2020年6月2日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年6月2日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放六四事件週年調查
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今年進行的六四事件週年調查，可能是最後一次，來年會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於五月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,001名香港居民。調查顯示，香港巿民的主流意見繼續認為中國政府當年處理不當、同情北京學生及支持平反六四。認為中國現時人權狀況較1989年惡劣及估計三年後中國人權狀況會比現時惡劣的比率均較一年前顯著上升，並再創調查自1993年開始以來新高。較多巿民繼續認為香港人有責任推動中國民主發展，對推動經濟發展則意見參半。認為對兩者有責任的比率均較去年大幅下跌，認為沒有責任者則大幅上升，創相關問題分別於1993和1996年開展以來新記錄。民主與經濟相比，較多市民認為香港人應該偏向推動中國的民主發展多於經濟發展，亦認為中國現時應該較著重發展民主。支聯會方面，24%被訪市民認為應該解散，43%則表示不應該，而支聯會的最新評分為47.5分。調查的實效回應比率為55.6%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.3。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 19-21/5/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,001 (包括500個固網及501個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 55.6% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-3%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.3 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一九年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2019年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
六四事件的最新週年調查結果表列如下：
| 調查日期 | 16-19/5/16 | 22-25/5/17 | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,001 | 1,003 | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.6% | 69.7% | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 認為北京學生做法正確比率 | 47% | 46% | 50%[4] | 52% | 52+/-3% | -- |
| 認為北京學生做法錯誤比率 | 17% | 22%[4] | 17%[4] | 21% | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| 認為中國政府處理正確比率 | 11%[4] | 12% | 11% | 13% | 15+/-2% | +2% |
| 認為中國政府處理錯誤比率 | 66% | 69% | 68% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -1% |
| 支持平反六四比率 | 59%[4] | 55%[4] | 54% | 59% | 59+/-3% | +1% |
| 不支持平反六四比率 | 20%[4] | 27%[4] | 24% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| 認為中國現時人權狀況 較1989年有改善比率 |
46%[4] | 53%[4] | 47%[4] | 44% | 38+/-3% | -6%[4] |
| 認為中國現時人權狀況 較1989年惡劣比率 |
24%[4] | 23% | 28%[4] | 33%[4] | 43+/-3% | +10%[4] |
| 估計三年後中國的人權狀況 將較現時有改善比率 |
32%[4] | 38%[4] | 34%[4] | 32% | 29+/-3% | -3% |
| 估計三年後中國的人權狀況 將較現時惡劣比率 |
25%[4] | 23% | 31%[4] | 37%[4] | 44+/-3% | +7%[4] |
| 認為香港人有責任推動中國 民主發展比率 |
62%[4] | 58%[4] | 56% | 62%[4] | 51+/-3% | -10%[4] |
| 認為香港人沒有責任推動中國 民主發展比率 |
27% | 30% | 31% | 28% | 36+/-3% | +8%[4] |
| 認為香港人有責任推動中國 經濟發展比率 |
57%[4] | 58% | 59% | 59% | 45+/-3% | -14%[4] |
| 認為香港人沒有責任推動中國 經濟發展比率 |
34%[4] | 36% | 33% | 35% | 45+/-3% | +10%[4] |
| 認為香港人應該偏向推動中國 經濟發展多於民主發展比率 |
29% | 32% | 35% | 31%[4] | 28+/-3% | -3% |
| 認為香港人應該偏向推動中國 民主發展多於經濟發展比率 |
36% | 38% | 36% | 44%[4] | 44+/-3% | -- |
| 認為中國現時應該較著重 發展經濟比率 |
29% | 32% | 32% | 31% | 29+/-3% | -2% |
| 認為中國現時應該較著重 發展民主比率 |
44% | 46% | 45% | 50%[4] | 49+/-3% | -1% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
本年度的調查發現，52%被訪市民認為當年北京學生的做法正確，20%則認為錯誤。至於當年中國政府處理事件的手法方面，15%認為正確，66%則認為不當。調查亦發現，59%被訪市民支持平反六四，不支持者則佔23%。全部數字與一年前分別不大。
就中國的人權狀況方面，43%被訪市民認為中國現時的人權狀況較1989年時惡劣，44%則估計三年後中國的人權狀況將較現時惡劣，兩者均較一年前顯著上升，而認為已有改善和將會改善的則分別佔38%和29%。兩條問題的數據均屬1993年有紀錄以來最差。
此外，51%被訪市民認為香港人有責任推動中國的民主發展，36%則認為沒有責任，而認為香港人有／沒有責任推動中國經濟發展者則各佔45%。認為對兩者有責任的比率均大幅下跌，認為沒有責任者則大幅上升，創民主發展問題於1993年和經濟發展問題於1996年開展以來新記錄。
民主與經濟相比，28%認為港人應該偏向推動中國的經濟發展多於民主發展，44%則比較重視中國的民主步伐。另一方面，29%認為中國現時應該較著重發展經濟，49%則傾向民主發展。以上數字與一年前分別不大。
而有關支聯會的最新調查結果如下：
| 調查日期 | 16-19/5/16 | 22-25/5/17 | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,001 | 1,003 | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.6% | 69.7% | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 支聯會的評分 | 50.1[5] | 46.9[5] | 47.0 | 50.3[5] | 47.5+/-2.3 | -2.7 |
| 認為應該解散支聯會的被訪者比率 | 21%[5] | 25%[5] | 21%[5] | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| 認為不應該解散支聯會的被訪者比率 | 51%[5] | 46%[5] | 45% | 53%[5] | 43+/-3% | -10%[5] |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
支聯會方面，24%被訪市民認為應該解散，43%則表示不應該，而支聯會的最新評分為47.5分。
數據分析
今年是六四事件31週年，民研計劃亦已經連續進行了28次六四週年調查。宏觀而論，香港巿民的主流意見繼續認為中國政府當年處理不當、同情北京學生及支持平反六四。
認為中國現時人權狀況較1989年惡劣及估計三年後中國人權狀況會比現時惡劣的比率均較一年前顯著上升，並再創調查自1993年開始以來新高。
較多巿民繼續認為香港人有責任推動中國民主發展，對推動經濟發展則意見參半。認為對兩者有責任的比率均較去年大幅下跌，認為沒有責任者則大幅上升，創相關問題分別於1993和1996年開展以來新記錄。
民主與經濟相比，較多市民認為香港人應該偏向推動中國的民主發展多於經濟發展，亦認為中國現時應該較著重發展民主。
支聯會方面，24%被訪市民認為應該解散，43%則表示不應該，而支聯會的最新評分為47.5分。
Jun 2, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on June 2, 2020
POP releases June Fourth anniversary survey
