2019年10月8日香港民意研究所發佈會 – 傳媒參考資料
發佈會回顧
民研計劃發放特首及問責司局長民望數字
特別宣佈
香港民意研究計劃（香港民研）前身為香港大學民意研究計劃（港大民研）。公報內的「民研計劃」指的可以是香港民研或其前身港大民研。
公報簡要
民研計劃於九月底至十月初由真實訪問員以隨機抽樣電話訪問方式成功訪問了1,004名香港居民。結果顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為22.3分，民望淨值為負65個百分點，兩者均再創其上任特首以來新低。司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分為31.8分，民望淨值為負24個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為26.9分，民望淨值為負42個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，支持度評分為14.7分，民望淨值為負69個百分點。除陳茂波的民望淨值外，各司長的支持度評分和民望淨值均創其上任以來新低。局長方面，除食物及衛生局局長陳肇始和環境局局長黃錦星外，其餘十一位局長的民望都出現負值。對比一個月前，十二位局長的支持率淨值下跌，只有一人上升，當中教育局局長楊潤雄、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權和發展局局長黃偉綸的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，分別比上月下跌18、12、10、9和8個百分點。除環境局局長黃錦星和創新及科技局局長楊偉雄外，其他局長的支持率淨值均創其上任以來新低。調查的實效回應比率為64.5%。在95%置信水平下，調查的百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.3。
樣本資料
| 調查日期 | ： | 30/9-3/10/2019 |
| 調查方法 | ： | 由真實訪問員進行隨機抽樣電話訪問 |
| 訪問對象 | ： | 18歲或以上操粵語的香港居民 |
| 成功樣本數目[1] | ： | 1,004 (包括504個固網及500個手機號碼樣本) |
| 實效回應比率[2] | ： | 64.5% |
| 抽樣誤差[3] | ： | 在95%置信水平下，百分比誤差不超過+/-4%，淨值誤差不超過+/-6%，評分誤差不超過+/-2.3 |
| 加權方法[4] | ： | 按照政府統計處提供的統計數字以「反覆多重加權法」作出調整。全港人口年齡及性別分佈統計數字來自《二零一八年年中人口數字》，而教育程度（最高就讀程度）及經濟活動身分統計數字則來自《香港的女性及男性 - 主要統計數字》（2018年版）。 |
[1] 調查的固網及手機樣本比例於2018年4月更新為二比一，2019年7月再更新為一比一。
[2] 民研計劃在2017年9月前以「整體回應比率」彙報樣本資料，2017年9月開始則以「實效回應比率」彙報。2018年7月，民研計劃再調整實效回應比率的計算方法，因此改變前後的回應比率不能直接比較。
[3] 此公報中所有誤差數字均以95%置信水平計算。95%置信水平，是指倘若以不同隨機樣本重複進行有關調查100次，則95次各自計算出的誤差範圍會包含人口真實數字。由於調查數字涉及抽樣誤差，傳媒引用百分比數字時，應避免使用小數點，在引用評分數字時，則可以使用一個小數點。
[4] 過往，手機樣本會按照固網樣本中民情指數的基礎數據進行調整，再作統計，但由2018年7月起，民研計劃再微調加權方法，不再將固網樣本及手機樣本分開處理，手機樣本亦不再按照固網樣本中民情指數的基礎數據作調整，整體效果是手機樣本的重要性略為提升。
最新數據
以下是特首林鄭月娥的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 17-19/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 1,002 | 1,015 | 1,023 | 1,046 | 1,061 | 1,004 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 59.8% | 62.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及 誤差 |
-- |
| 特首林鄭月娥評分 | 30.1[5] | 27.9 | 24.6[5] | 25.4 | 24.9 | 22.3+/-1.9 | -2.6 |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首支持率 | 21%[5] | 20% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 15+/-2% | -3% |
| 林鄭月娥出任特首反對率 | 70%[5] | 72% | 76%[5] | 75% | 74% | 80+/-3% | +6%[5] |
| 支持率淨值 | -49%[5] | -51% | -59%[5] | -55% | -57% | -65+/-5% | -8%[5] |
[5] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責司長的最新民望數字：
| 調查日期 | 6-9/5/19 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 592-642 | 553-616 | 583-641 | 574-580 | 640-679 | 584-649 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 63.2% | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 政務司司長張建宗評分 | 43.5 | 43.2 | 38.0[6] | 40.1 | 32.1[6] | 31.8+/-2.1 | -0.3 |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長支持率 | 23% | 29%[6] | 26% | 28% | 18%[6] | 18+/-3% | -1% |
| 張建宗出任政務司司長反對率 | 29% | 32% | 38%[6] | 27%[6] | 41%[6] | 42+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -6% | -2% | -12%[6] | 1%[6] | -23%[6] | -24+/-6% | -1% |
| 財政司司長陳茂波評分 | 34.2[6] | 36.1 | 29.5[6] | 32.9[6] | 28.0[6] | 26.9+/-2.3 | -1.1 |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長支持率 | 16% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 17+/-3% | -2% |
| 陳茂波出任財政司司長反對率 | 51% | 47% | 57%[6] | 49%[6] | 55% | 59+/-4% | +5% |
| 支持率淨值 | -35% | -28% | -40%[6] | -30%[6] | -35% | -42+/-6% | -7% |
| 律政司司長鄭若驊評分 | 29.5[6] | 29.5 | 21.6[6] | 20.3 | 17.7 | 14.7+/-1.9 | -3.0[6] |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長支持率 | 11%[6] | 16%[6] | 10%[6] | 11% | 10% | 7+/-2% | -3% |
| 鄭若驊出任律政司司長反對率 | 52%[6] | 56% | 68%[6] | 63% | 68% | 75+/-3% | +7%[6] |
| 支持率淨值 | -41%[6] | -40% | -58%[6] | -53% | -59% | -69+/-5% | -10%[6] |
[6] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
以下是各問責局長的最新民望數字，按支持率淨值倒序排列[7]：
| 調查日期 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | 最新變化 |
| 樣本數目 | 601-643 | 572-624 | 609-689 | 583-633 | -- |
