2020年1月31日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
2020年1月31日 新聞公報
民研計劃發放特首和特區政府民望及民情指數
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於一月中由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,004名香港居民。調查顯示，在本港確診首宗武漢冠狀病毒個案前，特首林鄭月娥的評分為20.8分，民望淨值為負66個百分點，兩者與一月上旬分別不大。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負60個百分點，信任淨值為負50個百分點，後者為1992年調查開展以來最差。市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負47、負52及負79個百分點，對現時經濟狀況的滿意淨值創2003年以來新低。民情指數方面，最新數字為52.2，較一月上旬下跌2.8點。調查的實效回應比率為69.7%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-1.9。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 16-21/1/2020 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,004 (包括501個固網及503個手機樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 69.7% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-1.9 |
| 加權方法 | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 數字為調查的總樣本數目，個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
特首及特區政府民望
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 16-21/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | 1,011 | 1,004 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | 72.0% | 69.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8+/-1.9 | -0.7 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 14+/-2% | -1% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81% | 80% | 80+/-3% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66+/-4% | -1% |
[4] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是特區政府的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 635 | 688 | 668 | 591 | 646 | 597 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特區政府表現滿意率[5] | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15+/-3% | +1% |
| 特區政府表現不滿率[5] | 77%[6] | 76% | 79% | 77% | 76% | 75+/-4% | -1% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -63%[6] | -63% | -69% | -66% | -62% | -60+/-6% | +2% |
| 平均量值[5] | 1.8[6] | 1.8 | 1.7[6] | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對特區政府信任程度的最新結果：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 555 | 632 | 623 | 607 | 618 | 641 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 68.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 信任特區政府比率[7] | 29% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 19+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| 不信任特區政府比率[7] | 60% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 69+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| 信任淨值 | -31% | -37% | -44% | -41% | -39% | -50+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| 平均量值[7] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.2[8] |
[7] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是市民對社會狀況的最新評價：
| 調查日期 | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,023 | 1,061 | 1,038 | 1,008 | 1,046 | 866 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 現時經濟狀況滿意率[9] | 25% | 19%[10] | 19% | 20% | 17% | 16+/-2% | -1% |
| 現時經濟狀況不滿率[9] | 53%[10] | 55% | 61%[10] | 57%[10] | 57% | 63+/-3% | +6%[10] |
| 滿意率淨值 | -29%[10] | -35% | -42%[10] | -37% | -40% | -47+/-5% | -7%[10] |
| 平均量值[9] | 2.5[10] | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1[10] |
| 現時民生狀況滿意率[9] | 16%[10] | 13% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 17+/-3% | +2% |
| 現時民生狀況不滿率[9] | 69%[10] | 70% | 71% | 69% | 68% | 68+/-3% | -- |
| 滿意率淨值 | -54%[10] | -57% | -57% | -52% | -53% | -52+/-5% | +2% |
| 平均量值[9] | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
| 現時政治狀況滿意率[9] | 5% | 3%[10] | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6+/-2% | +2%[10] |
| 現時政治狀況不滿率[9] | 88% | 85% | 88% | 83%[10] | 88%[10] | 85+/-2% | -3% |
| 滿意率淨值 | -83% | -82% | -85% | -79%[10] | -84%[10] | -79+/-4% | +5%[10] |
| 平均量值[9] | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5[10] | 1.4 | 1.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[9] 數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度，以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分，再求取樣本平均數值。
[10] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為20.8分，其支持率為14%，反對率為80%，民望淨值為負66個百分點，全部數字與兩星期前分別不大。
特區政府方面，最新滿意率為15%，不滿率為75%，滿意率淨值為負60個百分點，平均量值為1.8分，即整體上接近「幾不滿」。信任程度方面，最新的信任比率為19%，不信任比率為69%，信任淨值為負50個百分點，平均量值為2.0分，即整體上接近「幾不信任」。以上關於信任程度的數字均為1992年調查開展以來最差。
至於市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的滿意程度，最新滿意率分別為16%、17%及6%，而滿意淨值就分別為負47、負52及負79個百分點。經濟狀況和民生狀況的平均量值分別為2.2及2.1，即整體上接近「幾不滿」；政治狀況的平均量值為1.5，即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「好不滿」之間。市民對現時經濟狀況的滿意淨值創2003年以來新低。
民情指數
民研計劃制定「民情指數」（PSI），目的在於量化香港市民對香港社會的情緒反應，以解釋及預視社會出現集體行動的可能性。民情指數包涵了「政通」和「人和」兩個概念，分別以「政評數值（GA）」和「社評數值（SA）」顯示。「政評數值（GA）」泛指市民對整體政府管治的表現評價，而「社評數值（SA）」則泛指市民對整體社會狀況的評價，分別由四及六項民意數字組合而成。指數本身及兩項數值均以0至200顯示，100代表正常。
以下為民情指數、政評數值及社評數值走勢圖：
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| 最新數值 | 民情指數：52.2 (-2.8) | 政評數值：51.0 (-2.5) | 社評數值：56.1 (-2.5) |
