | 32.4 | 33.3 | 34.3 | 37.8+/-2.9 | +3.5 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 27[7] | 22%[7] | 23% | 25% | 26% | 28+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 41[7] | 50%[7] | 49% | 49% | 47% | 44+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -14%[7] | -28%[7] | -26% | -24% | -21% | -16+/-7% | +5% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | -- | 16.7 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 18.7 | 20.3+/-2.5 | +1.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | -- | 8% | 7% | 8% | 11% | 10+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | -- | 71% | 70% | 69% | 72% | 68+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -64% | -63% | -61% | -61% | -57+/-6% | +4% |
[5] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.
[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:
| Date of survey | 30/3-2/4/20 | 4-6/5/20 | 1-4/6/20 | 6-9/7/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[9] | 576-631 | 611-659 | 577-1,002 | 584-634 | -- |
| Response rate | 66.7% | 62.5% | 64.3% | 52.4% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 23% | 32%[10] | 32% | 30+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 44%[10] | 37%[10] | 37% | 34+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -21% | -5%[10] | -5% | -4+/-6% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 23% | 29%[10] | 20%[10] | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 28% | 23% | 28%[10] | 29+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -5% | 7%[10] | -7%[10] | -4+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | -- | 19% | 16% | 20+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui | -- | 20% | 22% | 25+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -1% | -6% | -5+/-5% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | -- | 20% | 18% | 23+/-3% | +5%[10] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit | -- | 23% | 28%[10] | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -3% | -10%[10] | -7+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 17% | 20% | 17% | 19+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 27% | 23% | 29%[10] | 29+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -10% | -4% | -11% | -9+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 26% | 26% | 26% | 29+/-4% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 37% | 38% | 41% | 39+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -12% | -15% | -10+/-7% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | -- | 19% | 18% | 19+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui | -- | 22% | 33%[10] | 32+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -3% | -15%[10] | -13+/-6% | +2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | -- | 19% | 21% | 23+/-4% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang | -- | 37% | 42% | 41+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -- | -18% | -21% | -18+/-6% | +3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 26% | 23% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 35% | 42%[10] | 48%[10] | 43+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -9% | -19%[10] | -28% | -18+/-6% | +10%[10] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 24%[10] | 22% | 16%[10] | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 42% | 42% | 45% | 43+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -20% | -29%[10] | -24+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | -- | 25% | 21% | 21+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip | -- | 34% | 39% | 45+/-4% | +6%[10] |
| Net approval rate | -- | -9% | -18%[10] | -24+/-6% | -6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 18%[10] | 17% | 23%[10] | 26+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 59%[10] | 64%[10] | 60% | 59+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -41%[10] | -47% | -37%[10] | -33+/-7% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 18% | 18% | 13%[10] | 15+/-3% | +2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 53% | 54% | 64%[10] | 62+/-4% | -2% |
| Net approval rate | -36% | -35% | -51%[10] | -47+/-6% | +4% |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 46 percentage points. All popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks. His approval rate is 19%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks, approval rate 28%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks, approval rate 10%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Paul Chan, Wong Kam-sing, Edward Yau, Erick Tsang, Alfred Sit, Patrick Nip, Frank Chan and Caspar Tsui can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Christopher Hui and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, John Lee and Matthew Cheung fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam and Teresa Cheng fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (30%)
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (29%) FS Paul Chan Mo-po (28%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (24%) Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (24%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang Kwok-wai (23%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Alfred Sit Wing-hang (23%) Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (19%) Secretary for Home Affairs Caspar Tsui Ying-wai (19%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%
ranked by their approval rates[11] the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu (20%, 45%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (19%, 48%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (62%)
Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (59%) CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (52%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%
ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (69%)
SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (68%) |
[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 4 June, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 July, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 9/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 34 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 8/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 19 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 7/7/20 | Hong Kong confirms 9 local infections with coronavirus disease. |
| 6/7/20 | The implementation rules for the national security law are gazetted by the government. |
| 5/7/20 | Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. |
| 4/7/20 | Nine books related to politics are taken off shelf in public libraries and put under review. |
| 3/7/20 | The Central Government and the SAR Government announce multiple personnel appointments concerning the national security law. |
| 1/7/20 | Ten people are arrested for allegedly violating the national security law in the July 1 protest. |
| 30/6/20 | The national security law is passed and comes into effect. |
| 29/6/20 | The national security law will be passed very soon. |
| 27/6/20 | Media reports on information on the penalities of the national security law. |
| 26/6/20 | The US Senate passes the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. |
| 21/6/20 | Media says the national security law will be passed soon. |
| 20/6/20 | Some contents of the national security law have been revealed. |
| 18/6/20 | The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress discusses the national security law. |
| 16/6/20 | The government relaxes restrictions and allows group gatherings of up to 50 people. |
| 15/6/20 | The Central Government will have enforcement powers regarding the national security law. |
| 12/6/20 | The Central Government criticizes groups for organizing referendum for class boycott. |
| 9/6/20 | The government announces investment of $27.3 billion in Cathay Pacific Airways to avoid its collapse. |
| 8/6/20 | The government announces the arrangements for $10,000 cash payout. |
| 8/6/20 | Zhang Xiaoming delivers speech at a webinar to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Basic Law’s promulgation. |
| 4/6/20 | June 4 vigils are held in various districts. |
| 3/6/20 | Vice-Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets Carrie Lam. |
| 2/6/20 | Local infections with coronavirus appear in Hong Kong again. Prohibition on group gathering is extended for 14 days. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 29.0 marks. Her net popularity is negative 46 percentage points. Both popularity figures have remained basically the same as those half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 33 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 37.8 marks and his net popularity is negative 16 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 20.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 57 percentage points. All popularity figures above have not changed much from a month ago.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone up while 1 has gone down. That of Edward Yau has significantly recovered by 10 percentage points.
