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民研計劃發放2019年回顧及2020年前瞻調查結果 (2019-12-30)

POP releases results of the 2019 review and 2020 forecast survey (2019-12-30)

2019年12月30日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料

民研計劃發放2019年回顧及2020年前瞻調查結果

特別宣佈

發佈會回顧

  1. 香港民意研究計劃(香港民研)前身為香港大學民意研究計劃(港大民研)。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
  2. 香港民研在每年的年底,都會發放《年終回顧前瞻》調查系列,供大眾參考。今天發放的年終回顧是本年度發放的最後一個調查系列。
  3. 民研計劃在二十八年前開展澳門研究,包括定期調查及選舉研究,希望逐步建立一套地區性的科學民意調查機制、為日後的比較研究提供數據。二十八年過後,我們希望交由公民社會決定是否繼續進行澳門調查。我們決定透過眾籌平台 https://www.collaction.hk/project/story/1300/,以二十四萬元為目標,讓市民大眾尤其是澳門居民決定是否繼續進行調查。達標的話,我們會迅速進行新的一輪調查。有關以往澳門研究的詳情,請參閱以下網址:https://wp.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index。

公報簡要

民研計劃於十二月下旬由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,067名香港居民。結果顯示,巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意淨值為負75個百分點,為1992年底調查開展以來最差。展望將來,對來年香港整體發展的樂觀淨值為負36個百分點,亦創2008年底以來新低。另外,18%被訪市民認為特區政府來年最需要處理政制問題;14%認為最需要處理警察相關問題或成立獨立調查委員會;11%認為最需要回應民意或五大訴求;8%認為最需要處理示威者相關問題或止暴制亂;而認為最需要處理房屋問題者,則較去年同期大幅下跌33個百分點至8%,創2009年底以來新低。倘若要在繁榮、廉潔乾淨、公平、自由或福利社會中作出選擇,最多人希望香港成為一個公平的社會,其次為自由、廉潔乾淨和繁榮社會。個人層面方面,巿民在過去一年的快樂淨值為負38個百分點,是1992年底調查開展以來首次出現負值,並較去年同期急劇下跌79個百分點。對於來年個人發展的展望,樂觀淨值為負7個百分點,為1993年底相關問題開展以來最低。至於市民新年願望的內容,與社會相關的佔65%,創1992年底調查開展以來新高,與世界和平或友愛相關的佔12%,與個人相關的則只佔9%,創調查開展以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為61.6%。在95%置信水平下,調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-3%,淨值誤差不超過+/-5%,評分誤差不超過+/-0.1。

樣本資料

調查日期 18-23/12/2019
調查方法 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問
訪問對象 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民
成功樣本數目[1] 1,067 (包括526個固網及541個手機樣本)
實效回應比率[2] 61.6%
抽樣誤差[3] 在95%置信水平下,百分比誤差不超過+/-3%,淨值誤差不超過+/-5%,評分誤差不超過+/-0.1
加權方法 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》,而教育程度(最高就讀程度)及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》(2018年版)。

[1]    數字為調查的總樣本數目,個別題目則可能只涉及次樣本。有關數字請參閱下列數表內列出的樣本數目。

[2]    民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料,2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月,民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法,因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。

[3]    此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平,是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次,則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差,傳媒引用百分比數字時,應避免使用小數點,在引用評分數字時,則可以使用一個小數點。

最新數據

以下是市民對2019年回顧及2020年前瞻的數字,與近年的調查結果並列:

