2020年4月15日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年4月15日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放立法會議員民望和財政預算案次輪跟進調查結果
特別宣佈
- 香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
- 香港民研今日發放的立法會議員民望調查，是本年7月1日前發放的最後一次，而今年進行的財政預算案調查，包括即時及跟進調查，亦可能是最後一次，未來會否繼續，要視乎公眾是否支持。
公報簡要
民研計劃於三月底至四月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式，成功訪問了509和500名香港居民。結果顯示，6位最多人認識的立法會議員分別是鄺俊宇、李慧琼、楊岳橋、毛孟靜、譚文豪和朱凱廸，支持度排首位是鄺俊宇，得60.4分，第二至四位是楊岳橋、朱凱廸和毛孟靜，分別得53.5、52.6及50.5分，隨後是李慧琼，得32.8分，較上次調查顯著上升4.2分。重新上榜的朱凱廸評分創2017年1月以來新高。財政預算案方面，次輪跟進調查顯示最新滿意淨值為負18個百分點，滿意度評分為40.6分。支持立法會通過預算案的市民佔46%，反對者則佔37%，支持率淨值為正8個百分點。此外，54%認為香港的稅制公平，但60%表示不滿政府的理財策略，71%認為香港財富分配的情況不合理。各項數字與二月底進行的首輪跟進調查結果相若。調查的實效回應比率分別為67.7%和68.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.3。
樣本資料
| 立法會議員提名階段 及 財政預算案次輪跟進調查 |
立法會議員評分階段 | ||
| 調查日期 | ： | 30-31/3/2020 | 1-2/4/2020 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 509 (包括252個固網及257個手機樣本) |
500 (包括247個固網及253個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 67.7% | 68.1% |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 | |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 | |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-8%，評分誤差不超過+/-3.3 | |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 | |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
立法會議員民望
在提名調查中，被訪者可在未經提示下說出最多10名最熟悉的議員，結果首6位最多被訪者提及的議員分別是鄺俊宇、李慧琼、楊岳橋、毛孟靜、譚文豪和朱凱廸，他們於是被納入評分調查。在評分調查中，被訪者就個別議員以0至100分進行評分，0分代表絕對不支持，100分代表絕對支持，50分為一半半。統計結果後，認知度最低的再被剔除，之後再按支持度由高至低順序排列，得出五大立法會議員。以下是五大立法會議員的最新評分，按評分倒序排列[4]：
| 調查日期 | 5-8/7/19 | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | 最新變化 | |
| 樣本數目[5] | 514 | 526 | 507 | 500 | -- | |
| 回應比率 | 69.1% | 63.4% | 70.4% | 68.1% | -- | |
| 最新結果[6] | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | 認知率 | -- |
| 鄺俊宇 | 61.6[8] | 59.0{1} | 64.3{1}[7] | 60.4+/-3.3{1} | 83.6% | -3.8 |
| 楊岳橋 | 57.4{1}[7] | 57.7[8] | 56.7[8] | 53.5+/-3.3{2} | 80.6% | -3.3 |
| 朱凱廸 | -- | -- | -- | 52.6+/-3.2{3} | 92.7% | -- |
| 毛孟靜 | 47.4{2} | 48.8{3} | 54.0{4}[7] | 50.5+/-3.2{4} | 92.5% | -3.6 |
| 李慧琼 | 33.5{3}[7] | 25.3{4}[7] | 28.6{5} | 32.8+/-3.0{5} | 92.5% | +4.2[7] |
| 譚文豪 | -- | -- | -- | 56.1+/-3.2[8] | 79.2% | -- |
| 林卓廷 | -- | -- | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- |
| 陳淑莊 | -- | 52.3{2} | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| 何君堯 | -- | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 葉劉淑儀 | 33.1{4}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 梁美芬 | 27.1{5}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[4] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[5] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[6] 括弧{ }內數字為排名。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
[8] 於評分調查認知率較低。
最新調查顯示，市民對立法會議員的最新支持度排名，首位是鄺俊宇，得60.4分，第二至四位是楊岳橋、朱凱廸和毛孟靜，分別得53.5、52.6及50.5分，然後是李慧琼，得32.8分，較上次調查顯著上升4.2分。在最新調查中，譚文豪得56.1分，但由於認知率較低而被剔除。另外，重新上榜的朱凱廸評分創2017年1月以來新高。
須要說明，躋身「五大議員」的先決條件是巿民的熟悉程度，然後再按支持度排名。「五大」以外的議員，支持度可以很高或很低，但由於並非巿民最熟悉的議員，所以不在榜內。
財政預算案次輪跟進調查
以下是財政預算案的次輪跟進調查結果，與首兩輪調查結果並列：
| 即時調查[9] | 首輪跟進調查 | 次輪跟進調查 | 最新變化 | |
| 調查日期 | 26/2/2020 | 27-28/2/2020 | 30-31/3/2020 | -- |