| 回應比率 | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| 最新結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果 | 結果及誤差 | -- |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長支持率 | 45% | 42% | 38% | 33+/-4% | -5% |
| 陳肇始出任食物及衛生局局長反對率 | 14% | 13% | 20%[8] | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | 32% | 30% | 18%[8] | 9+/-6% | -8% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長支持率 | 38% | 34% | 31% | 26+/-4% | -5% |
| 黃錦星出任環境局局長反對率 | 20% | 20% | 22% | 24+/-3% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 18% | 14% | 10% | 2+/-6% | -7% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長支持率 | 42% | 40% | 33%[8] | 31+/-4% | -2% |
| 邱騰華出任商務及經濟發展局局長反對率 | 13% | 13% | 23%[8] | 32+/-4% | +8%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 29% | 27% | 10%[8] | -1+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長支持率 | 22% | 23% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| 劉怡翔出任財經事務及庫務局局長反對率 | 14%[8] | 13% | 17%[8] | 22+/-3% | +5%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | 8%[8] | 11% | 2%[8] | -3+/-5% | -5% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長支持率 | 38% | 32%[8] | 30% | 25+/-4% | -5% |
| 羅致光出任勞工及福利局局長反對率 | 21% | 26% | 28% | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| 支持率淨值 | 17% | 6%[8] | 2% | -5+/-6% | -7% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長支持率 | 23% | 26% | 20%[8] | 17+/-3% | -4% |
| 黃偉綸出任發展局局長反對率 | 18%[8] | 19% | 21% | 25+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | 5%[8] | 6% | -1% | -9+/-5% | -8%[8] |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長支持率 | 35% | 25%[8] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| 羅智光出任公務員事務局局長反對率 | 19% | 25%[8] | 31%[8] | 32+/-4% | -- |
| 支持率淨值 | 16% | 0%[8] | -10%[8] | -11+/-6% | -1% |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長支持率 | 25% | 23% | 17%[8] | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| 楊偉雄出任創新及科技局局長反對率 | 27% | 26% | 33%[8] | 34+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -2% | -2% | -16%[8] | -16+/-6% | +1% |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長支持率 | 19% | 21% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| 聶德權出任政制及內地事務局局長反對率 | 30%[8] | 26% | 34%[8] | 43+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -11%[8] | -5% | -17%[8] | -26+/-6% | -9%[8] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長支持率 | 24% | 23% | 21% | 16+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| 陳帆出任運輸及房屋局局長反對率 | 38% | 35% | 43%[8] | 50+/-4% | +7%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -14% | -11% | -22%[8] | -34+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長支持率 | 21% | 18% | 15% | 14+/-3% | -1% |
| 劉江華出任民政事務局局長反對率 | 49%[8] | 49% | 57%[8] | 58+/-4% | +1% |
| 支持率淨值 | -28%[8] | -31% | -42%[8] | -43+/-6% | -2% |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長支持率 | 20% | 20% | 19% | 11+/-3% | -8%[8] |
| 楊潤雄出任教育局局長反對率 | 46%[8] | 39%[8] | 51%[8] | 60+/-4% | +10%[8] |
| 支持率淨值 | -26%[8] | -19% | -32%[8] | -50+/-6% | -18%[8] |
| 李家超出任保安局局長支持率 | 21%[8] | 20% | 17% | 14+/-3% | -3% |
| 李家超出任保安局局長反對率 | 59%[8] | 59% | 63% | 67+/-4% | +4% |
| 支持率淨值 | -38%[8] | -39% | -46% | -53+/-6% | -7% |
[7] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
[8] 該數字與上次調查結果的差異超過在95%置信水平的抽樣誤差，表示有關變化在統計學上表面成立。不過，變化在統計學上成立與否，並不等同有關變化是否有實際用途或意義，而不同調查的加權方法亦可能有所不同。
政府正式宣布引用《緊急法》訂立《禁蒙面法》前進行的最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分下跌2.6分至22.3，跌幅未超過抽樣誤差，其支持率為15%，反對率為80%，民望淨值顯著下跌8個百分點至負65，全部民望數字均創其上任特首以來新低。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分為31.8分，支持率為18%，反對率為42%，民望淨值為負24個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為26.9分，支持率為17%，反對率為59%，民望淨值為負42個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，支持度評分顯著下跌3.0分至14.7，支持率為7%，反對率為75%，民望淨值顯著下跌10個百分點至負69。除陳茂波的民望淨值外，各司長的支持度評分和民望淨值均創其上任以來新低。
局長方面，按支持率淨值排名首位的是食物及衛生局局長陳肇始，然後是環境局局長黃錦星。而商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔、勞工及福利局局長羅致光、發展局局長黃偉綸、公務員事務局局長羅智光、創新及科技局局長楊偉雄、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、民政事務局局長劉江華、教育局局長楊潤雄和保安局局長李家超的民望則出現負值。