調查日期 19-22/12/16 18-19/12/17 17-20/12/18 18-23/12/19 最新變化
樣本數目 1,009 648 1,000 1,067 --
回應比率 70.9% 64.9% 60.6% 61.6% --
最新結果 結果 結果 結果 結果及誤差 --
對香港去年發展的評價:滿意率[4] 23% 38%[5] 36% 9+/-2% -27%[5]
對香港去年發展的評價:不滿率[4] 52%[5] 35%[5] 37% 84+/-2% +47%[5]
滿意率淨值 -29% 3%[5] -1% -75+/-4% -74%[5]
平均量值[4] 2.5 3.0[5] 2.9 1.6+/-0.1 -1.3[5]
預期來年香港整體發展會改善之比率 39%[5] 39% 23%[5] 23+/-3% --
預期來年香港整體發展會惡化之比率 26%[5] 29% 50%[5] 59+/-3% +10%[5]
樂觀淨值 13%[5] 10% -27%[5] -36+/-5% -10%[5]
認為政府來年最需要處理……之比率     --    
-  政制問題 15%[5] 15% 6%[5] 18+/-2% +12%[5]
-   警察相關問題/成立獨立調查委員會 -- -- -- 14+/-2% --
-  回應民意/五大訴求 -- -- -- 11+/-2% --
-  示威者相關問題/止暴制亂 -- -- -- 8+/-2% --
-  房屋問題 30%[5] 40%[5] 41% 8+/-2% -33%[5]
-  經濟問題 15%[5] 11%[5] 12% 7+/-2% -5%[5]
-  治安問題 1% <1% 1% 6+/-1% +5%[5]
-  反修例風波 -- -- -- 6+/-1% --
-  政治問題 -- -- -- 4+/-1% --
-  民生問題 -- -- -- 2+/-1% --
-  福利問題 4% 2%[5] 4%[5] 2+/-1% -3%[5]
-  高官問責/下台 -- -- -- 1+/-1% --
-  政府自身問題 -- -- -- 1+/-1% --
-  教育問題 2%[5] 5%[5] 3%[5] 1+/-1% -2%[5]
-  醫療/衛生問題 5%[5] 8%[5] 11%[5] 1+/-1% -10%[5]
希望香港成為公平社會之比率 21% 24% 24% 27+/-3% +3%
希望香港成為自由社會之比率 16% 14% 15% 25+/-3% +9%[5]
希望香港成為廉潔乾淨社會之比率 31%[5] 29% 26% 22+/-3% -4%[5]
希望香港成為繁榮社會之比率 21% 22% 19% 20+/-2% +1%
希望香港成為福利社會之比率 9% 8% 13%[5] 4+/-1% -10%[5]
於過去一年感到生活快樂之比率[4] 50% 56%[5] 55% 20+/-2% -36%[5]
於過去一年感到生活不快樂之比率[4] 20%[5] 20% 15%[5] 58+/-3% +43%[5]
快樂比率淨值 31% 36% 40% -38+/-5% -79%[5]
平均量值[4] 3.3 3.4 3.5[5] 2.3+/-0.1 -1.2[5]
預計來年個人發展較去年佳之比率 44%[5] 39%[5] 39% 31+/-3% -8%[5]
預計來年個人發展較去年差之比率 13%[5] 15% 17% 38+/-3% +21%[5]
樂觀淨值 30%[5] 24%[5] 22% -7+/-5% -29%[5]
新年願望:與社會相關之比率
(例如:經濟、民生、政治和其他)
48%[5] 38%[5] 39% 65+/-3% +26%[5]
新年願望:與世界和平或友愛相關之比率 13% 16% 8%[5] 12+/-2% +4%[5]
新年願望:與個人相關之比率 (例如:健康、心境、事業、學業、財富、家庭、愛情、婚姻、朋友和其他) 26%[5] 31%[5] 34% 9+/-2% -25%[5]
沒有新年願望之比率 9% 9% 9% 8+/-2% -2%

[4]    數字採自五等量尺。平均量值是把答案按照正面程度,以1分最低5分最高量化成為1、2、3、4、5分,再求取樣本平均數值。

[5]    該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過,變化在統計學上成立與否,並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義,而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。

[6]    該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差,是由於加權方法改變。如果以舊有加權方法處理數據,則變化並未超過抽樣誤差。

週年調查顯示,巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意比率為9%,不滿比率為84%,淨值為負75個百分點,平均量值為1.6,即整體上介乎「幾不滿」及「好不滿」之間,情況為1992年底調查開展以來最差。展望將來,23%預期來年香港的整體發展將有所改善,認為會惡化的則佔59%,樂觀淨值為負36個百分點,創2008年底以來新低。

就特區政府來年最需要處理的問題,18%被訪市民認為是政制問題;14%認為最需要處理警察相關問題或成立獨立調查委員會;11%認為最需要回應民意或五大訴求;8%認為最需要處理示威者相關問題或止暴制亂;而認為最需要處理房屋問題者,則較去年同期大幅下跌33個百分點至8%,創2009年底以來新低。

