2020年3月10日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年3月10日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於二月底至三月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,015名香港居民。結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的最新評分為22.6分，民望淨值為負66個百分點，民望從兩星期前的歷史低位止跌回升。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分較上月顯著上升3.2分至26.1，民望淨值為負42個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分則較財政預算案發表當日大幅回落11.2分至32.3，民望淨值同樣大幅回落15個百分點至負28，但與一個月前的數字比較，民望則有所改善。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為16.7分，民望淨值為負64個百分點。局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值。對比一個月前，十三位局長中六人的支持率上升，六人下跌，一人不變，而沒有局長的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。調查的實效回應比率為67.1%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 27/2-3/3/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,015 (包括512個固網及503個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 67.1% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-7%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.5 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 16-21/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 17-19/2/20 | 27/2-3/3/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,046 | 1,011 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,008 | 1,015 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 61.6% | 72.0% | 69.7% | 77.6% | 64.6% | 67.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8 | 20.3 | 18.2 | 22.6+/-1.9 | +4.4[4] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9%[4] | 13+/-2% | +4%[4] |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 81% | 80% | 80% | 81% | 83% | 80+/-3% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -68% | -66% | -66% | -68% | -74%[4] | -66+/-4% | +7%[4] |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 1-8/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 26/2/20[5] | 27/2-3/3/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[6] | 625-656 | 659-671 | 608-669 | 569-631 | 1,038 | 646-675 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 69.4% | 63.2% | 72.0% | 77.6% | 75.5% | 67.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 28.1[7] | 25.6 | 25.3 | 22.9 | -- | 26.1+/-2.2 | +3.2[7] |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 17% | 13% | 14% | 12% | -- | 13+/-3% | +1% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 46% | 54%[7] | 54% | 59% | -- | 56+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -29% | -40%[7] | -41% | -47% | -- | -42+/-6% | +4% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 27.2 | 24.8 | 27.6 | 26.6 | 43.5[7] | 32.3+/-2.5 | -11.2[7] |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 16% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 27[7] | 22+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 57% | 57% | 56% | 55% | 41[7] | 50+/-4% | +9%[7] |
| 支持率淨值 | -40% | -40% | -37% | -36% | -14%[7] | -28+/-6% | -15%[7] |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 15.9 | -- | 16.7+/-1.9 | +0.8 |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | -- | 8+/-2% | -2% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 76% | 75% | 77% | 71%[7] | -- | 71+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -68% | -66% | -69% | -61%[7] | -- | -64+/-5% | -2% |
[5] 調查為財政預算案即時調查，只問及財政司司長評分及支持率。
[6] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[7] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值倒序排列[8]：
| 調查日期 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 27/2-3/3/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目[9] | 588-638 | 588-620 | 578-609 | 595-634 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.2% | 72.0% | 77.6% | 67.1% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 23% | 24% | 26% | 23+/-3% | -3% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 33%[10] | 30% | 29% | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -11% | -6% | -3% | -9+/-6% | -5% |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 18% | 18% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 24% | 23% | 26% | 26+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -6% | -5% | -9% | -9+/-5% | -- |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 29% | 38%[10] | 41% | 33+/-4% | -8%[10] |