對比一個月前，十三位局長中十二人的支持率淨值下跌，只有一人上升，當中教育局局長楊潤雄、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權和發展局局長黃偉綸的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，分別比上月下跌18、12、10、9和8個百分點。除環境局局長黃錦星和創新及科技局局長楊偉雄外，其他局長的支持率淨值均創其上任以來新低。
根據民研計劃的標準，沒有官員屬於「表現理想」或「表現成功」，陳肇始、邱騰華、黃錦星、羅致光、羅智光、楊偉雄、張建宗、聶德權及陳帆屬於「表現一般」，劉怡翔及黃偉綸屬於「表現不彰」，楊潤雄、陳茂波及劉江華屬於「表現失敗」，林鄭月娥、鄭若驊及李家超屬於「表現拙劣」。
以下是特首林鄭月娥及各問責官員民望級別總表：
| 「表現理想」：支持率超過66%者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 「表現成功」：支持率超過50%者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 「表現一般」：非其他五類者，以支持率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 食物及衛生局局長陳肇始（33%）；商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華（31%）；環境局局長黃錦星（26%）；勞工及福利局局長羅致光（25%）；公務員事務局局長羅智光（21%）；創新及科技局局長楊偉雄（18%）；政務司司長張建宗（18%）；政制及內地事務局局長聶德權（17%）；運輸及房屋局局長陳帆（16%） |
| 「表現不彰」：認知率不足50%者，以支持率排名[9]，括弧內第一數字為支持率，第二數字為認知率 |
| 財經事務及庫務局局長劉怡翔（19%，41%）；發展局局長黃偉綸（17%，42%） |
| 「表現失敗」：反對率超過50%者，以反對率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 教育局局長楊潤雄（60%）；財政司司長陳茂波（59%）；民政事務局局長劉江華（58%） |
| 「表現拙劣」：反對率超過66%者，以反對率排名[9]，即括弧內數字 |
| 特首林鄭月娥（80%）；律政司司長鄭若驊（75%）；保安局局長李家超（67%） |
[9] 如四捨五入後的數字相同，則會再考慮小數點後的數字。
民意日誌
民研計劃於2007年開始與慧科訊業有限公司合作，由慧科訊業按照民研計劃設計的分析方法，將每日大事記錄傳送至民研計劃，經民研計劃核實後成為「民意日誌」。
由於本新聞公報所涉及的調查項目，上次調查日期為2-4/9/2019，而今次調查日期則為30/9-3/10/2019，因此是次公報中的「民意日誌」項目便以上述日期為依歸，讓讀者作出比較。以涵蓋率不下25%本地報章每日頭條新聞和報社評論計，在上述期間發生的相關大事包括以下事件，讀者可以自行判斷有關事件有否影響各項民調數字，又或參閱「民意日誌」內所有大事記錄後，再作判斷：
| 3/10/19 | 政府擬按《緊急法》訂立《禁蒙面法》 |
| 1/10/19 | 全港多區出現示威及警民衝突，警方在荃灣使用實彈射傷一名示威者 |
| 29/9/19 | 反極權大遊行演變成多區警民衝突 |
| 28/9/19 | 民間人權陣線於添馬公園舉行集會，紀念雨傘運動五周年 |
| 26/9/19 | 林鄭月娥出席首場社區對話 |
| 22/9/19 | 沙田及全港多區出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 21/9/19 | 屯門及元朗出現示威及警民衝突 |
| 18/9/19 | 賽馬會以安全為由取消晚間賽事 |
| 15/9/19 | 港島遊行演變成警民衝突 |
| 14/9/19 | 手持國旗者與反修例者發生衝突 |
| 10/9/19 | 港鐵公開8.31閉路電視片段截圖 |
| 8/9/19 | 支持通過《香港人權及民主法案》的集會演變成警民衝突 |
| 7/9/19 | 反修例示威者發起堵塞機場及周邊道路 |
| 6/9/19 | 惠譽降低香港信貸評級 |
| 4/9/19 | 林鄭月娥宣佈正式撤回修訂《逃犯條例》草案 |
| 3/9/19 | 港澳辦就反修例運動召開記者會 |
| 2/9/19 | 中學及大學學生於開學日罷課 |
數據分析
政府正式宣布引用《緊急法》訂立《禁蒙面法》前進行的最新調查顯示，特首林鄭月娥的評分為22.3分，民望淨值為負65個百分點，兩者均再創其上任特首以來新低。
司長方面，政務司司長張建宗的最新支持度評分為31.8分，民望淨值為負24個百分點。財政司司長陳茂波的支持度評分為26.9分，民望淨值為負42個百分點。至於律政司司長鄭若驊，支持度評分為14.7分，民望淨值為負69個百分點。除陳茂波的民望淨值外，各司長的支持度評分和民望淨值均創其上任以來新低。
局長方面，除食物及衛生局局長陳肇始和環境局局長黃錦星外，其餘十一位局長的民望都出現負值。對比一個月前，十二位局長的支持率淨值下跌，只有一人上升，當中教育局局長楊潤雄、運輸及房屋局局長陳帆、商務及經濟發展局局長邱騰華、政制及內地事務局局長聶德權和發展局局長黃偉綸的支持率淨值變化超過抽樣誤差，分別比上月下跌18、12、10、9和8個百分點。除環境局局長黃錦星和創新及科技局局長楊偉雄外，其他局長的支持率淨值均創其上任以來新低。
Oct 8, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Press Conference Live
POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officials
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late September to early October. Results show that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.3 marks. Her net popularity is negative 65 percentage points. Both figures have registered record lows since she became CE. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks and net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office. As for the Directors of Bureaux, apart from Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, all other 11 Directors have registered negative popularities. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office. The effective response rate of the survey is 64.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 30/9-3/10/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 504 landline and 500 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 64.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.3 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method[4] | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] The landline and mobile sample ratio was revised to 2 to 1 in April 2018 and further revised to 1 to 1 in July 2019.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,002 | 1,015 | 1,023 | 1,046 | 1,061 | 1,004 | -- |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 62.8% | 68.5% | 69.5% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 30.1[5] | 27.9 | 24.6[5] | 25.4 | 24.9 | 22.3+/-1.9 | -2.6 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 21%[5] | 20% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 15+/-2% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 70%[5] | 72% | 76%[5] | 75% | 74% | 80+/-3% | +6%[5] |