以下是民情指數、政評數值、社評數值，及十項基礎民意數字的近期數值：
| 截數日期 | 8/11/19 | 21/11/19 | 3/12/19 | 18/12/19 | 8/1/20 | 21/1/20 | 最新變化 |
| 民情指數 | 50.2 | 54.2 | 54.2 | 54.3 | 55.0 | 52.2 | -2.8 |
| 政評數值 | 49.4 | 51.1 | 51.0 | 52.3 | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 |
| 特首評分 | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8 | -0.7 |
| 特首民望淨值 | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66% | -1% |
| 政府滿意程度平均量值 | 1.7[11] | 1.7 | 1.7[11] | 1.8 | 1.8[11] | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| 政府信任程度平均量值 | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.0 | -0.2 |
| 社評數值 | 54.2[11] | 59.7 | 59.7[11] | 58.6 | 58.6[11] | 56.1 | -2.5 |
| 政治狀況滿意程度 | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | 1.5[11] | 1.4 | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | +0.1 |
| 政治狀況成份指標權數 | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
| 經濟狀況滿意程度 | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| 經濟狀況成份指標權數 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.32 | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | -- |
| 民生狀況滿意程度 | 2.0[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | -- |
| 民生狀況成份指標權數 | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
[11] 當有關數字沒有更新時，民研計劃會採用最近一次已公佈的數字替代。
各項指數的具體數值，可按下表理解：
| 指數得分 | 百分位數 | 指數得分 | 百分位數 |
| 140-200 | 最高1% | 0-60 | 最低1% |
| 125 | 最高5% | 75 | 最低5% |
| 120 | 最高10% | 80 | 最低10% |
| 110 | 最高25% | 90 | 最低25% |
| 100為正常數值，即半數在上，半數在下 | |||
民情指數較一月上旬下跌2.8點至52.2，數字可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。民情指數的兩個成份數值中，反映市民對整體政府管治表現評價的政評數值下跌2.5點至51.0，而反映市民對整體社會狀況評價的社評數值亦下跌2.5點至56.1。兩者均可以視為過去逾二十年來最差的1個百分比。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為13-18/12/2019，而今次調查日期則為16-21/1/2020，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字：
| 21/1/20 | 武漢肺炎繼續急速擴散並傳入台灣 |
| 20/1/20 | 武漢肺炎於中國急速擴散 |
| 19/1/20 | 中環集會演變成警民衝突 |
| 14/1/20 | 政府推出十項民生政策 |
| 13/1/20 | 政府擬向海洋公園提供過百億資助 |
| 11/1/20 | 蔡英文勝出台灣總統選舉 |
| 9/1/20 | 專家指武漢肺炎由新型冠狀病毒引起 |
| 7/1/20 | 政府將武漢肺炎列入須呈報疾病 |
| 4/1/20 | 駱惠寧被委任為中聯辦主任 |
| 3/1/20 | 武漢當局公布肺炎個案增至44宗 |
| 2/1/20 | 由武漢返港女子出現肺炎徵狀 |
| 1/1/20 | 民間人權陣線舉辦元旦大遊行 |
| 31/12/19 | 除夕夜多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 28/12/19 | 來自中國大陸的旅行團數量大跌 |
| 25/12/19 | 聖誕節期間多區出現示威抗爭活動 |
| 16/12/19 | 林鄭月娥到北京述職 |
數據分析
調查顯示，在本港確診首宗武漢冠狀病毒個案前，特首林鄭月娥的評分為20.8分，民望淨值為負66個百分點，兩者與一月上旬分別不大。特區政府的最新滿意率淨值為負60個百分點，信任淨值為負50個百分點，後者為1992年調查開展以來最差。市民對現時經濟、民生及政治狀況的滿意淨值分別為負47、負52及負79個百分點，對現時經濟狀況的滿意淨值創2003年以來新低。
民情指數方面，最新數字為52.2，較一月上旬下跌2.8點。
Jan 31, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
Press Release on January 31, 2020
POP releases popularity of CE and SAR Government
and Public Sentiment Index
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-January. Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in HK, the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 20.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from early January. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 60 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The latter is at its worst since the survey series began in 1992. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January. The effective response rate of the survey is 69.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 16-21/1/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 501 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 69.7% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | 1,011 | 1,004 | -- |
| Response rate | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | 72.0% | 69.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8+/-1.9 | -0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 14+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81% | 80% | 80+/-3% | -- |
| Net approval rate | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66+/-4% | -1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 635 | 688 | 668 | 591 | 646 | 597 | -- |
| Response rate | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15+/-3% | +1% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 77%[6] | 76% | 79% | 77% | 76% | 75+/-4% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -63%[6] | -63% | -69% | -66% | -62% | -60+/-6% | +2% |
| Mean value[5] | 1.8[6] | 1.8 | 1.7[6] | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 555 | 632 | 623 | 607 | 618 | 641 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 68.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[7] | 29% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 19+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] | 60% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 69+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| Net trust | -31% | -37% | -44% | -41% | -39% | -50+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Mean value[7] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.2[8] |