| 支持率淨值 | -4% | -13%[10] | -18% | -10+/-6% | +8% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 17% | 16% | 15% | 16+/-3% | +1% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 30% | 32% | 30% | 27+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -13% | -16% | -15% | -11+/-5% | +5% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 20% | 22% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 36% | 41% | 36% | 41+/-4% | +5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -16% | -19% | -16% | -17+/-6% | -1% |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 16% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 32% | 38%[10] | 35% | 37+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -16% | -22% | -18% | -19+/-6% | -1% |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 18% | 18% | 22% | 18+/-3% | -4% |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 42% | 47% | 42% | 41+/-4% | -1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -23% | -29% | -20%[10] | -23+/-6% | -3% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 17% | 18% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 50% | 50% | 49% | 44+/-4% | -5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -34% | -31% | -29% | -25+/-6% | +5% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 22% | 21% | 19% | 23+/-3% | +4% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 43%[10] | 45% | 54%[10] | 51+/-4% | -3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -21%[10] | -24% | -35%[10] | -28+/-7% | +7% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 12% | 11% | 16%[10] | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 62% | 66% | 59%[10] | 53+/-4% | -6%[10] |
| 支持率淨值 | -50% | -55% | -43%[10] | -34+/-6% | +8% |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 16% | 11%[10] | 16%[10] | 13+/-3% | -3% |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 43%[10] | 44% | 45% | 48+/-4% | +3% |
| 支持率淨值 | -27%[10] | -32% | -29% | -35+/-6% | -6% |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 14% | 14% | 12% | 12+/-3% | -- |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 58% | 56% | 59% | 55+/-4% | -4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -44% | -42% | -46% | -42+/-6% | +4% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 15%[10] | 14% | 15% | 13+/-3% | -2% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 66%[10] | 68% | 65% | 68+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | -51%[10] | -54% | -50% | -54+/-6% | -4% |
[8] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[9] 民研計劃在2020年3月前彙報的次樣本數目為加權數字，2020年3月開始則以原始數字彙報。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為22.6分，其支持率為13%，反對率為80%，民望淨值為負66個百分點，民望從兩星期前的歷史低位止跌回升。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分較上月顯著上升3.2分至26.1，其支持率為13%，反對率為56%，民望淨值為負42個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分則較財政預算案發表當日大幅回落11.2分至32.3，支持率為22%，反對率為50%，民望淨值同樣大幅回落15個百分點至負28，但與一個月前的數字比較，民望則有所改善。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為16.7分，支持率為8%，反對率為71%，民望淨值為負64個百分點。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值，排名首位的是環境局局長黃錦星，然後是財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、發展局局長黃偉綸、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、創新及科技局局長楊偉雄、公務員事務局局長羅智光、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、食物及衛生局局長陳肇始、教育局局長楊潤雄、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權、民政事務局局長劉江華及保安局局長李家超。
對比一個月前，十三位局長中六人的支持率上升，六人下跌，一人不變，而沒有局長的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，羅致光、邱騰華、黃錦星、陳帆、楊偉雄、羅智光及聶德權屬於「表現一般」，劉怡翔及黃偉綸屬於「表現不彰」，張建宗、劉江華、楊潤雄、陳肇始及陳茂波屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥、鄭若驊及李家超屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 沒有官員 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 勞工及福利局局長羅致光（24%）
商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（23%） 環境局局長黃錦星（23%） 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（19%） 創新及科技局局長楊偉雄（18%） 公務員事務局局長羅智光（18%） 政制及內地事務局局長聶德權（13%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[11]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔（17%，44%）
發展局局長黃偉綸（16%，43%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 政務司司長張建宗（56%）