| Net approval rate | -49%[5] | -51% | -59%[5] | -55% | -57% | -65+/-5% | -8%[5] |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 6-9/5/19 | 3-6/6/19 | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 592-642 | 553-616 | 583-641 | 574-580 | 640-679 | 584-649 | -- |
| Response rate | 63.2% | 60.4% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 43.5 | 43.2 | 38.0[6] | 40.1 | 32.1[6] | 31.8+/-2.1 | -0.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
23% | 29%[6] | 26% | 28% | 18%[6] | 18+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
29% | 32% | 38%[6] | 27%[6] | 41%[6] | 42+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -6% | -2% | -12%[6] | 1%[6] | -23%[6] | -24+/-6% | -1% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 34.2[6] | 36.1 | 29.5[6] | 32.9[6] | 28.0[6] | 26.9+/-2.3 | -1.1 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 16% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 19% | 17+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 51% | 47% | 57%[6] | 49%[6] | 55% | 59+/-4% | +5% |
| Net approval rate | -35% | -28% | -40%[6] | -30%[6] | -35% | -42+/-6% | -7% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 29.5[6] | 29.5 | 21.6[6] | 20.3 | 17.7 | 14.7+/-1.9 | -3.0[6] |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 11%[6] | 16%[6] | 10%[6] | 11% | 10% | 7+/-2% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 52%[6] | 56% | 68%[6] | 63% | 68% | 75+/-3% | +7%[6] |
| Net approval rate | -41%[6] | -40% | -58%[6] | -53% | -59% | -69+/-5% | -10%[6] |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates[7]:
| Date of survey | 2-8/7/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 2-4/9/19 | 30/9-3/10/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 601-643 | 572-624 | 609-689 | 583-633 | -- |
| Response rate | 67.4% | 62.8% | 69.5% | 64.5% | -- |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | -- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 45% | 42% | 38% | 33+/-4% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan | 14% | 13% | 20%[8] | 24+/-3% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | 32% | 30% | 18%[8] | 9+/-6% | -8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 38% | 34% | 31% | 26+/-4% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing | 20% | 20% | 22% | 24+/-3% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 18% | 14% | 10% | 2+/-6% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 42% | 40% | 33%[8] | 31+/-4% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau | 13% | 13% | 23%[8] | 32+/-4% | +8%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 29% | 27% | 10%[8] | -1+/-6% | -10%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 22% | 23% | 19% | 19+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau | 14%[8] | 13% | 17%[8] | 22+/-3% | +5%[8] |
| Net approval rate | 8%[8] | 11% | 2%[8] | -3+/-5% | -5% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 38% | 32%[8] | 30% | 25+/-4% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong | 21% | 26% | 28% | 30+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | 17% | 6%[8] | 2% | -5+/-6% | -7% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 23% | 26% | 20%[8] | 17+/-3% | -4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong | 18%[8] | 19% | 21% | 25+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | 5%[8] | 6% | -1% | -9+/-5% | -8%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 35% | 25%[8] | 21% | 21+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law | 19% | 25%[8] | 31%[8] | 32+/-4% | -- |