倘若要在繁榮、廉潔乾淨、公平、自由或福利社會中作出選擇,27%表示最希望香港成為一個公平的社會,其次為自由社會,為數25%,是1993年底調查開展以來的歷史新高,而選擇廉潔乾淨和繁榮社會的,就分別佔22%和20%,最希望香港成為福利社會的則只有4%,較去年同期明顯下跌10個百分點。

個人層面方面,20%巿民表示在過去一年活得快樂,58%表示不快樂,快樂淨值為負38個百分點,是1992年底調查開展以來首次出現負值,並較去年同期急劇下跌79個百分點;有關平均量值為2.3,即整體上介乎「一半半」及「幾不快樂」之間。對於來年的展望,31%預計其個人發展將會較去年為佳,38%則認為會較差,樂觀淨值為負7個百分點,為1993年底相關問題開展以來最低。

至於市民新年願望的內容,與社會相關的佔65%,創1992年底調查開展以來新高,與世界和平或友愛相關的佔12%,與個人相關的則只佔9%,創調查開展以來新低。

數據分析

週年調查顯示,巿民對香港過去一年整體發展的滿意淨值為負75個百分點,為1992年底調查開展以來最差。展望將來,對來年香港整體發展的樂觀淨值為負36個百分點,亦創2008年底以來新低。

另外,18%被訪市民認為特區政府來年最需要處理政制問題;14%認為最需要處理警察相關問題或成立獨立調查委員會;11%認為最需要回應民意或五大訴求;8%認為最需要處理示威者相關問題或止暴制亂;而認為最需要處理房屋問題者,則較去年同期大幅下跌33個百分點至8%,創2009年底以來新低。

倘若要在繁榮、廉潔乾淨、公平、自由或福利社會中作出選擇,最多人希望香港成為一個公平的社會,其次為自由、廉潔乾淨和繁榮社會。

個人層面方面,巿民在過去一年的快樂淨值為負38個百分點,是1992年底調查開展以來首次出現負值,並較去年同期急劇下跌79個百分點。對於來年個人發展的展望,樂觀淨值為負7個百分點,為1993年底相關問題開展以來最低。

至於市民新年願望的內容,與社會相關的佔65%,創1992年底調查開展以來新高,與世界和平或友愛相關的佔12%,與個人相關的則只佔9%,創調查開展以來新低。

Dec 30, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases results of the 2019 review and 2020 forecast survey

Special Announcements

  1. The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
  2. HKPOP’s usual practice is to release its “year-end survey series” before the end of each year for public consumption. This “Year-end Review” is the last survey series to release this year.
  3. POP started the Macau Study Series twenty-eight years ago. It included regular surveys and electoral studies, in hopes of building towards a regional, scientific public opinion survey mechanism, creating a robust systemic database for future comparative studies. After 28 years, we would like to let the people (especially Macau people) decide whether we should continue or not. We are using the crowdfunding platform  https://www.collaction.hk/project/story/1300/  with a goal of HKD 240,000 to let people decide. If the target is reached, we will swiftly conduct our next survey. For details of our previous Macau studies, please visit: https://wp.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,067 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of December. Latest results show that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 75 percentage points, the worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at negative 36 percentage points, also a record low since the end of 2008. Besides, 18% considered constitutional development to be the most important issue that the government should tackle next year; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009. If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, most would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free, corruption-free and prosperous society. At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 38 percentage points, the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993. As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started. The effective response rate of the survey is 61.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey : 18-23/12/2019
Survey method : Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population : Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1] : 1,067 (including 526 landline and 541 mobile samples)
Effective response rate[2] : 61.6%
Sampling error[3] : Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method : Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1]    This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]    Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3]    All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