民政事務局局長劉江華（55%） 教育局局長楊潤雄（53%） 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（51%） 財政司司長陳茂波（50%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[11]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（80%）
律政司司長鄭若驊（71%） 保安局局長李家超（68%） |
[11] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的部分調查項目，上次調查日期為3-6/2/2020，而今次調查日期則為27/2-3/3/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 29/2/20 | 美國國務院及多名議員對黎智英、李卓人及楊森被捕表示關注 |
| 28/2/20 | 警方拘捕黎智英、李卓人及楊森 |
| 26/2/20 | 財政司司長陳茂波發表財政預算案 |
| 24/2/20 | 政府宣布將派包機接回滯留湖北港人 |
| 19/2/20 | 鑽石公主號郵輪首批港人乘坐包機回港 |
| 14/2/20 | 政府宣布成立防疫抗疫基金涉及250億元 |
| 13/2/20 | 夏寶龍被委任為港澳辦主任 |
| 11/2/20 | 青衣長康邨康美樓居民因武漢肺炎個案緊急疏散 |
| 9/2/20 | 香港現首宗武漢肺炎家族感染個案 |
| 8/2/20 | 強制措施首日隔離161人 |
| 7/2/20 | 經中國大陸來港人士需隔離14日措施生效 |
| 6/2/20 | 市民搶購生活必需品 |
| 5/2/20 | 政府宣布經中國大陸來港人士將需隔離14日 |
| 4/2/20 | 香港現首宗武漢肺炎死亡個案 |
| 3/2/20 | 政府宣布進一步關閉關口 |
數據分析
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為22.6分，民望淨值為負66個百分點，民望從兩星期前的歷史低位止跌回升。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的支持度評分較上月顯著上升3.2分至26.1，民望淨值為負42個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分則較財政預算案發表當日大幅回落11.2分至32.3，民望淨值同樣大幅回落15個百分點至負28，但與一個月前的數字比較，民望則有所改善。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，其支持度評分為16.7分，民望淨值為負64個百分點。
局長方面，十三位局長的民望淨值全部錄得負值。對比一個月前，十三位局長中六人的支持率上升，六人下跌，一人不變，而沒有局長的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差。
Mar 10, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on March 10, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late February to early March. Latest results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1 and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. His net popularity is negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 64 percentage points. As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error. The effective response rate of the survey is 67.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 27/2-3/3/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,015 (including 512 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 67.1% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 16-21/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 17-19/2/20 | 27/2-3/3/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,046 | 1,011 | 1,004 | 1,001 | 1,008 | 1,015 | -- |
| Response rate | 61.6% | 72.0% | 69.7% | 77.6% | 64.6% | 67.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8 | 20.3 | 18.2 | 22.6+/-1.9 | +4.4[4] |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 9%[4] | 13+/-2% | +4%[4] |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 81% | 80% | 80% | 81% | 83% | 80+/-3% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -68% | -66% | -66% | -68% | -74%[4] | -66+/-4% | +7%[4] |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 1-8/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 26/2/20[5] | 27/2-3/3/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[6] | 625-656 | 659-671 | 608-669 | 569-631 | 1,038 | 646-675 | -- |
| Response rate | 69.4% | 63.2% | 72.0% | 77.6% | 75.5% | 67.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 28.1[7] | 25.6 | 25.3 | 22.9 | -- | 26.1+/-2.2 | +3.2[7] |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
17% | 13% | 14% | 12% | -- | 13+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
46% | 54%[7] | 54% | 59% | -- | 56+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -29% | -40%[7] | -41% | -47% | -- | -42+/-6% | +4% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 27.2 | 24.8 | 27.6 | 26.6 | 43.5[7] | 32.3+/-2.5 | -11.2[7] |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 16% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 27[7] | 22+/-3% | -6%[7] |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 57% | 57% | 56% | 55% | 41[7] | 50+/-4% | +9%[7] |
| Net approval rate | -40% | -40% | -37% | -36% | -14%[7] | -28+/-6% | -15%[7] |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 14.1 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 15.9 | -- | 16.7+/-1.9 | +0.8 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 7% | 9% | 8% | 9% | -- | 8+/-2% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 76% | 75% | 77% | 71%[7] | -- | 71+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -68% | -66% | -69% | -61%[7] | -- | -64+/-5% | -2% |
[5] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.