| 樣本數目[10] | 991 | 512 | 509 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 75.5% | 70.3% | 67.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 對預算案的評價：滿意率[11] | 46% | 28%[13] | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| 對預算案的評價：不滿率[11] | 27% | 50%[13] | 48+/-4% | -2% |
| 滿意率淨值 | 19% | -22%[13] | -18+/-8% | +4% |
| 平均量值[11] | 3.2 | 2.5[13] | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 預算案滿意度評分 | 54.1 | 40.2[13] | 40.6+/-2.5 | +0.3 |
| 支持立法會通過預算案比率[11] | -- | 39% | 46+/-4% | +6%[13] |
| 反對立法會通過預算案比率[11] | -- | 39% | 37+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -- | <1% | 8+/-8% | +8% |
| 平均量值[11] | -- | 2.9 | 3.1+/-0.1 | +0.2 |
| 政府理財策略滿意率[11] | -- | 20% | 22+/-4% | +1% |
| 政府理財策略不滿率[11] | -- | 60% | 60+/-4% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | -- | -40% | -38+/-7% | +2% |
| 平均量值[11] | -- | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| 認為香港稅制公平比率[12] | -- | 52% | 54+/-4% | +2% |
| 認為香港稅制不公平比率[12] | -- | 35% | 35+/-4% | -- |
| 認為香港財富分配合理比率[12] | -- | 24% | 21+/-4% | -3% |
| 認為香港財富分配不合理比率[12] | -- | 67% | 71+/-4% | +4% |
[9] 即時調查的題目會撇除未聞／不知道財政預算案內容的被訪者，表內數字已是次樣本數目。
[10] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[11] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[12] 數字採自四等量尺。
[13] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
3月底進行的次輪跟進調查顯示，財政預算案的最新滿意率為30%，不滿率48%，滿意淨值為負18個百分點，平均量值為2.6分，即整體上介乎「一半半」及「幾不滿」之間，滿意度評分為40.6分，各項數字與二月底進行的首輪跟進調查結果相若。支持立法會通過預算案的市民佔46%，反對者則佔37%，支持率淨值為正8個百分點。
此外，22%被訪市民滿意政府的理財策略，60%表示不滿，滿意淨值為負38個百分點，平均量值為2.2，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。同時，54%認為香港的稅制公平，認為不公平者則佔35%。至於香港財富分配的情況，21%認為合理，71%則認為不合理。以上各項數字與二月底進行的首輪跟進調查結果比較同樣變化不大。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為7-8/1/2020，而今次調查日期則為1-2/4/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 1/4/20 | 政府宣布麻雀館、卡拉OK等娛樂場所須暫停營業 |
| 31/3/20 | 唱K群組5人確診新冠肺炎 |
| 30/3/20 | 公營醫院隔離病房爆滿 |
| 29/3/20 | 執行「限聚令」被指多灰色地帶 |
| 28/3/20 | 「限聚令」正式生效 |
| 27/3/20 | 政府宣布禁4人以上公眾聚會 |
| 24/3/20 | 36名居家隔離市民違反14天檢疫令外出 |
| 23/3/20 | 政府宣布本地酒吧及食肆禁賣酒 |
| 23/3/20 | 政府禁止非港人由機場入境 |
| 22/3/20 | 香港新型冠狀病毒肺炎個案破300宗 |
| 21/3/20 | 政府宣布加強防疫措施 |
| 20/3/20 | 香港單日新增48宗確診新型冠狀病毒肺炎個案 |
| 19/3/20 | 香港新型冠狀病毒肺炎個案破200宗 |
| 18/3/20 | 香港單日新增25宗確診新型冠狀病毒肺炎個案 |
| 17/3/20 | 政府宣布所有海外國家來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 16/3/20 | 香港新增多宗外地傳入新型冠狀病毒肺炎病例 |
| 15/3/20 | 政府宣布由英美來港人士需隔離14日 |
| 14/3/20 | 大埔富亨邨亨泰樓居民因新型冠狀病毒肺炎個案緊急疏散 |
| 11/3/20 | 埃及旅行團九港人確診新型冠狀病毒肺炎 |
| 7/3/20 | 曾乘搭鑽石公主號郵輪港人不治離世 |
| 5/3/20 | 日本取消港人免簽證入境安排，入境須隔離14日 |
| 4/3/20 | 政府首批包機接回滯留湖北港人 |
| 28/2/20 | 警方拘捕黎智英、李卓人及楊森 |
| 26/2/20 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 24/2/20 | 政府宣布將派包機接回滯留湖北港人 |
| 19/2/20 | 鑽石公主號郵輪首批港人乘坐包機回港 |
| 14/2/20 | 政府宣布成立防疫抗疫基金涉及250億元 |
| 11/2/20 | 青衣長康邨康美樓居民因武漢肺炎個案緊急疏散 |
| 9/2/20 | 香港現首宗武漢肺炎家族感染個案 |
| 8/2/20 | 強制措施首日隔離161人 |
| 7/2/20 | 經中國大陸來港人士需隔離14日措施生效 |
| 6/2/20 | 市民搶購生活必需品 |
| 5/2/20 | 政府宣布經中國大陸來港人士將需隔離14日 |
| 4/2/20 | 香港現首宗武漢肺炎死亡個案 |
| 3/2/20 | 政府宣布進一步關閉關口 |
| 1/2/20 | 醫管局員工陣線通過罷工 |
| 31/1/20 | 政府拒絕全面封關 |
| 29/1/20 | 口罩供應短缺並出現搶購潮 |
| 28/1/20 | 政府宣布局部封關 |
| 27/1/20 | 政府限制湖北居民及曾赴湖北者入境 |
| 23/1/20 | 武漢宣布封城 |
| 22/1/20 | 香港現兩宗「高度懷疑」武漢肺炎個案 |
| 14/1/20 | 政府推出十項民生政策 |
| 13/1/20 | 政府擬向海洋公園提供過百億資助 |
數據分析
立法會議員民望方面，6位最多人認識的議員分別是鄺俊宇、李慧琼、楊岳橋、毛孟靜、譚文豪和朱凱廸，支持度排首位是鄺俊宇，得60.4分，第二至四位是楊岳橋、朱凱廸和毛孟靜，分別得53.5、52.6及50.5分，然後是李慧琼，得32.8分，較上次調查顯著上升4.2分。重新上榜的朱凱廸評分創2017年1月以來新高。