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The June Fourth anniversary survey conducted by POP this year may be the last of its series, whether it will be continued next year or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,001 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-May. Our survey shows that Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth. The percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have increased significantly compared to a year ago, and have again registered record highs since this survey began in 1993. More Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic development in China, while their views are split in half-half on economic development. The number of people who thought Hong Kong people had responsibilities for developing both plunged, while those who thought otherwise surged, setting new records for the two questions since they were first asked in 1993 and 1996 respectively. When comparing democratic and economic development, more thought Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating democratic development in China than on economic development. They also believed that China should emphasize democratic development more. Regarding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, 24% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, 43% said no. Its latest popularity rating stands at 47.5 marks. The effective response rate of the survey is 55.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 19-21/5/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,001 (including 500 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 55.6% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Figures of the latest June Fourth anniversary survey are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-19/5/16 | 22-25/5/17 | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,001 | 1,003 | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.6% | 69.7% | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Proportion of respondents believing: | ||||||
| The Beijing students did the right thing | 47% | 46% | 50%[4] | 52% | 52+/-3% | -- |
| The Beijing students did the wrong thing | 17% | 22%[4] | 17%[4] | 21% | 20+/-3% | -1% |
| The Chinese Government did the right thing | 11%[4] | 12% | 11% | 13% | 15+/-2% | +2% |
| The Chinese Government did the wrong thing | 66% | 69% | 68% | 68% | 66+/-3% | -1% |
| There should be a reversion of the official stand on the incident | 59%[4] | 55%[4] | 54% | 59% | 59+/-3% | +1% |
| There should not be a reversion of the official stand on the incident | 20%[4] | 27%[4] | 24% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| China’s human rights condition has improved since 1989 | 46%[4] | 53%[4] | 47%[4] | 44% | 38+/-3% | -6%[4] |
| China’s human rights condition has worsened since 1989 | 24%[4] | 23% | 28%[4] | 33%[4] | 43+/-3% | +10%[4] |
| China’s human rights condition would improve after 3 years | 32%[4] | 38%[4] | 34%[4] | 32% | 29+/-3% | -3% |
| China’s human rights condition would worsen after 3 years | 25%[4] | 23% | 31%[4] | 37%[4] | 44+/-3% | +7%[4] |
| HK people have a responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China | 62%[4] | 58%[4] | 56% | 62%[4] | 51+/-3% | -10%[4] |
| HK people have no responsibility to instigate the development of democracy in China | 27% | 30% | 31% | 28% | 36+/-3% | +8%[4] |
| HK people have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China | 57%[4] | 58% | 59% | 59% | 45+/-3% | -14%[4] |
| HK people have no responsibility to instigate economic development in China | 34%[4] | 36% | 33% | 35% | 45+/-3% | +10%[4] |
| HK people should put more effort on instigating economic than democratic development in China | 29% | 32% | 35% | 31%[4] | 28+/-3% | -3% |
| HK people should put more effort on instigating democratic than economic development in China | 36% | 38% | 36% | 44%[4] | 44+/-3% | -- |
| China should emphasize economic development more | 29% | 32% | 32% | 31% | 29+/-3% | -2% |
| China should emphasize democratic development more | 44% | 46% | 45% | 50%[4] | 49+/-3% | -1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