[6] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[8]:
| Date of survey | 28/11-3/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 3-6/2/20 | 27/2-3/3/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[9] | 588-638 | 588-620 | 578-609 | 595-634 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.2% | 72.0% | 77.6% | 67.1% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 23% | 24% | 26% | 23+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 33%[10] | 30% | 29% | 31+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -11% | -6% | -3% | -9+/-6% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 18% | 18% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 24% | 23% | 26% | 26+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -6% | -5% | -9% | -9+/-5% | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 26% | 25% | 23% | 23+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 29% | 38%[10] | 41% | 33+/-4% | -8%[10] |
| Net approval rate | -4% | -13%[10] | -18% | -10+/-6% | +8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 17% | 16% | 15% | 16+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 30% | 32% | 30% | 27+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -13% | -16% | -15% | -11+/-5% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 20% | 22% | 20% | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 36% | 41% | 36% | 41+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -16% | -19% | -16% | -17+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 16% | 16% | 16% | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 32% | 38%[10] | 35% | 37+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -16% | -22% | -18% | -19+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 18% | 18% | 22% | 18+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 42% | 47% | 42% | 41+/-4% | -1% |
| Net approval rate | -23% | -29% | -20%[10] | -23+/-6% | -3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 17% | 18% | 20% | 19+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 50% | 50% | 49% | 44+/-4% | -5% |
| Net approval rate | -34% | -31% | -29% | -25+/-6% | +5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 22% | 21% | 19% | 23+/-3% | +4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 43%[10] | 45% | 54%[10] | 51+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | -21%[10] | -24% | -35%[10] | -28+/-7% | +7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 12% | 11% | 16%[10] | 19+/-3% | +3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 62% | 66% | 59%[10] | 53+/-4% | -6%[10] |
| Net approval rate | -50% | -55% | -43%[10] | -34+/-6% | +8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 16% | 11%[10] | 16%[10] | 13+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 43%[10] | 44% | 45% | 48+/-4% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -27%[10] | -32% | -29% | -35+/-6% | -6% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 14% | 14% | 12% | 12+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 58% | 56% | 59% | 55+/-4% | -4% |
| Net approval rate | -44% | -42% | -46% | -42+/-6% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 15%[10] | 14% | 15% | 13+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 66%[10] | 68% | 65% | 68+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -51%[10] | -54% | -50% | -54+/-6% | -4% |
[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[9] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her approval rate is 13%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1. His approval rate is 13%, disapproval rate 56%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. The approval rate is 22%, disapproval rate 50%, thus a net popularity of negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks, approval rate 8%, disapproval rate 71%, giving a net popularity of negative 64 percentage points.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all of them register negative net approval rates. The top position goes to Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, followed by Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Security John Lee.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Law Chi-kwong, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Frank Chan, Nicholas Yang, Joshua Law and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Matthew Cheung, Lau Kong-wah, Kevin Yeung, Sophia Chan and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Nil |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Nil |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (24%)
Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (23%) Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (23%) Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (19%) Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (18%) Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (18%) Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (13%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (17%, 44%)
Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (16%, 43%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (56%)
Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (55%) Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (53%) Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (51%) FS Paul Chan Mo-po (50%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[11] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (80%)
SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (71%) Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (68%) |
[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 February, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 27 February to 3 March, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 29/2/20 | US Department of State and some councillors express concern over the arrest of Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 26/2/20 | Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
| 24/2/20 | The government announces it will arrange charter flights to bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei. |
| 19/2/20 | The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight. |
| 14/2/20 | The government announces the setting up of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 13/2/20 | Xia Baolong is appointed the Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office. |
| 11/2/20 | Residents of Hong Mei House, Cheung Hong Estate in Tsing Yi evacuate due to Wuhan pneumonia cases. |
| 9/2/20 | First case of Wuhan pneumonia infection within family is reported in Hong Kong. |
| 8/2/20 | Policy puts 161 people in mandatory quarantine. |
| 7/2/20 | The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect. |
| 6/2/20 | People rush to purchase daily necessities. |
| 5/2/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from mainland China will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 4/2/20 | First death from Wuhan pneumonia is reported in Hong Kong. |
| 3/2/20 | The government announces further closure of borders. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.6 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Her popularity figures have stopped falling and significantly rebounded from the historical lows registered two weeks ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung has significantly increased by 3.2 marks since last month to 26.1 and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan has fallen back sharply by 11.2 marks from the day the Budget was delivered to 32.3. His net popularity is negative 28 percentage points with a similar sharp drop of 15 percentage points. If compared to the figures a month ago, however, his popularities have improved. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 16.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 64 percentage points.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them register negative net approval rates. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 6 among 13 Directors have gone up, 6 have gone down while 1 remains unchanged, and none of them have changed beyond sampling error.