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,023 | 1,061 | 1,038 | 1,008 | 1,046 | 866 | -- |
| Response rate | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
25% | 19%[10] | 19% | 20% | 17% | 16+/-2% | -1% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
53%[10] | 55% | 61%[10] | 57%[10] | 57% | 63+/-3% | +6%[10] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -29%[10] | -35% | -42%[10] | -37% | -40% | -47+/-5% | -7%[10] |
| Mean value[9] | 2.5[10] | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1[10] |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
16%[10] | 13% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 17+/-3% | +2% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
69%[10] | 70% | 71% | 69% | 68% | 68+/-3% | -- |
| Net satisfaction rate | -54%[10] | -57% | -57% | -52% | -53% | -52+/-5% | +2% |
| Mean value[9] | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | -- |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
5% | 3%[10] | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6+/-2% | +2%[10] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
88% | 85% | 88% | 83%[10] | 88%[10] | 85+/-2% | -3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -83% | -82% | -85% | -79%[10] | -84%[10] | -79+/-4% | +5%[10] |
| Mean value[9] | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5[10] | 1.4 | 1.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 20.8 marks. Her approval rate is 14%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 15%, whereas 75% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 60 percentage points. The mean score is 1.8, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 19% of the respondents expressed trust, 69% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. All of these figures regarding the level of trust are at their worst since the survey series began in 1992.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 16%, 17% and 6% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of economic condition and livelihood condition are 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 52.2 (-2.8) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 51.0 (-2.5) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 56.1 (-2.5) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 8/11/19 | 21/11/19 | 3/12/19 | 18/12/19 | 8/1/20 | 21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 50.2 | 54.2 | 54.2 | 54.3 | 55.0 | 52.2 | -2.8 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 49.4 | 51.1 | 51.0 | 52.3 | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 |
| Rating of CE | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8 | -0.7 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66% | -1% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 1.7[11] | 1.7 | 1.7[11] | 1.8 | 1.8[11] | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.0 | -0.2 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 54.2[11] | 59.7 | 59.7[11] | 58.6 | 58.6[11] | 56.1 | -2.5 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | 1.5[11] | 1.4 | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.32 | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | -- |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.0[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | -- |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | -- |
[11] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 2.5 points to 51.0, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment also decreases by 2.5 points to 56.1. They can both be considered as among the worst 1%.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 13 to 18 December, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 21 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan. |
| 20/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 14/1/20 | The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people. |
| 13/1/20 | The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy. |
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
| 9/1/20 | Experts say Wuhan pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus. |
| 7/1/20 | The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases. |
| 4/1/20 | Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office. |
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 2/1/20 | A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 28/12/19 | Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in HK, the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 20.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from early January. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 60 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The latter is at its worst since the survey series began in 1992. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January.