This year’s survey findings revealed that 52% of the respondents believed that the Beijing students did the right thing in 1989, while 20% believed that they did the wrong thing. Meanwhile, with regard to the way the Chinese Government handled the matter at that time, 15% regarded it as correct and 66% regarded it as wrong. The findings also showed that 59% of the respondents supported a reversion of the official stand on the incident while 23% did not. All these figures have not changed much from a year ago.
Regarding the human rights condition in China, 43% of the respondents believed that China’s human rights condition has worsened since 1989, and 44% anticipated that China’s human rights condition will further worsen after 3 years, both having increased significantly compared to a year ago, whereas 38% and 29% respectively thought it has improved or will improve. The figures of both questions are at their worst since records began in 1993.
Moreover, 51% of the respondents thought that Hong Kong people had a responsibility to instigate democratic development in China, whereas 36% thought otherwise, while people who thought Hong Kong people did / did not have a responsibility to instigate economic development in China both stand at 45%. The number of people who thought Hong Kong people had responsibilities for developing both plunged, while the number of people who thought otherwise surged, setting new records since the question on democratic development was first asked in 1993 and that on economic development started in 1996.
When comparing democratic and economic development, 28% of the respondents believed Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating economic development in China, while 44% of the respondents put more weight on the development of democracy. Meanwhile, 29% believed that China should emphasize economic development more, while 49% inclined toward democratic development. The figures above have not changed much from a year ago.
Latest figures regarding the HK Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (“the Alliance”) are as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-19/5/16 | 22-25/5/17 | 21-25/5/18 | 20-23/5/19 | 19-21/5/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,001 | 1,003 | 1,009 | 1,013 | 1,001 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.6% | 69.7% | 55.9% | 61.9% | 55.6% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Popularity rating of the Alliance | 50.1[5] | 46.9[5] | 47.0 | 50.3[5] | 47.5+/-2.3 | -2.7 |
| The Alliance should be disbanded | 21%[5] | 25%[5] | 21%[5] | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| The Alliance should not be disbanded | 51%[5] | 46%[5] | 45% | 53%[5] | 43+/-3% | -10%[5] |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding the Alliance, 24% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, 43% said no. Its latest popularity rating stands at 47.5 marks.
Data Analysis
This is the 28th anniversary survey on the June Fourth Incident conducted by POP, marking its 31st anniversary. From a broad perspective, Hong Kong people’s mainstream opinion still holds that the Chinese Government was wrong in 1989, people still support the Beijing students and a reversion of the official stand on June Fourth.
The percentages of those who consider the human rights condition in China worse than that in 1989 and those who think the condition will worsen in the next three years have increased significantly compared to a year ago, and have again registered record highs since this survey began in 1993.
More Hong Kong people continue to think that they have a responsibility to promote democratic development in China, while their views are split in half-half on economic development. The number of people who thought Hong Kong people had responsibilities for developing both plunged, while those who thought otherwise surged, setting new records for the two questions since they were first asked in 1993 and 1996 respectively.
When comparing democratic and economic development, more thought Hong Kong people should put more effort on instigating democratic development in China than on economic development. They also believed that China should emphasize democratic development more.
Regarding the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China, 24% of the respondents said it should be disbanded, 43% said no. Its latest popularity rating stands at 47.5 marks.