| Net approval rate | 16% | 0%[8] | -10%[8] | -11+/-6% | -1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 25% | 23% | 17%[8] | 18+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang | 27% | 26% | 33%[8] | 34+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -2% | -2% | -16%[8] | -16+/-6% | +1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 19% | 21% | 17% | 17+/-3% | -- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip | 30%[8] | 26% | 34%[8] | 43+/-4% | +9%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -11%[8] | -5% | -17%[8] | -26+/-6% | -9%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 24% | 23% | 21% | 16+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan | 38% | 35% | 43%[8] | 50+/-4% | +7%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -14% | -11% | -22%[8] | -34+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 21% | 18% | 15% | 14+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah | 49%[8] | 49% | 57%[8] | 58+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -28%[8] | -31% | -42%[8] | -43+/-6% | -2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 20% | 20% | 19% | 11+/-3% | -8%[8] |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung | 46%[8] | 39%[8] | 51%[8] | 60+/-4% | +10%[8] |
| Net approval rate | -26%[8] | -19% | -32%[8] | -50+/-6% | -18%[8] |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 21%[8] | 20% | 17% | 14+/-3% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee | 59%[8] | 59% | 63% | 67+/-4% | +4% |
| Net approval rate | -38%[8] | -39% | -46% | -53+/-6% | -7% |
[7] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey conducted before the government officially announced the enactment of anti-mask law by invoking emergency law shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has dropped by 2.6 marks to 22.3, but the change has not gone beyond sampling error. Her approval rate is 15%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 65 percentage points, a significant drop of 8 percentage points. All popularity figures have registered record lows since she became CE.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks, approval rate 18%, disapproval rate 42%, giving a net popularity of negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 59%, thus a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating has dropped significantly by 3.0 marks to 14.7, approval rate 7%, disapproval rate 75%, giving a net popularity of negative 69 percentage points, a significant drop of 10 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, followed by Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Security John Lee register negative popularities.
Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 among 13 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang, Matthew Cheung, Patrick Nip and Frank Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of James Lau and Michael Wong can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Kevin Yeung, Paul Chan and Lau Kong-wah fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and John Lee fall into that of “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials:
| “Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| “Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (33%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (31%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (26%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (25%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (21%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (18%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (18%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (17%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (16%) |
| “Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates[9]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (19%, 41%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (17%, 42%) |