Herewith the figures of 2019 review and 2020 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey 19-22/12/16 18-19/12/17 17-20/12/18 18-23/12/19 Latest change
Sample size 1,009 648 1,000 1,067 --
Response rate 70.9% 64.9% 60.6% 61.6% --
Latest findings Finding Finding Finding Finding & error --
Satisfied with HK’s development in the year past[4] 23% 38%[5] 36% 9+/-2% -27%[5]
Dissatisfied with HK’s development in the year past[4] 52%[5] 35%[5] 37% 84+/-2% +47%[5]
Net satisfaction rate -29% 3%[5] -1% -75+/-4% -74%[5]
Mean value[4] 2.5 3.0[5] 2.9 1.6+/-0.1 -1.3[5]
Expected HK’s development to be better next year 39%[5] 39% 23%[5] 23+/-3% --
Expected HK’s development to be worse next year 26%[5] 29% 50%[5] 59+/-3% +10%[5]
Net optimism 13%[5] 10% -27%[5] -36+/-5% -10%[5]
Perceived …… to be the most important issue to be tackled by the government next year --    
-  Constitutional development 15%[5] 15% 6%[5] 18+/-2% +12%[5]
-  Police-related issues / setting up of an independent commission of inquiry -- -- -- 14+/-2% --
-  Responding to public opinion / the five demands -- -- -- 11+/-2% --
-  Protesters-related issues / stopping violence and disorder -- -- -- 8+/-2% --
-  Housing 30%[5] 40%[5] 41% 8+/-2% -33%[5]
-  Economy 15%[5] 11%[5] 12% 7+/-2% -5%[5]
-  Law and order 1% <1% 1% 6+/-1% +5%[5]
-  Anti-extradition bill incident -- -- -- 6+/-1% --
-  Politics -- -- -- 4+/-1% --
-  Livelihood -- -- -- 2+/-1% --
-  Welfare 4% 2%[5] 4%[5] 2+/-1% -3%[5]
-  Principal officials to be held accountable / to step down -- -- -- 1+/-1% --
-  Government’s own problem -- -- -- 1+/-1% --
-  Education 2%[5] 5%[5] 3%[5] 1+/-1% -2%[5]
-  Medical / health 5%[5] 8%[5] 11%[5] 1+/-1% -10%[5]
Wished HK to become a fair society 21% 24% 24% 27+/-3% +3%
Wished HK to become a free society 16% 14% 15% 25+/-3% +9%[5]
Wished HK to become a corruption-free society 31%[5] 29% 26% 22+/-3% -4%[5]
Wished HK to become a prosperous society 21% 22% 19% 20+/-2% +1%
Wished HK to become a welfare society 9% 8% 13%[5] 4+/-1% -10%[5]
Respondents who were happy in the year past[4] 50% 56%[5] 55% 20+/-2% -36%[5]
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past[4] 20%[5] 20% 15%[5] 58+/-3% +43%[5]
Net happiness value 31% 36% 40% -38+/-5% -79%[5]
Mean value[4] 3.3 3.4 3.5[5] 2.3+/-0.1 -1.2[5]
Expected personal development to become better next year 44%[5] 39%[5] 39% 31+/-3% -8%[5]
Expected personal development to become worse next year 13%[5] 15% 17% 38+/-3% +21%[5]
Net optimism 30%[5] 24%[5] 22% -7+/-5% -29%[5]
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g.  economic related, people’s livelihood, political related and others) 48%[5] 38%[5] 39% 65+/-3% +26%[5]
New Year wishes: World peace-related 13% 16% 8%[5] 12+/-2% +4%[5]
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues) 26%[5] 31%[5] 34% 9+/-2% -25%[5]
No special wish 9% 9% 9% 8+/-2% -2%

[4]    Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[5]    The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

[6]    Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.

Our annual survey shows that 9% were satisfied with Hong Kong’s development in the year past, 84% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 75 percentage points. The mean score is 1.6, which is between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. The situation is at its worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, 23% expected Hong Kong’s development in general to become better next year, 59% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of negative 36 percentage points, registering a record low since the end of 2008.

Regarding the most pressing issues that the government should tackle next year, 18% considered constitutional development the most important; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009.

If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, 27% would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free society, as chosen by 25% of respondents, registering its historical high since the survey series began in end of 1993. Percentages of those who chose corruption-free and prosperous society were 22% and 20% respectively. Only 4% wished Hong Kong to become a welfare society, registering a significant 10-percentage-points drop from that of last year.

At an individual level, 20% said they lived a happy life in the year past, 58% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness value of negative 38 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. The mean score is 2.3, which is between “half-half” and “quite unhappy” in general. As for the coming year, 31% believed their personal development would become better, 38% thought they would be worse off, giving a net optimism of negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993.

As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started.

Data Analysis

Our annual survey shows that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 75 percentage points, the worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at negative 36 percentage points, also a record low since the end of 2008.

Besides, 18% considered constitutional development to be the most important issue that the government should tackle next year; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009.

If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, most would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free, corruption-free and prosperous society.

At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 38 percentage points, the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993.

As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started.

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