財政預算案方面，次輪跟進調查顯示最新滿意淨值為負18個百分點，滿意度評分為40.6分。支持立法會通過預算案的市民佔46%，反對者則佔37%，支持率淨值為正8個百分點。此外，54%認為香港的稅制公平，但60%表示不滿政府的理財策略，71%認為香港財富分配的情況不合理。各項數字與二月底進行的首輪跟進調查結果相若。
Apr 15, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on April 15, 2020
POP releases popularity of Legislative Councillors
and findings of Budget second follow-up survey
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The survey on the popularity of Legislative Councillors released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020, while the Budget surveys, including instant and follow-up polls, conducted this year may be the last of its series as well. Whether they will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 509 and 500 Hong Kong residents by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in late March and early April. Latest results show that Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu are the six Legislative Councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. The rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017. As for the Budget, the second follow-up survey shows that the latest net satisfaction rate is negative 18 percentage points, while the satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points. Meanwhile, 54% considered Hong Kong’s tax system fair, but 60% were dissatisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement and 71% regarded the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong unreasonable. All figures are similar to those of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February. The effective response rates of the surveys are 67.7% and 68.1% respectively. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-3.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage of Legislative Councillors and Budget second follow-up survey | Rating stage of Legislative Councillors | ||
| Date of survey | : | 30-31/3/2020 | 1-2/4/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 509 (including 252 landline and 257 mobile samples) | 500 (including 247 landline and 253 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 67.7% | 68.1% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.3 at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of Legislative Councillors
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu were the top 6 councillors mentioned most frequently, they therefore entered the rating survey. In the rating survey, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of support ratings[4]:
| Date of survey | 5-8/7/19 | 21-23/10/19 | 7-8/1/20 | 1-2/4/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[5] | 514 | 526 | 507 | 500 | -- | |
| Response rate | 69.1% | 63.4% | 70.4% | 68.1% | -- | |
| Latest findings[6] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recognition rate | -- |
| Roy Kwong | 61.6[8] | 59.0{1} | 64.3{1}[7] | 60.4+/-3.3{1} | 83.6% | -3.8 |
| Alvin Yeung | 57.4{1}[7] | 57.7[8] | 56.7[8] | 53.5+/-3.3{2} | 80.6% | -3.3 |
| Eddie Chu | -- | -- | -- | 52.6+/-3.2{3} | 92.7% | -- |
| Claudia Mo | 47.4{2} | 48.8{3} | 54.0{4}[7] | 50.5+/-3.2{4} | 92.5% | -3.6 |
| Starry Lee | 33.5{3}[7] | 25.3{4}[7] | 28.6{5} | 32.8+/-3.0{5} | 92.5% | +4.2[7] |