| “Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (60%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (59%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (58%) |
| “Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets[9] |
| CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (80%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (75%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (67%) |
[9] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 2 to 4 September, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 30 September to 3 October, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 3/10/19 | The government plans to enact anti-mask law by invoking emergency law. |
| 1/10/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in multiple districts in Hong Kong, the police shoots a protester with a live bullet in Tsuen Wan. |
| 29/9/19 | Anti-totalitarianism rally turns into conflicts between protestors and the police in multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 28/9/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes a rally at Tamar Park to commemorate 5th anniversary of Umbrella Movement. |
| 26/9/19 | Carrie Lam attends the first Community Dialogue session. |
| 22/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Shatin and multiple districts in Hong Kong. |
| 21/9/19 | Protests and conflicts between protestors and the police occur in Tuen Mun and Yuen Long. |
| 18/9/19 | The Jockey Club cancels night race due to safety concerns. |
| 15/9/19 | Protest on Hong Kong Island turns into conflicts between protestors and the police. |
| 14/9/19 | Conflicts occur between people with the national flag and those against the extradition bill. |
| 10/9/19 | MTR releases screenshots of 8.31 CCTV footage. |
| 8/9/19 | Rally in support of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act turns into conflicts between protestors and the police. |
| 7/9/19 | Anti-extradition bill protesters call for blocking the airport and nearby roads. |
| 6/9/19 | Fitch Ratings downgrades Hong Kong’s credit rating. |
| 4/9/19 | Carrie Lam announces the formal withdrawal of the extradition bill. |
| 3/9/19 | The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office holds a press conference regarding the anti-extradition bill movement. |
| 2/9/19 | Secondary and tertiary students boycott class on first day of school. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey conducted before the government officially announces the enactment of anti-mask law by invoking emergency law shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 22.3 marks. Her net popularity is negative 65 percentage points. Both figures have registered record lows since she became CE.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 31.8 marks and net popularity is negative 24 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 26.9 marks and his net popularity is negative 42 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 14.7 marks and her net popularity is negative 69 percentage points. Apart from the net popularity of Paul Chan, the support rating and net popularity of all Secretaries of Departments have registered record lows since they took office.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, apart from Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan and Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, all other 11 Directors have registered negative popularities. Compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 12 Directors have gone down and only 1 has gone up. Those of Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Development Michael Wong have changed beyond sampling errors, dropped 18, 12, 10, 9 and 8 percentage points respectively. Apart from Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing and Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, the net approval rates of all other Directors of Bureaux have registered record lows since they took office.