| Jeremy Tam | -- | -- | -- | 56.1+/-3.2[8] | 79.2% | -- |
| Lam Cheuk-ting | -- | -- | 56.6{2} | -- | -- | -- |
| Tanya Chan | -- | 52.3{2} | 56.5{3} | -- | -- | -- |
| Junius Ho | -- | 17.1{5} | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Regina Ip | 33.1{4}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Priscilla Leung | 27.1{5}[7] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
[4] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[5] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[6] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[8] Recognition rates were comparatively low in the rating survey.
The latest survey shows that Roy Kwong is the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. In the latest survey, Jeremy Tam obtained a rating of 56.1 marks, but was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. Meanwhile, the rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017.
It should be noted, however, that our list of “top 5” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 5” list by design.
Budget Second Follow-up Survey
Results of the Budget second follow-up survey together with the previous two surveys are summarized below:
| Instant survey[9] | First follow-up survey | Second follow-up survey | Latest change | |
| Date of survey | 26/2/2020 | 27-28/2/2020 | 30-31/3/2020 | -- |
| Sample size[10] | 991 | 512 | 509 | -- |
| Response rate | 75.5% | 70.3% | 67.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Appraisal of Budget: Satisfaction rate[11] | 46% | 28%[13] | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| Appraisal of Budget: Dissatisfaction rate[11] | 27% | 50%[13] | 48+/-4% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | 19% | -22%[13] | -18+/-8% | +4% |
| Mean value[11] | 3.2 | 2.5[13] | 2.6+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Satisfaction rating of Budget | 54.1 | 40.2[13] | 40.6+/-2.5 | +0.3 |
| Support the Legislative Council passing the Budget[11] |
-- | 39% | 46+/-4% | +6%[13] |
| Oppose the Legislative Council passing the Budget[11] |
-- | 39% | 37+/-4% | -1% |
| Net support rate | -- | <1% | 8+/-8% | +8% |
| Mean value[11] | -- | 2.9 | 3.1+/-0.1 | +0.2 |
| Government’s strategy in monetary arrangement: Satisfaction rate[11] | -- | 20% | 22+/-4% | +1% |
| Government’s strategy in monetary arrangement: Dissatisfaction rate[11] | -- | 60% | 60+/-4% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | -- | -40% | -38+/-7% | +2% |
| Mean value[11] | -- | 2.2 | 2.2+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Perceived the tax system in Hong Kong to be fair[12] |
-- | 52% | 54+/-4% | +2% |
| Perceived the tax system in Hong Kong to be unfair[12] |
-- | 35% | 35+/-4% | -- |
| Perceived the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong to be reasonable[12] |
-- | 24% | 21+/-4% | -3% |
| Perceived the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong to be unreasonable[12] |
-- | 67% | 71+/-4% | +4% |
[9] Questions in instant surveys would exclude respondents who had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Budget. Figures in the table are subsample sizes.
[10] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Collapsed from a 4-point scale.
[13] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The second follow-up survey conducted in late March reveals that the latest satisfaction rate of the Budget stands at 30%, dissatisfaction rate 48%, thus a net satisfaction rate of negative 18 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. The satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. These figures are similar to the results of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, 22% were satisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement, whereas 60% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 38 percentage points. The mean value is 2.2, which is close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. With respect to Hong Kong’s tax system, 54% considered it fair, whilst 35% thought it was unfair. Last of all, 21% perceived the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong reasonable, as contrast to 71% who regarded it unreasonable. The figures above also have not changed much since the first follow-up survey conducted in late February.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 8 January, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 1 to 2 April, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 1/4/20 | The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close. |
| 31/3/20 | 5 people who visited karaoke lounge are infected with coronavirus. |
| 30/3/20 | Isolation wards in public hospitals are fully occupied and overloaded. |
| 29/3/20 | The enforcement on “Prohibition on Group Gathering” is judged to have grey areas. |
| 28/3/20 | “Prohibition on Group Gathering” takes effect. |
| 27/3/20 | The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people. |
| 24/3/20 | 36 people breach 14-day home quarantine orders. |
| 23/3/20 | The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol. |
| 23/3/20 | The government announces ban on non-residents arrivals at the airport from entering Hong Kong. |
| 22/3/20 | The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 300. |
| 21/3/20 | The government tightens coronavirus defences. |
| 20/3/20 | Hong Kong confirms 48 coronavirus disease cases in one day. |
| 19/3/20 | The number of coronavirus disease cases in Hong Kong passes 200. |
| 18/3/20 | Hong Kong confirms 25 coronavirus disease cases in one day. |
| 17/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 16/3/20 | Multiple imported coronavirus disease cases are found in Hong Kong. |
| 15/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from the UK and the US will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 14/3/20 | Residents of Heng Tai House, Fu Heng Estate in Tai Po evacuate due to coronavirus disease cases. |
| 11/3/20 | Nine Hong Kong residents who joined a tour to Egypt are diagnosed with the coronavirus disease. |
| 7/3/20 | A Hong Kong resident previously on the cruise Diamond Princess passes away. |
| 5/3/20 | Japan cancels visa-free entry for Hong Kong residents and visitors will be put under quarantine for 14 days. |
| 4/3/20 | The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 26/2/20 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 24/2/20 | The government announces it will arrange charter flights to bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei. |
| 19/2/20 | The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight. |
| 14/2/20 | The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 11/2/20 | Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases. |
| 9/2/20 | First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong. |
| 8/2/20 | Policy puts 161 people in mandatory quarantine. |
| 7/2/20 | The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect. |
| 6/2/20 | People rush to purchase daily necessities. |
| 5/2/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 4/2/20 | First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong. |
| 3/2/20 | The government announces further closure of borders. |
| 1/2/20 | Hospital Authority Employees Alliance members vote to go on strike. |
| 31/1/20 | The government refuses full border closure. |
| 29/1/20 | People rush to purchase masks, which are in short supply. |
| 28/1/20 | The government announces partial border closure. |
| 27/1/20 | The government imposes immigration restrictions on Hubei residents and people who visited Hubei. |
| 23/1/20 | A lockdown of Wuhan is announced. |
| 22/1/20 | Two “highly suspected” Wuhan pneumonia cases are found in Hong Kong. |
| 14/1/20 | The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people. |
| 13/1/20 | The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy. |
Data Analysis
Regarding the popularity of Legislative Councillors, Roy Kwong, Starry Lee, Alvin Yeung, Claudia Mo, Jeremy Tam and Eddie Chu are the six councillors that top people’s mind now. In terms of rating, Roy Kwong tops the list with 60.4 marks. Alvin Yeung, Eddie Chu and Claudia Mo rank the 2nd to 4th with 53.5, 52.6 and 50.5 marks respectively. Starry Lee follows behind with 32.8 marks, registering a significant increase of 4.2 marks compared with the last survey. The rating of Eddie Chu who re-enters the list has registered a record high since January 2017.
As for the Budget, the second follow-up survey shows that the latest net satisfaction rate is negative 18 percentage points, while the satisfaction rating stands at 40.6 marks. As for the Legislative Council passing the Budget, 46% showed support while 37% opposed it, resulting in a net support rate of positive 8 percentage points. Meanwhile, 54% considered Hong Kong’s tax system fair, but 60% were dissatisfied with the government’s strategy in monetary arrangement and 71% regarded the distribution of wealth in Hong Kong unreasonable. All figures are similar to those of the first follow-up survey conducted in late February.
